Tag: General MMA betting

UFC Light Heavyweight Title Bout:  Jon Jone svs. Chael Sonnen

Odds:  ( -800 Jones / +500 Sonnen )

Betting Pick:  Jones

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In the main event of UFC 159, Light Heavyweight champion Jon “Bones” Jones will defend his crown against Chael Sonnen, the one-man hype machine and former Middleweight title challenger. Sonnen talked his way into this fight with a series of verbal barbs directed at Jones, but he is moving back up in weight to 205 to fight the largest man in the history of the Light Heavyweight division. Sonnen has proven beyond a doubt that he isn’t all talk, but this is a pretty huge step up for him in terms of sheer physical size. Jones isn’t just huge, he’s sublimely talented, so Sonnen is going to have his hands full if he wants to cash the check his mouth wrote.

Chael Sonnen is known for his over-the-top persona and his dominant wrestling and top game. Sonnen has some of the most effective takedowns in the sport and is extremely effective at controlling position and dealing damage from top position. Over the last few years, he’s added some solid boxing to his repertoire as well. Sonnen’s Achilles heel has always been his submission defense. Over and over, Sonnen has controlled fights with dominant wrestling only to succumb to an armbar or a triangle choke. I don’t foresee Jones submitting Sonnen off his back, but if Sonnen gives up too much position trying to force the larger man to the mat, he could be vulnerable to Jones’ grappling.

Jon “Bones” Jones, the Light Heavyweight champion, possesses a disturbing mixture of physical gifts and technical prowess. Jones’ reach is the stuff of legend, and he is an absurdly large, strong, and fast fighter for 205 pounds. Not only that, he is a dominant wrestler and an effective striker who is constantly improving both standing and on the ground. Against Sonnen, I think he just needs to fight smart. He is an accomplished wrestler who will enjoy a massive size and strength advantage, so it’s unlikely that he will allow Sonnen to impose his will on him. In a standup fight, Jones has far more tools and far more power to make Sonnen pay for his inability to secure takedowns.

Chael Sonnen is a world-class fighter, but this is a ridiculous mismatch. Sonnen is coming off a decisive loss to Middleweight champion Anderson Silva, and now he is facing a much larger opponent who is not only just as dominant as Silva, but one who is much more capable of neutralizing Sonnen’s strengths. Sonnen was outgunned against Silva, but at least he could depend on being the better wrestler. Against Jones, who is a far better wrestler than Silva and much larger than Sonnen, he won’t enjoy that luxury. I think Sonnen will realize very early that Jones isn’t going to be worn down and that he is stuck in a standup fight. Eventually, the reach and striking disadvantage will be more than he can overcome. Jones by T/KO.

Prediction:  Jon Jones by second round T/KO.

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UFC Welterweight bout:  Michael Bisping vs. Alan Belcher

Odds:  (-170 Bisping /+140 Belcher )

Betting Pick:  Belcher

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In the semi-main event of UFC 159, skilled Middleweight veterans Michael “The Count” Bisping and Alan “The Talent” Belcher will each look to rebound from a loss in their last fights. Both of these guys have been around the UFC for years and have proven track records of success against quality opponents. Neither guy is in the immediate title picture, but two losses in a row doesn’t bode well for anyone’s UFC future, so there is a lot on the line here for both fighters.

Michael “The Count” Bisping has been a top contender at both Light Heavyweight and Middleweight over the last few years. What makes Bisping so interesting is that he is a fighter who relies heavily on his striking but lacks significant punching power. Similarly, he has a very solid submission grappling game but lacks really powerful wrestling to set it up with. What has made Bisping so effective is his technical prowess, his speed, and his lack of hugely glaring holes.

Alan “The Talent” Belcher is one of the best-rounded Middleweights in the UFC. He isn’t one of the best strikers, wrestlers, or grapplers in the world but he is accomplished in every aspect of the fight game and doesn’t really have any big weak points either. One advantage Belcher will enjoy is superior wrestling and physical power.

This is a really tough fight to call just because both guys are similarly well-rounded and neither one has a glaring stylistic or physical advantage. Bisping is probably a little better on the feet and Belcher a little better on the ground. Still, this is going to come down to who can get their feet under them quicker. I think that Belcher makes a fairly attractive underdog pick. He’s got a solid chin and Bisping isn’t going to be able to finish him, and I think that Belcher might surprise people with his ability to take Bisping down. In the end, I think Belcher will do enough to earn a narrow upset victory.

Prediction:  Alan Belcher by Decision.

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UFC Heavyweight bout:  Roy Nelson vs. Cheick Kongo

Odds: (-230 Nelson /+180 Kongo )

Betting Pick:  Nelson

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In a featured Heavyweight matchup, two skilled strikers will go at it as Roy “Big Country” Nelson faces French kickboxer Cheick Kongo. Both of these guys have solid chins and dangerous punching power, which means that this should be an exciting fight. Not only that, both of these guys have very underrated wrestling and top control, which means that they are very evenly matched.

Cheick Kongo is a very dangerous offensive fighter who combines great technical striking, solid punching power, underrated wrestling, and destructive ground and pound. He has the ability to end fights standing or from top position and every strike he throws has fight-ending potential. Where Kongo struggles is in dealing with opponents who won’t let him dictate the pace and position of the fight. When put in a disadvantageous position, Kongo tends to struggle.

Roy Nelson doesn’t look the part of a world-class fighter, but judging a book by its cover is never a good idea. Nelson has a granite chin and a surplus of punching power. In addition, he is a very solid wrestler with great jiu-jitsu who has mastered using his bulk to control opponents from top position. Against Kongo, it is very possible that he could win a striking match, but I think his ability to put Kongo on his back and control how the fight plays out is his best weapon.

This is a close matchup, but I give the edge to Nelson pretty much however this fight plays out. I think on the feet Nelson’s bullying style will prevent Kongo from taking control, and I think that Nelson has the added safety valve of being able to secure a takedown whenever he needs to. Ultimately, I don’t think Kongo will be able to mount enough offense, and Nelson will walk away with the unanimous decision victory.

Prediction:  Roy Nelson by Unanimous Decision.

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UFC Lightweight Title Bout:  Ben Henderson vs. Gil Melendez

Odds:  ( -325 Henderson / +250 Melendez )

Betting Pick:  Melendez

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The main event of UFC on FOX 7 features a historic clash of the champions, as UFC Lightweight Champion Benson “Smooth” Henderson and Strikeforce Lightweight champion Gilbert “El Nino” Melendez will square off to determine who the greatest 155 pounder in the world really is. Both of these guys have thrived against the best opponents in the world, and now they’re set to face their toughest challenge yet with millions of people watching live on network television. These are the two best Lightweights in the world duking it out in their prime, so this has all the makings of an instant classic.

Gilbert “El Nino” Melendez has been one of the top figures in the Lightweight division for years now, and is universally recognized as the best 155er outside of the UFC. Now, he’ll get a chance to see how his heavy-handed ground and pound, solid wrestling, and dangerous submissions stack up inside the Octagon. Melendez has never been finished in his career and his only loss since 2007 was to Josh Thomson in a narrow decision which he avenged twice. What makes Melendez is so dangerous is how complete a fighter he is. He has good hands, good wrestling, good jiu-jitsu, and an effective clinch game. Melendez isn’t just comfortable in any position, he is a threat to finish fights in any position.

Benson “Smooth” Henderson has firmly cemented himself atop UFC’s Lightweight division with back-to-back wins over Frankie Edgar and an utter destruction of Nate Diaz. Henderson is an impressive physical specimen who is adroit at tailoring his gameplan to exploit his opponents’ weaknesses. When he has to, Henderson can push the pace, let his hands go, and fight relentlessly for five rounds. He also has the ability to slow a fight down and use his strength to dictate pace and grind his opponents down, a strategy he employed masterfully against Diaz. Against Melendez, he will definitely be the stronger and better-conditioned fighter, so he just needs to avoid making any huge errors.

This is a tough fight to call since both guys are so accomplished and they have similarly well-rounded fighting styles. I don’t think there’s any question that Henderson is stronger and has better cardio, but I think Melendez is the more technical of the two fighters and is more dangerous in more positions. Some critics will point to Melendez’s lackluster performance in his rubber match against Josh Thomson, but I think that can be chalked up to his general disinterest in fighting for Strikeforce or facing Thomson again. I think his UFC debut and a shot at the gold will bring out a rejuvenated Melendez, who will surprise Henderson on the feet and prove tough to deal with if the fight goes to the ground. I think Melendez does enough to pick up the upset unanimous decision victory.

Prediction:  Gilbert Melendez by Unanimous Decision.

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