Tag: General MMA betting

UFC Light Heavyweight Bout:  Dan Henderson vs. Lyoto Machida

Odds:  ( +190 Henderson / -240 Machida )

Betting Pick:  Hendo

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In the semi-main event of the evening, for UFC Light Heavyweight champion Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida will square off against former two-division PRIDE FC champion Dan “Hollywood” Henderson. Both of these guys have competed for years at the highest levels of the sport, and this is a very interesting style matchup. Can Machida’s speed, quickness, and technique beat Henderson’s power, strength, and wrestling?

Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida fought his way to the top of the UFC Light Heavyweight division with an elusive counter-punching style that confounded his opponents. While he has looked much more vulnerable in his last few outings, he is nevertheless a very dangerous technical striker who is hard to keep up with and who can make opponents pay for getting too aggressive. Against Henderson, he is definitely going to have to stick and move, because he lacks the physicality to come out ahead in a clinch battle and if he lets Henderson land a huge haymaker he is done for. If he can stay on the outside and test Henderson’s gas tank while landing quick, accurate punches, though, he could very well frustrate and tire his opponent out and take the fight over in the later rounds.

Dan “Hollywood” Henderson is a long-time veteran who has had a very successful career at both 185 and 205 pounds. Originally a wrestler, Henderson possesses one of the most effective clinch games in the sport. He is very adept at using the cage to control position and landing short punches on the inside. Unfortunately for his opponents, he is also very adept at destroying people with huge power shots. Henderson is getting up there in years and has developed a tendency to tire out later into his fights, but when he is pushing you up against the cage or tying you up, there is not a lot to be done about it.

If this were a five round fight, I would give the edge to Machida. He clearly has a superior gas tank and is both quicker and lighter on his feet than Henderson. I could see him using his movement and quick hands to punish Henderson as he tried to initiate a clinch fight. In a three round fight, though, I think Henderson will have energy to make it difficult for Machida to really get his offense going. If Machida is too defensive and backpedals while Henderson stalks him, he could well give away a decision. If he tries to fight more aggressively, I think Henderson will clinch him up, work him over, and control position well enough to earn the nod. Either way it plays out, I think Henderson takes a narrow decision in a competitive fight.

Prediction: Dan Henderson by Unanimous Decision.

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UFC Heavyweight Bout:  Alistair Overeem vs. Bigfoot Silva

Odds:  ( -400 Overeem / +300 Silva )

Betting Pick:  Overeem

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n a featured Heavyweight matchup, two former Strikeforce Heavyweight champions will square off as Alistair Overeem returns from a steroid suspension to fight Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva. These are two of the biggest, strongest Heavyweights on the planet, so this fight promises fireworks. Overeem was set for a shot at the title before failing a drug test, so a win here will probably result in an immediate shot at Cain Velasquez.

Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva is a huge, heavy-handed slugger with solid wrestling and excellent jiu-jitsu. His ground and pound from top position is devastating, and every punch he throws on his feet has fight-ending potential. Against Overeem, I think Silva is going to have to find a way to get this fight to the ground. Overeem is huge and muscle-bound and ill-equipped to work off of his back. Silva will have a massive advantage if he can find a way to get this fight on the mat, and he’s going to need it. On the feet, Silva is dangerous, but against Overeem he will get destroyed in a boxing match.

Alistair Overeem is without a doubt one of the UFC’s most feared Heavyweight strikers. Overeem’s punching and kicking are utterly destructive, and he can annihilate guys in the clinch as well. A former K-1 World Grand Prix champion, Overeem is a match for anyone in the world in a kickboxing bout. What often goes overlooked is Overeem’s wrestling, which is extremely effective. He is great at getting in close and changing levels fast for quick double legs, and he is extremely dangerous from the top. It would be unwise for him to take Silva down when he has such a clear advantage on the feet, but if he can use his wrestling defensively to force a boxing match he is likely to win.

This is just a terrible style matchup for Silva. He’s a dangerous striker, but Overeem is not only more powerful, he is hugely technically superior as well. Silva no doubt has the better ground game, but I think Overeem is also the better wrestler of the two by a significant margin. I don’t see a way for Silva to take this fight to the ground, and I don’t see a way for him to a kickboxing match with Overeem. Eventually, Silva is going to be exposed on the feet. Overeem by T/KO.

Prediction: Alistair Overeem by second round T/KO.

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UFC Featherweight Title Bout:  Jose Aldo vs. Frankie Edgar

Odds:  ( -210 Aldo / +170 Edgar )

Betting Pick:  Aldo

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In the main event of UFC 156, former UFC Lightweight champion Frankie “The Answer” Edgar will challenge UFC Featherweight champion Jose “Scarface” Aldo. Edgar, despite being undersized at Lightweight, cemented himself as a top figure with two impressive wins over BJ Penn before dropping two controversial decisions to current UFC Lightweight champion Benson Henderson. The entire fight world is curious to see how Edgar performs at his more natural weight of 145, but if he wants to capture a belt in a second division he is going to have to find an answer for Aldo’s devastating striking and notoriously tough takedown defense.

Frankie “The Answer” Edgar was clearly one of the best Lightweights in the world, so seeing him perform at his natural weight is an exciting prospect. He cemented himself as champion by using his footwork, hand speed, and boxing to totally overwhelm former champion BJ Penn. What makes Edgar so dangerous is that he is very difficult to outbox, but he also has dominant wrestling and a smothering top game to back it up. The only opponents who have really managed to figure Edgar out are guys capable of outwrestling him who also have decent enough boxing to hang on their feet. Against Aldo, it is never the best idea to stand and try to trade with him. If Edgar wants to join Penn and Randy Couture in the two-division champion’s club, he is going to have to use his boxing to set up takedowns and try to work Aldo over from top position.

Jose “Scarface” Aldo has clearly established himself as the world’s premier Featherweight. A devastating striker, Aldo can crush opponents with his hands, knees, or feet. What makes him so scary, though, is how hard it is to take him down and control him. Aldo forces opponents to fight him on his terms and then tears them apart with precision striking and ruthless aggression. Against Edgar, the most important thing for Aldo is to stay off his back. He is probably going to be giving up a bit of size to Edgar, and it would be unwise for him to get stuck underneath a wrestler of Edgar’s caliber. Aldo has the speed and striking to retain his belt, but it is imperative that he take Edgar’s strengths away if he wants a win here.

This is a tough fight to call for a variety of reasons. Both of these guys are accomplished strikers, and it remains to be seen whether Aldo’s aggression and accuracy can triumph over Edgar’s slick, technical boxing. Furthermore, it’s always hard to guess how a fighter will perform at a new weight class. Logic suggests that Edgar is a natural at 145 and should be even more dominant without a size disadvantage, but he is jumping right into the deep end of the Featherweight division. Ultimately, I think Edgar will be surprised by how tough it is to get Aldo down and, in the meantime, will find himself being outstruck handily. His size disadvantage is often discussed, but it was made up for by superior speed. At 145, he is no longer going to be the fastest guy in the Octagon, and he might find himself getting beaten to the punch. Both of these guys are tough, so I see this lasting through the championship rounds, but I think Aldo should be able to score enough points to retain his title via unanimous decision.

Prediction:  Jose Aldo by Unanimous Decision.

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