Tag: General MMA betting

UFC Light Heavyweight Bout:  Mauricio Rua vs. Brandon Vera

Odds:  (-400 Rua / +300 Vera )

Betting Pick:  Rua

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In the main event of the evening, former Light Heavyweight champion Mauricio “Shogun” Rua will square off against well-rounded veteran Brandon “The Truth” Vera. Both of these guys have some huge wins under their belts, but neither has been overly impressive in recent outings, with Shogun dropping three of his last five fights and Vera losing two of his last three. Still, these are two guys with dangerous striking and versatile offensive skill sets who have proven that they can compete with the best in the world at Light Heavyweight and who have complementary styles that should make this a very competitive and entertaining main event.

Brandon “The Truth” Vera looked, for a while, like he might just be the future of the UFC. In his first four fights in the Octagon, all at Heavyweight, he went undefeated and capped the run with a brutal TKO over former Heavyweight champion Frank Mir. Two straight losses at Heavyweight,though, sent him down to 205, and unfortunately he has been unable to recapture the magic of that first run. Vera has very good Muay Thai and an underrated ground game, but his career has been marred by inconsistent and uninspired performances. Against Shogun he is almost certainly going to be at a disadvantage in terms of punching power and probably striking technique as well, but Shogun has shown that he can be taken down and controlled. If Vera wants to avoid another costly loss, he might want to look to use his long reach to keep Shogun at bay and try to set up some takedowns to score points and neutralize Rua’s offense a bit.

Mauricio “Shogun” Rua, the former Light Heavyweight champion, is without a doubt one of the most effective strikers in the 205 pound division. A Muay Thai expert with great punches and kicks to go along with a dominant clinch game, Shogun is capable of putting a hurt on anyone willing to stand and let him work his game plan. He actually has very underrated jiu jitsu as well, but against a grappler like Vera I don’t see him being able to work effectively off his back. Shogun’s strategy should be what it always is: keep the fight standing and out strike his opponent. I don’t see any area of a kickboxing fight where Vera really has an edge over Shogun outside of reach. Shogun is the crisper, more accurate, and more powerful striker of the two, and should have more than enough tools in his belt to win this fight on his feet.

Truth be told, this seems like a bit of a mismatch. This fight is only happening because Shogun turned down a fight with Glover Teixeira, whose combination of relatively small name recognition and relatively huge punching ability made him an unattractive prospect. Vera has name recognition because of his big wins over the likes of Frank Mir, but he is not the same fighter who looked like such a phenom early in his career. Vera will try to strike with Shogun, and he will get out struck badly. I don’t like his chances of lasting a full three rounds against the kind of power Shogun brings to the table. Shogun by T/KO.

Prediction:  Mauricio “Shogun” Rua by third round T/KO.

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UFC Light Heavyweight Bout:  Lyoto Machida vs. Ryan Bader

Odds:  (-335 Machida / +255 Bader )

Betting Pick:  Machida

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In the semi-main event, former Light Heavyweight champion Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida will square off against heavy-handed wrestler Ryan “Darth”Bader in a very interesting style clash. Machida has dropped three of his last four fights, with the sole in that stretch being his legendary front kick KO of former Light Heavyweight Champion and Hall of Famer Randy Couture. Still, his counter punching style, pinpoint accuracy, and masterful footwork make him a difficult opponent to deal with. Bader, 2-2 in his last four fights, has seen his momentum derailed a bit recently but is coming off two very impressive wins. This is going to come down to whether or not Bader has enough wrestling to put Machida on his back and hold him there, because although he is a powerful puncher, I don’t like his chances of successfully chasing Machida around the Octagon without getting pasted by counter punches and tired out.

Ryan “Darth” Bader looked like one of the Light Heavyweight Division’s most promising up and comers, but was eclipsed by current champion Jon “Bones” Jones and suffered a huge setback against Tito Ortiz immediately after. He has rebounded nicely with two good wins in a row, but against Machida he is going to have to fight very carefully. One of Bader’s best tools is his ability to complement his wrestling with big power punches, but if he gets wild against Machida or settles into a stand up fight too comfortably, he is going to pay the price. Machida is notorious for letting guys chase him, wear themselves out, and softening them up with lightning-fast counter punches before pouncing for the win, and Bader is going to have to pick his spots carefully to avoid falling into that trap. Machida is definitely able to betaken down, and if anyone can do it is Bader, but he is going to have to work hard to avoid letting Machida back up and especially to prevent leaving his neck open for a guillotine, which he has succumbed to twice in his last four fights.

Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida is, as you may have heard Joe Rogan mention a time or two, an extremely elusive and dangerous striker with a unique counter punching style. His Footwork is beautiful, and he is better than anyone in the sport at landing meaningful strikes while moving fully backward. Machida’s biggest problem is that he is too comfortable fighting a defensive fight, and if his opponents won’t commit to chasing him around, his fights tend to devolve into cat and mouse games without much significant action. Against Bader there is no question that Machida will be the more accomplished striker, so he just has to fight carefully to avoid getting taken down and controlled. If this fight plays out on the feet, Machida’sspeed advantage and superior accuracy will be more than enough to keep Bader under control.

This is a somewhat tough fight to call. Bader has knockout power but is unlikely to catch Machida on the feet, and Machida has knockout power but prefers to backpedal and fight for points usually. On the one hand, allowing Bader to hang around could be courting disaster, but on the other Machida’s hard-to-catch style could well tire Bader out and neutralize his wrestling. If Bader can secure take downs early and set the tone, he will be in a great position to win here, but I think that Machida is ultimately too slippery, and will outpoint Bader handily on the feet for a unanimous decision victory.

Prediction:  Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida by Unanimous Decision.

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UFC Interim Bantamweight Title Bout:  Urijah Faber vs. Renan Barao

Odds:  (+155 Faber / -190 Barao )

Betting Pick:  Barao

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In the main event of the evening, former WEC Featherweight champion Urijah “The California Kid” Faber will square off against prolific jiu-jitsu ace Renan “Barao” Pegado in a Bantamweight matchup. Faber has fought the best in the world in two weight classes for years now, but Barao is a phenomenal grappler currently riding an insane 28 fight win streak, which makes this a very compelling bout with almost guaranteed title shot implications. With Faber having already suffered a loss to Bantamweight champion Dominick Cruz, a win here is absolutely necessary if he wants to remain relevant in the title picture, while a 29th straight win for Barao will almost certainly guarantee him a shot at the belt.

Urijah Faber was one of the WEC’s biggest stars and one of the top Featherweights in the world for years, but after two losses to Mike Thomas Brown and a defeat at the hands of reigning Featherweight king Jose Aldo, he made the drop to a more natural 135 pounds. He gave Cruz a good fight in his losing effort, and in his last fight rebounded nicely with a submission win over former Bantamweight champion Brian Bowles. One thing that makes Faber so dangerous is his offensive versatility. He is a solid wrestler with good, powerful striking and very dangerous submissions. Against Barao, though, I think he would be very unwise to try and initiate a ground fight, because as good as Faber’s submissions are, Barao’s are substantially better. Instead, Faber should concentrate on using his wrestling defensively and trying to force a standup war, where I think he has the edge in power, accuracy, and hand speed. He just has to be careful not to get too reckless and let Barao capitalize for easy takedowns, because he is going to be in some trouble if he has to work off his back underneath the superior grappler.

Renan “Barao” Pegado is one of the most exciting and prolific grapplers in the UFC at any weight, and he is riding a nearly-unprecedented 28 fight winning streak. Since debuting in the WEC, he has steadily moved up in competition and has easily handled all of his opponents so far. There is no question, though, that Faber is in every way the toughest fighter he has ever had to face. Not only has Pegado never faced anyone who can press the issue on the feet like Faber can, he has never faced anyone as well-prepared to test his strengths on the ground. In order to dictate his kind of fight, Barao  is going to have to find a way to crack Faber’s wrestling while also avoiding getting caught by big strikes, which is much easier said than done.

This is a very tough fight to call. Barao is, without a doubt, the best pure grappler in the Bantamweight division, but Faber is easily the more versatile fighter of the two. If Barao can secure takedowns, I really don’t like Faber’s chances of winning this fight having to fight off his back. If Faber can use his wrestling advantage defensively, though, I think he has all the tools to outstrike Barao with relative ease. In the end, I think the slight edge has to go to Pegado. Faber is a good standup fighter, but his biggest strength is the way that he mixes his offense up and throws punches to set up takedowns. I think eventually Faber will either get too reckless on the feet and get taken down, or that he will shoot for a takedown himself and wind up getting swept. Either way, I see Faber making a mistake in the later rounds and Barao capitalizing on it. Pegado by submission.

Prediction: Renan Barao by fourth round Sub.

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