Tag: General MMA betting

UFC Welterweight Bout:  Jake Ellenberger vs. Nate Marquardt

Odds:  ( -170 Ellenberger / +140 Marquardt )

Betting Pick:  Ellenberger

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In a featured Welterweight showdown, Nate “The Great” Marquardt returns to the UFC to square off against long-time veteran Jake “The Juggernaut” Ellenberger. In a lot of ways, these guys have similar styles, with solid wrestling and good punching to go along with it. Marquardt, though, is the more technique-oriented fighter and has a much better ground game, while Ellenberger is the stronger and more physically imposing of the two. Can Marquardt’s technique trump Ellenberger’s physical power and dominant wrestling?

Jake “The Juggernaut” Ellenberger is a very dangerous and heavy-handed wrestler who does a great job of using his imposing physical presence and wrestling ability to control his opponents and soften them up for the knockout. He is equally adept at throwing big power punches and using the clinch and the cage to control the pace of a bout. While he is a long way from the UFC Welterweight division’s most technical fighter, he is a dangerous guy to have on top of you and every punch he throws has mean intentions. There is no doubt that he is a better wrestler than Marquardt, or that he has heavier hands. He just has to fight smart and not give Marquardt any big openings that he can exploit.

Nate “The Great” Marquardt is one of the UFC’s most skilled and experienced Welterweights. Since starting his professional career in 1999, Marquardt has fought many of the best fighters in the world at locations all over the globe. What makes Marquardt special is that he is a very complete fighter and he is especially adept at making his opponents pay for mistakes. Against Ellenberger, he is going to be somewhat overmatched in terms of physicality, so he is going to have to do the most with his technique in order to keep Ellenberger off his game.

This is another tough fight to call, but I think the edge has to go to Ellenberger. Marquardt looked distinctly underwhelming in his last out, a decision loss to Tarec Saffiedine in Strikeforce. I think Ellenberger is big enough, strong enough, and a good enough wrestler that Marquardt is going to have a hard time establishing his offense. One of Marquardt’s biggest advantages is his experience, but Ellenberger has been around the block almost as many times as he has. Ultimately, I think Marquardt’s best days are sadly behind him, and in his present state I don’t think he can overcome Ellenberger’s superior strength and ability to dictate the pace and position of the fight. Ellenberger by unanimous decision.

Prediction:  Jake Ellenberger by Unanimous Decision.

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UFC Welterweight Title Bout:  Georges St-Pierre vs. Nick Diaz

Odds:  ( -500 St-Pierre / +350 Diaz )

Betting Pick:  St-Pierre

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In the main event of UFC 158, UFC Welterweight champion Georges “Rush” St. Pierre will look to defend his title against Stockton, California’s Nick Diaz. St. Pierre is one of the most dominant champions in the history of the sport, but Diaz has grown into a feared finisher who can end fights with his difficult-to-defend, high-volume striking or with his submissions, which are devastating from every position. If Diaz wants to leave the Octagon with a UFC title, though, he is going to have to find a way to neutralize the dominant wrestling and top control that have made St. Pierre such a legend.

Nick Diaz has had a long career with a lot of ups and downs, but over the last few years he has firmly cemented himself as one of the world’s top Welterweights. Diaz was always one of the most prolific grapplers in the world at 170 pounds, but now he has grown into a dangerous striker as well. Diaz isn’t the hardest puncher in the world, but he makes up for it with ridiculous accuracy, hand speed, and footwork. Diaz slips a shot past his opponent’s guard, then another, then another, until they are overwhelmed by the sheer volume of rapid-fire punches headed toward them. Diaz’s biggest problem has always been dealing with wrestlers. His takedown defense is historically quite porous, and he struggles underneath dominant wrestlers with good submission defense. If he plans on capturing St. Pierre’s title, he is going to have to find a way to gameplan for St. Pierre’s outstanding top control.

Were it not for Anderson Silva, Georges St. Pierre would probably be considered the most dominant champion in the sport’s history and the world’s #1 pound-for-pound fighter. Early in his career, St. Pierre was a dominant, athletic fighter who could hurt opponents with his hands and feet as well as his wrestling. Since suffering a shocking upset loss at the hands of Matt Serra, though, St. Pierre has relied increasingly on his wrestling and top control to keep himself safe while dominating his opponents. Against Diaz, I don’t think there is any chance of St. Pierre engaging in a boxing match for any period of time. He will go with what has made him so successful and try to work over Diaz from top position without giving him a chance to get his striking game going.

There’s no question that Nick Diaz is a dangerous fighter who has the tools to finish his opponents standing and on the ground, but this is a nightmarish style matchup for him. The only opponents Diaz has consistently struggled against are dominant, physical wrestlers with good top control and submission defense. If there is a prototype for dominant, physical wrestlers with good top control and submission defense, it is Georges St. Pierre. I don’t see a way for Diaz to keep St. Pierre from taking him down and controlling the action. His only hope is to capitalize on a mistake off his back and secure a submission. As good as St. Pierre’s jiu-jitsu is, I don’t see it happening. More likely St. Pierre will use his superior strength and wrestling to force Diaz into disadvantageous positions en route to a unanimous decision win.

Prediction:  Georges St-Pierre by Unanimous Decision.

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UFC Light Heavyweight Bout:  Wanderlei Silva vs. Brian Stann

Odds:  ( +230 Silva / -300 Stann )

Betting Pick:  Stann

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In the main event of UFC on FUEL TV 8, former PRIDE FC champion Wanderlei “The Axe Murderer” Silva will square off against heavy-handed slugger Brian “All American” Stann. Silva, once one of the most feared men on the planet, has definitely lost a couple of steps since his prime, but he is still an aggressive, dangerous striker whose push-forward-at-all-costs style makes for exciting fights. Stann, for his part, will be more than willing to oblige Silva in his desire for a no-holds-barred slugfest, so this is a fight that promises serious fireworks.

Wanderlei “The Axe Murderer” Silva will be making his return to the Saitama Super Arena, which played host to so many of his legendary destructions. Silva, with his hyper-aggressive style and devastating clinch attack, once ruled PRIDE FC with an iron fist. Now, his best days are behind him, but he still packs a mean punch and continually moves forward and keeps his opponents on the defensive. Against Stann, he will attempt to employ the same strategy he has been using for years: seek and destroy. Silva will press the pace bell to bell, throwing punches and stalking Stann if he isn’t willing to stand and trade.

Brian “All American” Stann has had some ups and downs in his UFC career, but he is a solid boxer who has the potential to put any of his opponents to sleep. He backs up his boxing with a solid wrestling game, but there is no question that Stann is a guy who relies on big power punches for his success. Against Silva, he will be the younger and more physically imposing fighter. If he fights smart at all, he has all the tools to take a win here. He just has to keep Silva from goading him into a reckless brawl, where anything could happen.

Wanderlei Silva in his prime would have destroyed Brian Stann on the best day of his career, but Silva’s prime is long since passed. Now, Stann is the bigger, younger, and stronger of the two, and probably the harder puncher as well. I don’t think Silva has what it takes to knock Stann out early, and as he fades later into the fight I expect Stann to take control with superior jabs and footwork, work in some clinches, and do enough to earn the unanimous decision victory.

Prediction:  Brian Stann by Unanimous Decision.

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UFC Womens Bantamweight Title Fight:  Ronda Rousey vs. Liz Carmouche

Odds:  ( -1000 Rousey / +600 Carmouche )

Betting Pick: Rousey (Parlay Bet only)

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The main event of UFC 157 will feature a historic first, as two women square off in the Octagon for the first time in the company’s history. Liz Carmouche is a savvy and experienced veteran, but Rousey has cemented herself as the face of women’s MMA with her aggressive grappling style and propensity for finishing fights and finishing them early. If Carmouche wants to spoil Rousey’s big show debut, she is going to have to do what no one else has managed: keep Rousey from taking her down and submitting her at will.

Liz “Girl-rilla” Carmouche is a versatile fighter with a lot of experience. After two disappointing losses, she strung together two equally impressive wins to send her into the Octagon riding a small streak. Although she has some quality wins, her best performance probably came in a loss to prolific grappler Marloes Coenen in Strikeforce. Carmouche dominated the entirety of the fight until getting caught in a triangle choke in the fourth round. Against Rousey, it is entirely likely that Carmouche is going to be the better striker. She just has to find a way to keep Rousey from clinching or shooting for takedowns, which is a tall order to put it mildly.

Ronda Rousey, a former Olympic bronze medalist in Judo, is without a doubt the fastest-rising star in Mixed Martial Arts. While fans have clamored for a high-profile showdown between Rousey and human wrecking machine “Cyborg” Santos, Rousey has routinely dispatched everyone she has faced with what appears to be absurd ease. Rousey has nine fights under her belt, six of them as a professional, and has won every single one of those fights by armbar. As if that weren’t ridiculous enough, all 9 of those armbar wins came in the first round, and all but one came within the first minute. Clearly, Rousey’s ground game is on a whole different level, and this fight will pretty much depend on whether Carmouche has some secret takedown defense method that eluded all of Rousey’s other opponents.

Basically, for Carmouche to win, she is going to have to never get clinched or taken down, and that just isn’t going to happen. I don’t see a way for Carmouche to keep this fight standing and I certainly don’t see a way for her to survive on the ground with Rousey. I’m going to make a bold prediction here and say Rousey wins by armbar in the first round.

Prediction: Ronda Rousey by first round armbar.

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