Tag: General MMA betting

UFC Heavyweight Bout: Antonio “Minotauro” Nogueira vs. Dave Herman

Odds:  (-335 Nogueira /+255 Herman )

Betting Pick:  Big Nog

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In the semi-main event, heavy-handed slugger Dave Herman will look to halt a two-fight skid as he squares off against former PRIDE Heavyweight champion and Interim UFC Heavyweight champion Antonio Rodrigo “Minotauro” Nogueira. Both of these guys are coming off disappointing losses, but they both have dangerous skill sets and this is a very interesting style matchup that should produce a very entertaining fight. Nogueira has made a career out of taking savage beatings and then finding a way to pull off a miracle finish, but it looks lately as if years of intense punishment have finally caught up with him. Herman is more than equipped to deliver one of those savage beatings with his powerful striking game, but he has never had his ground game tested the way Nogueira can, and is in fact not nearly as technical or quick-handed in the striking as Nogueira is. This is a very compelling showdown between power and technique, and it should be interesting to see which of the two prevails.

Dave Herman is a long-time veteran who had stints in ShoXC, EliteXC, and Bellator before making his way to the UFC. There is no question that what Herman does best is let his hands go with brute force behind every punch. Herman is a consummate knockout artist, but he relies primarily on the raw power behind his haymakers to get the job done. Technique-wise, he is not a particularly accomplished striker. Even more troubling for a guy whose bread and butter is standing and trading huge shots, Herman’s chin has gone beyond suspect and is now firmly in the “bad” camp. Nogueira is not known as a knockout artist, but he does have some power, and his ability to consistently beat Herman to the punch on the feet could present problems for the big man. It would be foolish in the extreme for Herman to attempt to take Nogueira down, where he would be utterly outclassed, so Herman’s gameplan in this fight amounts to swinging for the fences and hoping he connects with a knockout punch.

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira is a legend in the sport, but recently it appears as if his best days are definitely behind him. The durability that allowed him to pull off so many ridiculous come from behind victories seems to be a fading memory, but the one thing he still possesses is stellar technique, both standing and on the ground. Nogueira isn’t a huge power puncher like Herman, but he has very quick hands, great footwork, and accurate punching. On the ground, Nogueira is one of the most accomplished Heavyweight grapplers in the history of Mixed Martial Arts. This fight is going to come down to whether or not Nogueira can consistently get his punches off first, I think. He has more than enough hand speed and accuracy to outbox Herman, but if he lets Herman land big power punches, I’m not sure that his chin can hold up to the kind of punishment it used to.

This should be a competitive fight, but I think Nogueira has the slight edge. He has better footwork, better hand speed, and better technique, all of which should help keep him out of trouble in the standup. If this fight goes to the ground, I think Nogueira has a very clear advantage no matter who is on top. I expect Herman to land a few big punches, but Nogueira should be able to stick and move enough to control the pace, scoring enough points for a unanimous decision win.

Prediction:  Antonio Nogueira by Unanimous Decision.

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UFC Heavyweight Bout:  Travis Browne vs. Bigfoot Silva

Odds:  ( -235 Browne /+185 Silva )

Betting Pick:  Browne

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In the main event of the evening, undefeated Heavyweight slugger Travis “Hapa” Browne will face by far the toughest challenge of his young career in the form of one-time Strikeforce Heavyweight champion Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva. This is a great matchup on paper, because both of these guys are huge, heavy-handed punchers with excellent ground games to back up their striking. Silva is coming off an extremely one-sided loss to former UFC Heavyweight champion Cain Velasquez, but he has years of top-level experience and one of the most dangerous offensive skill sets in UFC’s Heavyweight division. If Browne wants to keep his undefeated record intact, he is going to have to find a way to weather the relentless, punishing offense Silva is known for and try to beat Silva at his own game.

Travis “Hapa” Browne is one of the most exciting Heavyweight prospects in the UFC. He has put together a very impressive undefeated record on the strength of his powerful striking and a very solid submission game, especially from top position. While this is his first fight against a top tier Heavyweight, he has handled his incremental steps up in competition very well. He showed against Cheick Kongo and Stefan Struve that he can handle fighting guys with dangerous striking of their own, and that is going to come in handy against the heavy-handed Silva. On the feet, I think the edge against Silva probably goes to Browne, so the most important thing for him is to make sure that if this fight does go to the ground, he is in top position. Silva is brutal with ground and pound from the top, and as good as Browne’s jiu-jitsu is, I don’t see him being able to work off his back effectively underneath “Bigfoot”.

Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva, the former Strikeforce Heavyweight champion, is an extremely dangerous fighter who can hurt opponents with strikes, submissions, and ground and pound. He is not the fastest guy in the world, either in terms of hand speed or on his feet, but he is extremely powerful and uses his size very well to neutralize his opponents. Although he is currently coming off two straight losses, he has more than enough offensive skills to threaten anyone he fights. Both of his last two losses, though, came by way of punches, so he is going to have to be wary of Browne’s power on the feet and try to work his way into top position, where I think his grappling is good enough to control position and punish Browne with hard ground and pound.

Stylistically, I think this matchup favors Browne. Browne has faster hands and more punching power, something Silva has trouble dealing with. “Bigfoot” does his best work when he can control opponents with superior physicality, but Browne is a huge guy who is not going to be bullied around. I think Silva is going to find taking Browne down very difficult, and will see his chin exploited in the striking game eventually. Browne by T/KO

Prediction:  Travis “Hapa” Browne by third round T/KO.

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UFC Heavyweight Bout: Stefan Struve vs. Stipe Miocic

Odds: (+160 Struve / -200 Miocic )

Betting Pick:  Struve

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In the main event of the evening, undefeated Heavyweight prospect Stipe Miocic takes a big step up in competition to face towering Dutch striker Stefan “Skyscraper” Struve. Both of these guys have extremely dangerous striking, but Struve is going to enjoy a huge advantage in terms of height, reach, and experience. If Miocic wants to extend his record to 10-0, he is going to have to find a way to get inside Struve’s long reach and land big punches on the inside while also avoiding takedowns, because Struve is a world-class submission fighter and Miocic has never been tested on the ground by someone of his caliber.

Stipe Miocic is one of UFC’s most exciting Heavyweight prospects. Undefeated as a professional, Miocic has steadily climbed the ranks on the strength of his outstanding striking and devastating punching power. All 9 of Miocic’s wins have come as a result of strikes, with 8 T/KOs and one submission due to leg kicks. Since arriving in the UFC, Miocic has steadily stepped up his level of competition, and scored a great win against Shane del Rosario in his last outing. There is no question, though, that Struve is the most dangerous fighter he has ever faced, both standing and on the ground. Struve’s reach and technique make him a difficult guy to stand and trade against, and he has arguably the best submissions in the Heavyweight division, so Miocic is going to have his hands full. The one thing going in Miocic’s favor here is that Struve’s chin can definitely be exploited, and Miocic has the power to do just that. If he can find a way inside Struve’s huge range and work punches and dirty boxing from in close, he will be in a great position to put Struve to sleep.

Stefan “Skyscraper” Struve is one of the UFC’s most dangerous dual-threat Heavyweights. He is a tall, rangy kickboxer who uses his height and reach exceptionally well, and he has amazing submissions from a much wider variety of positions than most Heavyweight grapplers. Offensively, Struve is one of the most dangerous Heavyweights in the UFC, but his striking defense does leave a bit to be desired. The opponents who have managed to defeat Struve have all been heavy-handed punchers with solid chins who managed to get through his long range and abuse his weak chin on the inside, and Miocic seems to fit that bill. If Struve wants to avoid yet another knockout loss, he is going to have to do everything he can to keep Miocic on the end of his punches or to find a way to take this fight to the ground, where he will enjoy a massive advantage in technique.

This is a tough fight to call. Miocic has never fought a striker or a grappler as dangerous as Struve, much less one guy who can do both things so effectively. That said, Miocic seems like the kind of fighter specifically designed to exploit Struve’s weaknesses. If Miocic can get inside Struve’s range, he has more than enough technique and power to blow Struve up, and I think his chin is solid enough to deal with Struve’s power, as well. The real question is whether or not Struve will be able to get this fight to the ground. Miocic is not known for his grappling prowess and has never faced anyone near Struve’s level in terms of submissions, so if Struve can take this fight down he should be more than capable of submitting Miocic. In the end, I think Miocic will weather Struve’s striking fairly well, land some big shots of his own, but find himself taken down and submitted eventually. Struve by submission.

Prediction:  Stefan Struve by second round rear naked choke.

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UFC Welterweight Bout: Dan Hardy vs. Amir Sadollah

Odds: (-210 Hardy /+170 Sadollah )

Betting Pick:  Hardy

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In the semi-main event, Ultimate Fighter winner Amir Sadollah will square off against heavy-handed English slugger Dan “The Outlaw” Hardy. Hardy, coming off the first win in his last five fights, is nevertheless one of the most dangerous and dynamic power punchers in UFC’s Welterweight division. Sadollah lacks on attribute as dominant as Hardy’s power punching, but he is a much steadier competitor with a better overall fight game. If Hardy wants to avoid his fifth loss in six fights, he is going to have to get back to what made him a contender to begin with, namely his superb boxing. If this fight plays out on the ground, Hardy is probably slick enough to survive, but there is little question that Sadollah should be able to control the pace and position well enough to hand Hardy a loss.

Amir Sadollah, who shocked nearly everyone by defeating heavy favorite C.B. Dolloway twice to win the Ultimate Fighter, came into the show without a single professional bout to his credit. Since then, he has carved out a decent niche for himself in UFC’s Welterweight division, winning 6 of his 9 fights, most of those by decision. Sadollah is interesting in that he doesn’t have any really dominant strengths, but he also doesn’t have any glaring holes in his game. Sadollah is a steady, workmanlike competitor who doesn’t give up anything major and takes what opportunities he can get. Against Hardy, he is obviously going to have to be wary of the power punches, but he has more than enough versatility to take Hardy off his game and outpoint him as long as he is careful.

Dan “The Outlaw” Hardy is one of the most dangerous and inconsistent strikers in the UFC. When he is on his game, his boxing and power punching are overwhelming to his opponents, but he is also prone to turning in uninspired and downright horrible performances. Against Sadollah he will be able to let his hands go freely, because Sadollah doesn’t have the firepower to match him and isn’t a dominant enough wrestler to really make him worry about overcommitting. If Hardy comes out committed to his striking game, I think this fight is his to lose.

I really don’t see Sadollah presenting many problems for Hardy. Although he is clearly a striker, Hardy showed against Georges St. Pierre that he is very adept at avoiding bad spots on the ground and finding a way to wiggle out back to his feet. Considering that Sadollah has no answer for Hardy’s power standing and that I don’t think Sadollah can consistently hold Hardy down, I expect Hardy to take this one by way of a fairly one-sided unanimous decision.

Prediction:  Dan “The Outlaw” Hardy by Unanimous Decision.

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