Tag: General MMA betting

UFC Catchweight (190 lbs) Bout:  Rich Franklin vs. Wanderlei Silva

Odds:  (-170 Franklin /+140 Silva )

Betting Pick:  Franklin

Bet on this fight at Bovada.Iv

In the main event of the evening, PRIDE legend Wanderlei “The Axe Murderer” Silva will do battle against former Middleweight champion Rich “Ace” Franklin.  The last time these two met, at UFC 99 in 2009, Franklin outpointed Silva for a unanimous decision with relative ease. Silva is clearly on the tail end of his career, and Franklin has seemed adrift since getting destroyed twice by Anderson Silva, but these two have complementary styles that basically guarantee an exciting fight.  Regardless of their current places in the division, or their futures in the sport, these are two guys tailor made to fight each other.

Wanderlei “The Axe Murderer” Silva is one of the most feared and accomplished strikers in the history of the sport.  His PRIDE exploits are the stuff of legend, as he dispatched opponents with a mix of aggression and technique that will likely never be matched.  Silva has aged considerably since then, and is a ghost of the fighter he used to be, but he still has the aggressive nature and do or die tendencies that made him so exciting in his heyday.  You can’t expect the same level of effectiveness that he displayed in his prime, but you can count on him to keep pushing forward and doing everything in his power to hurt his opponents.  In his last fight, a win against Cung Le, he showed that he still has a bit of the vintage Silva left in his tank by brutalizing Le with knees and punches.  There is never a question about Silva’s game plan at this point in his career.  He will treat Franklin like he treats all of his opponents, by trying to walk him down, catch him in the clinch, and punish him until he can’t continue.  It remains to be seen whether he can execute that gameplan more effectively than he did in their last fight.

Rich “Ace” Franklin, the former Middleweight champion who is stepping in as a late replacement for the injured Vitor Belfort, has fought only twice in the last two years.  Once a mainstay of the Middleweight division, successive destructions at the hands (and knees) of Anderson Silva sent Franklin back and forth between Middleweight and Light Heavyweight, where he has been unable to find any sustained success. Now, he is clearly nearing the ending of his career, but he still has the tools that made him successful, namely accurate boxing, good hand speed, and underrated wrestling.  Against Silva, his counterpunching style has already proven very effective, and there is no reason to expect that will have changed.  Silva likes to stalk forward constantly, and Franklin is more comfortable than most strikers stepping backward and flinging counterpunches as he evades.  If he can force Silva to chase him down and make him eat punches while he does it, it won’t take long for him to wear Silva down so that he can take control of this fight.

What this fight comes down to, in the end, is whether Silva can close the distance on Franklin early enough to start doing significant damage.  Franklin’s chin has always been his weak point, and even in his declining years, Silva has the power and especially the clinch game to exploit that weakness.  Silva isn’t the fighter he used to be, though, and if he has to expend energy trying to close the gap with Franklin while getting peppered with jabs and counter punches, he is going to lose steam relatively fast.  In the end, I just don’t think Franklin is a good style matchup for Silva.  At this point, Silva needs an opponent willing to stand in front of him and trade shots, and Franklin is too smart and too experienced to do that.  I think Franklin will frustrate Silva early with superior movement and counterpunching, then take over once he has worn Silva down.  Franklin by unanimous decision.

Prediction:  Rich Franklin by Unanimous Decision.

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UFC Lightweight Bout:  Gray Maynard vs. Clay Guida

Odds:  (-315 Maynard /+245 Guida )

Betting Pick:  Maynard

Bet on this fight at Bovada.Iv

In the main event of the evening, Gray “The Bully” Maynard, coming off the first loss of his professional career, will look to get back in the win column against aggressive wrestling dynamo Clay “The Carpenter” Guida.  Guida, known for his signature mane of curly hair and the breakneck pace of his fights, is one of the most aggressive and effective wrestlers in the Lightweight division, but Maynard is a world-class wrestler in his own right with punishing striking to go along with it.  Guida, as good as he is, is going to have his hands full trying to force Maynard onto his back while avoiding his thudding power punches.  If Guida wants to pull off an upset, he is going to have to show some huge strides in his boxing defense.

Clay “The Carpenter” Guida is one of the UFC’s most exciting and aggressive fighters.  A long time veteran, Guida has carved out a niche for himself with great wrestling and top control, unstoppable cardio, and arguably the most aggressive fighting style in the sport. Guida is a great wrestler with a punishing top control game, and will keep shooting for takedowns nonstop until he succeeds.  His boxing is very rudimentary and not overly powerful, but he does tend to pile on a very high volume of punches to compensate.  Against Maynard, he is going to have to pick his shots much more carefully, because if he wades forward letting his hands go recklessly he is either going to get dumped on his back and pounded, or he is going to eat a huge haymaker and go to sleep.

Gray “The Bully” Maynard is clearly one of the UFC’s top Lightweights.  He appears to have met his match in Frankie “The Answer” Edgar, but his potent mix of power punching and dominant wrestling make him one of the most effective and dangerous Lightweights in the world.  As good as Maynard’s wrestling is, he has shown a distinct preference for keeping fights standing and letting his hands go, and in that regard Guida is the perfect opponent for him.  Guida’s whole game plan is always to go for takedowns first and foremost, and his boxing is pretty ineffective, which means that Maynard can use his wrestling defensively to keep the fight standing and exploit his drastic striking advantage.

This is going to be a rough fight for Guida.  Over the course of his career, one thing has remained true.  Anyone he can outwrestle, he beats, and anyone he can’t outwrestle, he loses to.  In that sense, Maynard is a nightmare opponent, because Guida just can’t outwrestle him and Maynard is way more dangerous on the feet.  I think Guida will try to take Maynard down, fail repeatedly, and eventually get put down with punches.  Maynard by T/KO.

Prediction:  Gray Maynard by second round T/KO.

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UFC Welterweight bout:  Mike Pyle vs. Josh Neer

Odds:  (-190 Pyle /+155 Neer )

Betting Pick:  Pyle

Bet on this fight at Bovada.IV

In a featured Welterweight bout, two skilled and dangerous veterans will go at it as Josh “The Dentist” Neer squares off against Mike“Quicksand” Pyle.  These guys are both experienced veterans with a lotof tools in their belts.  Pyle fought all over the world before makinghis way to the UFC in 2009, and has put together an impressive 5-3record against quality opponents since then.  Neer, for his part,washed out of the UFC once, but has returned in full force and iscurrently riding a very impressive six fight winning streak.  Both of these guys have been around the block and both of them have the ability to finish fights standing and on the ground, so this could be a very entertaining and competitive fight despite the fact thatneither man is really in the Welterweight title picture.

Josh “The Dentist” Neer is one of the toughest and most versatileWelterweights on the UFC roster.  After dropping three of four UFCbouts in 2008 and 2009, Neer has won eight of his last nine, with thesole loss coming at the hands of highly-regarded Bellator veteranEddie Alvarez.  One thing that sets Neer apart is that he is one ofthe sport’s most prolific finishers, having scored the T/KO or submission in aremarkable 88% of his 33 professional wins.  He is not the most technicalfighter in the UFC, either standing or on the ground, but he fights very aggressively, has fight-ending power, and is not afraid to eat a large amount of punishment in order to set up his own offense.  Another thing that sets Neer apart is the strength of his chin, which seems sometimes to be made out of granite.  What’s so interesting about this fight is that both Pyle and Neer are versatile and experienced enough to fight wherever they need to and to counter any attempts at imposing a game plan, so this is going to be a fight that develops organically and could end with a finish anywhere and at any time.

Mike “Quicksand” Pyle is another tough and versatile veteran with years of experience fighting top-notch opposition.  Also, like Neer, Pyle is a prolific finisher, having finished 87% of his 22 professional wins, the vast majority of those coming by way of submission.  Although his submission stats are gaudy, they are also misleading in that they make it look like he is not a powerful or dangerous striker, and nothing could be further from the truth.  Pyle has very good boxing and can hurt opponents with knees and kicks as well.  The one disadvantage he will bring into the Octagon against Neer is that his chin, while hardly made of glass, is much easier to crack than Neer’s is.  Still, it is entirely possible that he can strike with Neer and win exchanges, so it’s not like he is locked into a game plan of trying to force takedowns and work a top control game. Just like his opponent, Pyle has the tools and the experience to fight competitively anywhere he needs to.

This has all the makings of a rough and tumble, very competitive matchup.  Both guys are hard to impose your will on, both guys can finish fights standing and on the ground, and both guys are tough and difficult to finish.  That said, this will probably come down to who makes a big mistake first.  These are two of the best Welterweights on Earth when it comes to fighting aggressively and finishing opponents, so a slip up from either one of them could well prove disastrous.  I think the slight edge has to go to Pyle, though, because I think his wrestling is a little better and he is a little bit more dangerous in the submission game.  There’s no question that this fight could go either way, and neither guy winning could ever be considered an upset because they are so similar and evenly matched, but I think Pyle will find an opening to get this fight to the ground, start applying pressure, and eventually lock up a submission in the later rounds.

Prediction:  Mike Pyle by third round rear naked choke.

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Current UFC 148 Betting Odds – On Saturday, July 7, 2012, UFC 148 will air live from their home base in the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.  In the headlining bout, Middleweight champion Anderson “Spider” Silva will look to defend his title for the second time against Chael Sonnen, who came half of a round from unseating the champion in their first matchup. This is a highly anticipated rematch, both because of the personal animosity between these two and the fact that Sonnen has already showed that his unstoppable wrestling and top control game are a solid counter to Silva’s world-class striking.  Silva’s only weakness is his takedown defense, and Sonnen is perfectly positioned to exploit that flaw.  Sonnen is going to have to be more careful on top to avoid getting caught in another submission, which has long been his Achilles’ heel, but Silva is going to need a drastically different game plan this time, because spending 4 plus rounds on your back getting pummeled is not a winning strategy.

Main Card:

Anderson Silva vs. Chael Sonnen

Bovada.Iv Odds

• Silva         (-260)
• Sonnen   (+200)

Betonline.com Odds

• Silva        (-250)
• Sonnen   (+210)

Urijah Faber vs. Renan Barao

Bovada.Iv Odds

• Faber   (+140)
• Barao   (-170)

Betonline.com Odds

• Faber  
• Barao  

Forrest Griffin vs. Tito Ortiz

Bovada.Iv Odds

• Griffin   (-300)
• Ortiz      (+230)

Betonline.com Odds

• Griffin   (-300)
• Ortiz      (+250)

Cung Le vs. Patrick Cote

Bovada.Iv Odds

• Le      
• Cote  

Betonline.com Odds

• Le      
• Cote  

Dong Hyun Kim vs. Demian Maia

Bovada.Iv Odds

• Hyun Kim  (-150)
• Maia            (+120)

Betonline.com Odds

• Hyun  (-150)
• Kim     (+130)

Preliminary Card:

Ivan Menjivar vs. Mike Easton

Bovada.Iv Odds

• Menjivar
• Easton

Chad Mendes vs. Cody McKenzie

Bovada.Iv Odds

• Mendes
• McKenzie

Gleison Tibau vs. Khabib Nurmagomedov

Bovada.Iv Odds

• Tibau
• Nurmagomedov

Melvin Guillard vs. Fabricio Camoes

Bovada.Iv Odds

• Guillard
• Camoes

Constantinos Philippou vs. Riki Fukuda

Bovada.Iv Odds

• Philippou
• Fukuda

John Alessio vs. Shane Roller

Bovada.Iv Odds

• Alessio
• Roller

In the semi-main event, jiu-jitsu ace Renan “Barao” Pegado steps up on late notice to replace injured Bantamweight champion Dominick Cruz against former WEC Featherweight king Urijah “The California Kid” Faber.  Pegado is riding an insane 27 fight winning streak, having not lost since his first professional bout in 2005, but the versatile Faber is a huge step up in competition for him, so this is actually a very compelling last-minute addition.  In another featured bout, former Light Heavyweight champions Forrest Griffin and “The Huntington Beach Bad Boy” Tito Ortiz will meet in a rematch of their controversial 2009 fight, which Griffin won by split decision. Rounding out the card are a Middleweight bout pitting tough veteran Patrick Cote against Strikeforce legend Cung Le and a Welterweight bout between submission wiz Demian Maia and judo standout Dong Hyun “Stun Gun” Kim.

Make sure to Check back with us closer to fight night as I will have updated UFC 148 Odds plus Fight Predictions.  And to add a little excitement to your fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds.

Current UFC 147 Betting Odds – On Saturday, June 23, 2012, UFC will return to its Brazilian roots as UFC 147 airs live from Jornalista Felipe Drumond Stadium in Belo Horizonte, Brazil.  In the main event, Brazilian superstar and PRIDE legend Wanderlei “The Axe Murderer” Silva will look to recapture some of the magic of his prime as he squares off against former UFC Middleweight champion Rich “Ace” Franklin.  Both of these guys are former champions with great striking, but both are past the primes of their careers.  Silva showed in his last fight against Cung Le that he still has some of that old brutality left in him, but it remains to be seen whether he has enough left in his tank to deal with Franklin’s sound technique and underrated wrestling game.

Main Card:

Wanderlei Silva vs. Rich Franklin

Bovada.Iv Odds

• Silva           (-170)
• Franklin    (+140)

Betonline.com Odds

• Silva         (-170)
  
• Franklin (+150)
  

Fabricio Werdum vs. Mike Russow

Bovada.Iv Odds

• Werdum   (-500)
• Russow    (+350)

Betonline.com Odds

• Werdum   (-500)
• Russow     (+350)

Yuri Alcantara vs. Hacran Dias

Bovada.Iv Odds

• Alcantara  (-275)
  
• Dias              (+215)
  

Betonline.com Odds

• Alcantara
• Dias

Preliminary Card:

Milton Vieira vs. Felipe Arantes

Bovada.Iv Odds

• Vieira
• Arantes

In the semi-main event, another popular Brazilian will be featured as Heavyweight submission ace Fabricio “Vai Cavalo” Werdum will look to halt the momentum of surging journeyman Mike Russow.  These guys are two of the Heavyweight division’s most proven submission finishers, and the matchup of Werdum’s flawless technique and Russow’s stifling, bruising top control style should make for an interesting fight.  Also featured will be a Featherweight bout pitting Iuri “Marajo” Alcantara against Hacran “Barnabe” Dias and a Lightweight showdown between Milton “Miltinho” Vieira and Felipe “Sertanejo” Arantes.

Make sure to Check back with us closer to fight night as I will have updated UFC 147 Odds plus Fight Predictions.  And to add a little excitement to your fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bovada.Iv Odds.

UFC Flyweight bout:  Demetrious Johnson vs. Ian McCall

Odds:  (-155 Johnson /+125 McCall )

Betting Pick:  Johnson

Bet on this fight at Bovada.Iv

In the main event of the evening, Flyweights Ian “Uncle Creepy” McCall and Demetrious “Mighty Mouse” Johnson will meet in an immediate rematch of their Flyweight title tournament match, which ended in controversy.  The bout, which was very competitive and could have gone either way, was ruled a majority draw, but Johnson was erroneously announced as the winner in the post-fight decision.  Now, the two will meet again, hopefully to provide a more clear result and clarify the burgeoning Flyweight title picture.  Their first bout was entertaining and hotly contested, and the rematch promises to deliver another great main event.

Ian “Uncle Creepy” McCall, despite his rather unfortunate nickname, is clearly one of the world’s most dangerous Flyweights.  While he has only had one UFC fight, until recently, most of the top 125 pound action was occurring outside of the Octagon, and McCall has fought some of the top Flyweights and Bantamweights in the world, including a decision loss to current Bantamweight champion Dominick Cruz and an impressive win over former World #1 Flyweight Jussier da Silva. McCall is very versatile, with fast and technical striking and very effective submissions.  Like most Flyweights, he is very quick on his feet and has amazing cardio conditioning that allows him to keep up a breakneck pace from bell to bell.  In their first fight, McCall did a great job of preventing Johnson’s takedowns and securing takedowns of his own, but what kept him from securing the victory was his inability to maintain position on the ground.  He clearly has the tools to be a winner here, but if he wants to avoid another too-close-for-comfort decision, he is going to have to find a way to capitalize on his takedowns and not let Johnson sweep or escape every time.  He took some pretty big shots from Johnson last time, and so he is going to have to be wary of the standup, but if he can find a way to keep Johnson on his back after securing the takedown he will be in a great position to win this fight and challenge for the Flyweight title.

Demetrious “Mighty Mouse” Johnson had already cemented himself as one of the better Bantamweights in the world, despite his noticeable size disadvantage, when UFC decided to open up a Flyweight division.  125 pounds is a much more natural weight for Johnson, where he won’t have to rely on superior speed and technique to consistently deal with larger and stronger opponents.  Johnson is extremely versatile, with good striking, good wrestling, and very effective submissions, sweeps, and escapes.  Against McCall in their first fight, he landed a number of big shots that hurt McCall and did an excellent job of getting out of bad positions on the ground, but he had a lot of trouble keeping McCall from taking him down in the first place.  It’s clear that he has the tools to stand and trade with McCall, and that he is good enough on the ground to get out of any real trouble, but if this fight is going to be as competitive as their last one, he simply cannot afford to give McCall those free points on the judges’ scorecards that he did last time.  His number one priority has to be takedown defense, because even if he isn’t in any danger of being finished, every single time his back touches the canvas he is letting McCall keep it close on the scorecards.

Their first fight was extremely close, and I don’t see any reason to expect that this one will be any different.  These guys haven’t changed that much as fighters in three months, so this one is going to come down to which of them learned their lesson from the last fight the best.  Johnson had more significant offense, including a big punch in round 1 that rocked McCall, but he let McCall creep back into the fight with a steady stream of trips and takedowns.  In a few cases, Johnson baited his own trap by trying, and failing, to take McCall down and leaving himself open to getting clinched and tripped in the process.  He needs to learn from that, press his advantage on the feet, and try to do a better job of keeping this fight off the ground altogether.  In the end, though, I thought Johnson did enough to win the first fight, albeit barely, and I think he will replicate that performance.  Johnson takes the close decision nod in another very competitive fight.

Prediction:  Demetrious Johnson by Decision.

 To add  a little excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bovada.Iv Odds. Check out my review of Bodog here…

Below you can use our Odds Calculator to check your potential winnings.