Tag: General MMA betting

UFC Welterweight Bout:  Jon Fitch vs. Erick Silva

Odds: ( +105 Fitch / -135 Silva )

Betting Pick:  Fitch

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In a featured Welterweight matchup, rising star Erick “Indio” Silva faces his toughest challenge yet in the form of perennial top contender Jon Fitch. Silva is a very well-rounded fighter with dangerous submissions and solid punching who has only suffered one legitimate loss as a professional. His other loss, a DQ against Carlo Prater, came in a fight he was clearly in control of. Fitch, while not the most exciting or well-liked fighter in the UFC Welterweight division, is nevertheless a master of imposing his will on opponents and grinding them down for decision victories. If Silva wants to keep progressing toward a future title shot, he is going to have to find a way to survive Fitch’s grinding style and survive a drawn-out, grueling fight.

Erick Silva, a Team Nogueira product, is a very versatile fighter who is dangerous both standing and on the ground. He isn’t the most devastating puncher in the division, but he does have some knockout power to go along with very good hand speed and technique on the feet. His submissions are very good from a variety of positions, and he showed against Charlie Brenneman that he has plenty of ability to get out of bad positions on the ground as well. Against Fitch, that might be his most important attribute. Silva clearly has a better submission game, but I find it highly unlikely he will be able to take Fitch down, which means that if this fight hits the mat Silva will be underneath Fitch, who is notoriously hard to shake off. Silva is going to have to try to use his footwork and speed to stick and move on the feet, not allowing Fitch to push him up against the cage, clinch, and wear him down steadily if he wants to win this fight.

Jon Fitch’s fighting style is not one that tends to excite fans, but there is no denying that it is effective. Despite a shocking 12-second knockout loss in his last fight, Fitch has been one of the Welterweight division’s most consistent performers over the last few years, using his clinch game and dirty boxing to neutralize opponents and grind out one-sided decision wins. One reason Fitch has been so successful is that instead of trying to counter his opponents, he sticks to his own game plan and never deviates from it. He will do the same against Silva, trying to clinch up on the feet, use the cage to keep Silva locked in place, and bruise him up on the inside while he controls position.

I don’t think this is a particularly good style matchup for Silva. He lacks the kind of one-punch power that allowed Johny Hendricks to score a huge upset win, and he doesn’t have dominant wrestling that would allow him to put Fitch in a disadvantageous position. I think this one will play out like most of Fitch’s fights, with Fitch taking few chances, controlling Silva against the cage, and scoring enough points for a unanimous decision win.

Prediction:  Jon Fitch by Unanimous Decision.

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UFC Light Heavyweight Bout:  Anderson Silva vs. Stephan Bonnar

Odds:  (-1100 Silva / +650 Bonnar )

Betting Pick: Silva in a Parlay

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In the main event of the evening, dominant UFC Middleweight champion Anderson “The Spider” Silva returns to the Light Heavyweight division, where he will square off against Ultimate Fighter Season 1 finalist “The American Psycho” Stephan Bonnar. Bonnar is a company man through and through, and stepping on late notice to fight such a dangerous opponent proves it, but he is quite likely biting off a lot more than he can chew in this one. Silva is arguably the most prolific and dominant striker in the history of Mixed Martial Arts, and since Bonnar also relies pretty much exclusively on his standup, he is going to wind up trying to beat the master at his own game. Forrest Griffin, who famously defeated Bonnar in the legendary Ultimate Fighter Season 1 finals, learned the hard way that trying to stand and trade shots with Silva is a foolish plan, so if Bonnar wants to avoid his friend’s fate he is going to need to pull off a miracle.

Stephan Bonnar is not one of the UFC’s most talented Light Heavyweights, but there is no denying that he is one of the toughest. Although he is riding a three-fight win streak, he has won only three of his last six and and five of his last ten fights. Bonnar is a tough, durable fighter, which he showed by being one of the few guys who managed to last three rounds against Light Heavyweight champion Jon “Bones” Jones, but he is not a very good finisher and lacks any one dominant offensive skill that allows him to control fights. Silva has shown time and again that if you can’t finish a fight against him, he will find a way to pull out a win, so that is going to cause big problems for Bonnar here. While Bonnar has a fair number of wins by submission, most of those came very early in his career against subpar opponents, and in the UFC he has largely relied on his solid boxing and durable chin to win fights. Standing in front of Anderson Silva with little to no chance of knocking him out and hoping your chin holds up for three rounds does not seem like a recipe for success, though.

Anderson “The Spider” Silva is, without a doubt, the most dominant champion in UFC history. He has cleaned out UFC’s Middleweight division in unprecedented fashion, and even holds a couple of impressive knockout wins in the Light Heavyweight division already. There is no question that Silva is the best striker in the history of the UFC. He not only possesses devastating power with both punches and kicks, he is one of the most creative and dynamic kickboxers the sport has ever seen. His clinch game probably still haunts Rich Franklin’s nightmares. Not only has Silva shown that he is capable of overwhelming opponents with unbelievable striking, he has proven that he is more than capable of handling adversity as well. Against Dan Henderson and in his first fight with Chael Sonnen, Silva found himself in very bad positions, and both times managed to hold on, survive, and pull off excellent submissions to win. The idea of a striker as prolific as Silva who also has submissions from every position and can work effectively off his back would be hard to believe had he not been doing it for years already.

Let’s call this fight what it is: a huge, glaring mismatch. Not to take anything away from Bonnar, who is a solid fighter with a good chin and a ton of heart, but he has absolutely nothing to offer Silva here. Bonnar is a boxer who lacks knockout power, and he is going to stand in front of a vastly superior kickboxer who hits twice as hard, at least. Not only that, it is entirely likely that Silva is the better grappler as well. Bonnar is outclassed here in every way. It’s commendable that he stepped up to take this fight and give the Brazilian fans an entertaining main event, but his chances of victory are so low as to be almost zero. Silva will have his way with Bonnar on the feet before taking a one-sided T/KO victory.

Prediction:  Anderson “The Spider” Silva by second round T/KO.

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