Tag: General MMA betting

UFC Light Heavyweight Title Bout:  Jon Jones vs. Vitor Belfort

Odds: (-800 Jones / +500 Belfort )

Betting Pick:  Jones

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In the main event of the evening, Light Heavyweight champion Jon “Bones” Jones will look to continue his run of utter dominance against tough Brazilian striker Vitor Belfort. Jones has proven himself one of the most dominant champions in the history of the sport already, and shows no signs of slowing down, but Belfort has the kind of technique and power than can turn the tide of a fight instantly. Since 2007, Belfort’s only loss came at the hands of Anderson Silva, the only man who might have a claim to being more dominant than Jones. Belfort has been fighting at 185 pounds for the last few years, but has a storied history at Light Heavyweight, and is hoping his return to 205 will bring back some of the old magic. Still, if Belfort wants to recapture the Light Heavyweight title he once held, he is going to need to turn in the best performance of a career full of legendary performances, because Jones has shown again and again that he is on a whole different level from the rest of the division.

Vitor “The Phenom” Belfort was a dominant figure in the Light Heavyweight division in UFC’s early years, and is one of the few fighters from that era still competing in the top levels of the sport today. His career has had some ups and downs, largely stemming from personal tragedy and a tumultuous private life, but one thing that has remained constant is his dangerous skill set. Belfort is one of the most prolific strikers in the world, with great technique and a surplus of knockout power in both hands. He does have some wrestling and jiu-jitsu as well, but he would be foolish in the extreme to even consider engaging Jones in a ground fight. His best chance, as always, is to connect with power punches and hurt Jones on the feet. There is no question that, if Belfort can find a way to get inside Jones’ ridiculous reach, he has the power to end this fight. The question is whether he can defend himself against Jones’ reach advantage, keep himself from getting physically controlled with takedowns, and still be aggressive enough in the striking exchanges to put Jones in a bad spot. Against a fighter as dominant as Jones, nothing less than perfection will get the job done, so Belfort is going to have his hands full in this one.

Jon “Bones” Jones has experienced easily the most meteoric rise in the history of the UFC. It’s difficult to believe that as recently as 2010, Jones was considering a young prospect honing his skills against the likes of Vladimir Matyushenko and Ryan Bader. Since then, he has gone on an unprecedented tear, defeating a ridiculous 4 former Light Heavyweight champions in the 13 month span between March 2011 and April 2012. Now, Jones has firmly cemented himself as the world’s best Light Heavyweight and arguably the greatest fighter in the world. While he has come under fire recently for a DUI arrest and his role in the cancellation of UFC 151, it is impossible to say a bad word about Jones’ in-ring prowess. His striking is top notch, and he uses his tremendous reach to great effect. In addition, he has dominant wrestling, brutal ground and pound, and excellent submissions. Jones is without a doubt the most complete fighter in the UFC, and has a stunning amount of athleticism to back up his technical prowess. What makes him so scary is that, unlike a fighter like Belfort, Jones doesn’t need to enter fights intent on making one thing go his way. He is so well-rounded and dangerous that, no matter how a fight plays out, he can finish opponents anywhere and at any time.

This should be an exciting fight, but as good as Belfort is, it is still a mismatch. Belfort has been competing at Middleweight for the last few years and is small for a Light Heavyweight, while Jones is an absolute monster who makes even big Light Heavyweights look small. Belfort is probably the better striker in terms of pure technique and maybe even power, but he doesn’t have the same complement of skills that Jones brings to the Octagon. Jones will have a height advantage, a reach advantage, a weight advantage, a strength advantage, and an advantage in terms of wrestling, grappling, and submissions. I just don’t think Belfort’s game is well-rounded enough to deal with the multi-pronged attack Jones is going to bring. While it’s entirely possible that Jones could win a standup fight straight up, his ability to ragdoll Belfort to the ground and either pound him out or submit him is what will make the difference here, I think. I see the two trading early before Jones takes this fight to the mat and puts it away, retaining his title by submission.

Prediction:  Jon “Bones” Jones by second round Sub.

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UFC Middleweight Bout: Brian Stann vs. Michael Bisping

Odds: ( -190 Bisping / +155 Stann )

Betting Pick:  Bisping

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In a featured Middleweight bout, Michael “The Count” Bisping and Brian “All-American” Stann will do battle, quite likely with a shot at Anderson Silva’s UFC Middleweight Title on the line. Silva has cleaned out most of the division with relative ease, and Bisping and Stann are two of the only top contenders left that he has yet to deal with, so it is very possible that the winner here will be positioning himself for the next shot at the belt. Both of these guys have very dangerous standup, although in completely different ways. Will Stann be able to triumph with his bruising power punching, or will Bisping’s superior speed and technique win the day?

Brian “All-American” Stann is a WEC veteran who has carved out a niche for himself at the top of UFC’s Middleweight division with a mixture of dangerous power punching and an underrated ground game. A winner of four of his last five fights, his only setback came at the hands of recent title challenger Chael Sonnen. Stann’s punching is definitely his best weapon, and he packs a lot of power in both hands, but he is also an underrated wrestler with decent submissions and a solid clinch game as well. Against Bisping he will easily be the better wrestler and the more powerful striker, but he will be at a distinct disadvantage in terms of hand speed and striking technique, so his best bet is to try to make this a physical brawl where he can bruise Bisping on the inside and in the clinch instead of settling for a boxing match.

Michael “The Count” Bisping has also won four of his last five fights, and like Stann, his only loss came at the hands of Chael Sonnen. Bisping is a sneaky fighter who is often derided for his relative lack of punching power, but he is one of the best in the division at finding openings and pouring punishment on. What he lacks in one-punch knockout power, he makes up for in volume punching and sound technique. He is going to have to be careful against Stann, who hits substantially harder than he does, just because it’s been shown that his chin can be exploited, but he will enjoy a distinct advantage in terms of pure striking technique. Bisping’s wrestling has long been the biggest hole in his arsenal, but it has steadily improved and is now a decent complement to his much underrated jiu-jitsu. If Bisping can move well on the outside, he has a great chance of consistently beating Stann to the punch and overwhelming him with his superior speed and precision.

In the end, this is going to be a fight of quality versus quantity. There is no question that Stann can throw the bigger, harder shots, but Bisping is more than capable of sneaking 3 or 4 punches through any opening Stann leaves him. If Stann can make this a bruising, physical affair, it favors him, but I think he is going to have a hard time wading through Bisping’s pinpoint accurate striking in order to execute that game plan. In a three round fight, Stann is going to have to be very aggressive, because he won’t have as much time to set up that big fight-ending haymaker. I think the edge here goes to Bisping, who should land substantially more shots and might surprise a few people by sneaking a few takedowns in that Stann won’t expect. This one will be close, but I see Bisping taking a very narrow decision win.

Prediction:  Michael “The Count” Bisping by Split Decision.

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