Tag: General MMA betting

UFC Heavyweight Bout:  Frank Mir vs. Daniel Cormier

Odds:  ( +325 Mir / -450 Cormier )

Betting Pick:  Cormier

Bet on this fight at Bovada

In a featured Heavyweight showdown, former UFC Heavyweight champion Frank Mir will attempt to spoil the UFC debut of highly-touted Strikeforce prospect Daniel Cormier. Mir has proven that he is a dangerous fighter both standing and on the ground, but if he wants to put the first blemish on Cormier’s undefeated record, he is going to have to find a way to deal with Cormier’s dominant wrestling and destructive punching power. Cormier is coming off yet another hand injury, so it remains to be seen whether he will be able to box the way he usually does, but if he is healthy, Mir is going to have his hands full.

Frank Mir, the former UFC Heavyweight champion, has settled into a gatekeeper role in the Heavyweight division. He’ll never be in the title picture again, but his solid boxing, world-class jiu-jitsu, and years of experience make him a formidable test for any fighter with title aspirations. Mir has extremely good jiu-jitsu for a Heavyweight, and has grown into a formidable striker over the last few years as well. If there is a weakness in Mir’s game, though, it is his tendency to overestimate his own striking prowess at the expense of utilizing his ground game. Against Cormier, who has dynamite in both hands, that might well prove a fatal mistake.

Daniel Cormier is without a doubt the Heavyweight division’s most intriguing undefeated prospect. A two-time Olympic wrestler, Cormier brought a sterling grappling pedigree into the sport with him, but it is his punching power that has made him a force to be reckoned with in Mixed Martial Arts. Cormier is a dangerous boxer who can put opponents to sleep with either hand, and the fact that he is an Olympic wrestler makes him extremely hard to take down. His ability to completely dictate the positioning of a fight and the fact that every punch he throws might be a fight-ender makes him a tough opponent for anyone.

Put simply, I don’t think Mir has much chance in this one. He is a bigger guy, but I think Cormier’s vastly superior wrestling makes it unlikely that Mir will be able to use his bulk to much advantage. Either way, Mir has shown an unfortunate willingness to stand with opponents he shouldn’t stand with. I think Mir will willingly engage Cormier in a standup fight here, and he will pay the price. Cormier by T/KO.

Prediction:  Daniel Cormier by second round T/KO.

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UFC Heavyweight Bout:  Travis Browne vs. Gabriel Gonzaga

Odds: (-285  Browne /+225  Gonzaga )

Betting Pick:  Browne

Bet on this fight at Bovada

In a featured Heavyweight matchup, two huge, heavy-handed grapplers will do battle as Travis “Hapa” Browne faces off against Gabriel “Napao” Gonzaga. In addition to being gigantic physical specimens with huge knockout power, these two happen to be two of the Heavyweight division’s premier submission grapplers. Whether this one plays out standing or on the ground, it’s sure to be an exciting clash between two gigantic and powerful fighters.

Gabriel “Napao” Gonzaga is an enormous, powerful Heavyweight with heavy hands, powerful kicks, and excellent jiu-jitsu in a variety of positions. While his most memorable victory is his stunning head-kick knockout of Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic, Gonzaga has amassed a highlight reel of submission finishes and is currently riding a streak of three straight submission wins. Against Browne, I think the ground game is the way to go, because even though Gonzaga packs a mean punch, he can’t match Browne when it comes to punch-for-punch power.

Travis “Hapa” Browne, at 6’7” and 250 pounds, is an enormous Heavyweight with a surplus of knockout power. Although he is coming off the first loss of his professional career, he has proven that with his one-punch knockout power and high-level submission grappling, he is a force to be reckoned with in the Heavyweight division. As good as Browne is on the ground, I think he will look to keep this fight standing, where the gap between him and Gonzaga is the widest. While it’s possible that Browne could out-grapple Gonzaga, I think he has a big enough advantage on the feet that he shouldn’t have to.

In the end, I think this is a good style matchup for Browne. For one thing, his size and grappling ability should enable him to neutralize some of Gonzaga’s submission offense. For another, fights start standing. I think Browne will enjoy a huge advantage in the striking, and Gonzaga is going to have to navigate a minefield of power punches to close the gap and set up takedowns. Ultimately, Browne’s power will pull him through to a TKO victory.

Prediction:  Travis “Hapa” Browne by second round TKO.

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UFC Bantamweight Bout:  Urijah Faber vs. Scott Jorgensen

Odds: ( -450 Faber / +325 Jorgensen )

Betting Pick:  Faber

Bet on this fight at Bovada

In the main event of UFC’s Ultimate Fighter 17 Finale, former WEC poster boy Urijah Faber will square off against tough-as-nails veteran Scott Jorgensen in a Bantamweight showdown. Faber was once the most feared 145 pound fighter in the world, but he hasn’t looked like his old self lately. Still, he is a very dangerous fighter with solid wrestling, good hands, and a wealth of experience, so if Jorgensen wants to pull off the upset he is going to have his hands full.

Scott “Young Guns” Jorgensen is a tough, durable veteran who has acquitted himself well against top-level competition for years. He’s a skilled grappler with dangerous submission skills and solid wrestling, and his boxing is decent but lacks power. He can hold his own in a boxing match, but I don’t think standing and trying to trade with the more-explosive Faber is really his best option. Faber is extremely versatile and a threat to finish everywhere, so if Jorgensen wants a win here he is going to need to move from range to range well, scoring his points where he can and never allowing Faber to get comfortable.

Since his glory days atop the WEC, Urijah Faber has lost a step or two. Consistent losses to championship-caliber competition have made it clear that the days of Faber as a top dog are over, but he is the perfect gatekeeper for a quickly-growing division. Faber has only lost to guys who were at the top of their divisions at the time, and can still consistently dominate mid-level competition.

In the end, unfortunately for him, Scott Jorgensen is mid-level competition. He’s not threatening enough in any one area to impose his will on a veteran like Faber, and if he tries to employ a versatile gameplan, he will find himself getting outfought standing and on the ground by a superior fighter with more experience. I don’t see a way for Jorgensen to avoid getting controlled and outscored. Faber by unanimous decision.

Prediction:  “The California Kid” Urijah Faber by Unanimous Decision.

To Add a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bovada.Iv Odds. Check out my review of Bovada here…

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On Saturday, April 13, 2013, The Ultimate Fighter: Jones vs. Sonnen Finale will hit the airwaves live from The Joint at the Hard Rock Hotel & Casino in Las Vegas, Nevada. In addition to the finale itself, which will crown another Ultimate Fighter and bestow another fabled six-figure check, the show will feature a 135 pound showdown between former WEC champion Urijah Faber and talented veteran Scott “Young Guns” Jorgensen. Jorgensen is supremely talented but prone to turning in uneven performances. If he wants a win over Faber, which would be one of the biggest of his career, he is going to need to show up in top form come fight night.

Main Card:

Urijah Faber vs. Scott Jorgensen

Bovada.Iv Odds

• Faber             (-450)
• Jorgensen    (+325)

Betonline.com Odds

• Faber          (-450)
  
• Jorgensen  (+375)
  

Urijah Hall vs. Kelvin Gastelum

Bovada.Iv Odds

• Hall             (-375)
• Gastelum  (+285)

Betonline.com Odds

• Hall             (-350)
• Gastelum  (+290)
  

Miesha Tate vs. Kat Zingano

Bovada.Iv Odds

• Tate          (-130)
• Zingano   (+100)

Grabriel Gonzaga vs. Travis Browne

Bovada.Iv Odds

• Gonzaga   (+225)
• Browne    (-285)

Betonline.com Odds

• Gonzaga   (+240)
• Browne     (-285)
  

Preliminary Card:

Cole Miller vs. Bart Palaszewski

Bovada.Iv Odds

• Miller              (+150)
• Palaszewski  (-185)

Justin Lawrence vs. Daniel Pineda

Bovada.Iv Odds

• Lawrence   (-105)
• Pineda         (-125)

Sam Sicilia vs. Maximo Blanco

Bovada.Iv Odds

• Sicilia    (+180)
• Blanco   (-230)

In another featured bout, Strikeforce veteran Miesha Tate will square off against Cat Zingano with a coaching spot on a co-ed season of The Ultimate Fighter on the line. A win here means huge television exposure and a title fight against Ronda Rousey, so the stakes here could not be higher. Also featured is a Heavyweight showdown between Travis “Hapa” Browne and Gabriel “Napao” Gonzaga. These are huge men with knockout power and some of the best grappling in the division, so this has all the makings of a competitive and exciting fight.

Make sure to Check back with us closer to fight night as I will have updated TUF 17 Finale Odds plus Fight Predictions.  And to add a little excitement to your fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bovada.Iv Odds.