Tag: General MMA betting

UFC Welterweight bout:  Josh Koscheck vs. Johny Hendricks

Odds:  (+100 Koscheck / -130 Hendricks )

Betting Pick:  Koscheck

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In the semi-main event, long-time top contender Josh “Kos” Koscheck will look to halt the momentum of surging young star Johny Hendricks. According to UFC president Dana White, a win for Hendricks means a shot at the UFC Welterweight Title, but getting through a fighter like Koscheck is a long way from a foregone conclusion.  Hendricks proved against Koscheck’s teammate Jon Fitch that he has the kind of punching power to floor anyone in the division, but Koscheck is one of the most effective wrestlers in the sport and has formidable punching power of his own, so this is going to be a really tough test for Hendricks.  It seems unlikely that he will catch Koscheck as early in the fight as he caught Fitch, so he will have to prove that he can handle an aggressive wrestler for an extended period of time, something that remains in question following his sole career loss to Rick “Horror” Story.

Josh Koscheck, after appearing in the finals of the inaugural season of The Ultimate Fighter, has carved out a niche for himself as one of UFC’s most dangerous Welterweights.  Although he has fallen short in his two shots at Georges St. Pierre’s title, he has firmly entrenched himself at the top of the division, and any road to the title is probably going to have to go through him.  From the get go, Koscheck was a dominant wrestler with a smothering top game, but he has steadily grown as a kickboxer over the course of his UFC career and is now regarded as a dangerous striker as well.  He has good punches and kicks and a very solid chin, but he is still most effective when he works for double legs, gets on top of his opponents, and wears them down while totally nullifying their offense.  Against Hendricks, who has dynamite in his hands, Koscheck would be well served to stick to his bread and butter instead of trying to show off his striking too much.  It’s not that Koscheck isn’t capable of standing with Hendricks, because he very well might be, but his wrestling is an a whole different level and he would be foolish not to press such a sizable advantage.

Johny Hendricks is one of the Welterweight division’s fastest-rising stars, but in many ways Koscheck represents a sizable step up in competition for him.  Hendricks looked phenomenal in dropping Jon Fitch in a mere 12 seconds, but you can’t count on him winning many fights against top competitors that fast, and Koscheck is going to be able to test his readiness to compete at the highest level in a variety of ways.  The only loss of Hendricks’ career came at the hands of Rick Story, who was able to use his wrestling to keep Hendricks from teeing off with his powerful punching.  When it comes to pure wrestling, anything Story can do, Koscheck can do better, so Hendricks is going to have to show a very complete game if he wants to avoid getting planted on his back repeatedly and having his best weapons taken away from him.  Even on the feet, Koscheck has more than enough power to end a fight, so while Hendricks has a distinct advantage in that area he is still going to have to fight smart and not go into headhunter mode if he wants to avoid getting caught himself.

This is going to be a great test of just how ready Hendricks is for main event level fights.  There is no question that Hendricks has enough power in his hands to finish anyone foolish enough to let him start landing power punches, but Koscheck has a solid chin and world class wrestling which are going to give Hendricks a lot of problems. It would be wrong to call his win over Fitch a fluke, because he has proven time and again that he has fight ending punching power and great boxing technique, but the speed with which he floored Fitch is not something he can count on happening often.  It seems to be a given that Koscheck is going to give Hendricks the toughest test of his relatively young career, and I’m just not sure that he is going to be able to handle the pressure, both literally and figuratively. Hendricks has never had to fight with this much at stake before, and he has never faced an opponent besides Fitch with the toolset to completely neutralize him if things start to go poorly.  I think Hendricks is going to wilt under the pressure of Koscheck’s constant, effective takedowns, and find it difficult to really work his game much.  I don’t see Koscheck finishing this on the ground, but he should be able to take Hendricks down, neutralize his offense, and control pace and position well enough to earn the unanimous decision win.

Prediction:  Josh Koscheck by Unanimous Decision.

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UFC Welterweight bout:  Josh Koscheck vs. Johny Hendricks

Odds:  (+100 Koscheck / -130 Hendricks )

Betting Pick:  Koscheck

Bet on this fight at Bovada.Iv

In the semi-main event, long-time top contender Josh “Kos” Koscheck will look to halt the momentum of surging young star Johny Hendricks. According to UFC president Dana White, a win for Hendricks means a shot at the UFC Welterweight Title, but getting through a fighter like Koscheck is a long way from a foregone conclusion.  Hendricks proved against Koscheck’s teammate Jon Fitch that he has the kind of punching power to floor anyone in the division, but Koscheck is one of the most effective wrestlers in the sport and has formidable punching power of his own, so this is going to be a really tough test for Hendricks.  It seems unlikely that he will catch Koscheck as early in the fight as he caught Fitch, so he will have to prove that he can handle an aggressive wrestler for an extended period of time, something that remains in question following his sole career loss to Rick “Horror” Story.

Josh Koscheck, after appearing in the finals of the inaugural season of The Ultimate Fighter, has carved out a niche for himself as one of UFC’s most dangerous Welterweights.  Although he has fallen short in his two shots at Georges St. Pierre’s title, he has firmly entrenched himself at the top of the division, and any road to the title is probably going to have to go through him.  From the get go, Koscheck was a dominant wrestler with a smothering top game, but he has steadily grown as a kickboxer over the course of his UFC career and is now regarded as a dangerous striker as well.  He has good punches and kicks and a very solid chin, but he is still most effective when he works for double legs, gets on top of his opponents, and wears them down while totally nullifying their offense.  Against Hendricks, who has dynamite in his hands, Koscheck would be well served to stick to his bread and butter instead of trying to show off his striking too much.  It’s not that Koscheck isn’t capable of standing with Hendricks, because he very well might be, but his wrestling is an a whole different level and he would be foolish not to press such a sizable advantage.

Johny Hendricks is one of the Welterweight division’s fastest-rising stars, but in many ways Koscheck represents a sizable step up in competition for him.  Hendricks looked phenomenal in dropping Jon Fitch in a mere 12 seconds, but you can’t count on him winning many fights against top competitors that fast, and Koscheck is going to be able to test his readiness to compete at the highest level in a variety of ways.  The only loss of Hendricks’ career came at the hands of Rick Story, who was able to use his wrestling to keep Hendricks from teeing off with his powerful punching.  When it comes to pure wrestling, anything Story can do, Koscheck can do better, so Hendricks is going to have to show a very complete game if he wants to avoid getting planted on his back repeatedly and having his best weapons taken away from him.  Even on the feet, Koscheck has more than enough power to end a fight, so while Hendricks has a distinct advantage in that area he is still going to have to fight smart and not go into headhunter mode if he wants to avoid getting caught himself.

This is going to be a great test of just how ready Hendricks is for main event level fights.  There is no question that Hendricks has enough power in his hands to finish anyone foolish enough to let him start landing power punches, but Koscheck has a solid chin and world class wrestling which are going to give Hendricks a lot of problems. It would be wrong to call his win over Fitch a fluke, because he has proven time and again that he has fight ending punching power and great boxing technique, but the speed with which he floored Fitch is not something he can count on happening often.  It seems to be a given that Koscheck is going to give Hendricks the toughest test of his relatively young career, and I’m just not sure that he is going to be able to handle the pressure, both literally and figuratively. Hendricks has never had to fight with this much at stake before, and he has never faced an opponent besides Fitch with the toolset to completely neutralize him if things start to go poorly.  I think Hendricks is going to wilt under the pressure of Koscheck’s constant, effective takedowns, and find it difficult to really work his game much.  I don’t see Koscheck finishing this on the ground, but he should be able to take Hendricks down, neutralize his offense, and control pace and position well enough to earn the unanimous decision win.

Prediction:  Josh Koscheck by Unanimous Decision.

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UFC Middleweight bout:  Rousimar Palhares vs. Alan Belcher

Odds:  (-285 Palhares /+225 Belcher )

Fight Pick:  Palhares

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In a featured Middleweight matchup, Brazilian leg lock phenom Rousimar “Toquinho” Palhares will square off against Alan “The Talent” Belcher, who is a jiu-jitsu wizard in his own right.  Both of these guys are world-class grapplers with some of the best submissions in the Middleweight division, but Belcher is probably the better-rounded of the two while Palhares’ leglocks and heelhooks are more devastating than anything Belcher has in his tool belt.  If this fight goes to the ground, both guys have enough jiu-jitsu to finish, but Palhares is probably more effective.  That said, if Belcher can control when and how the fight plays out, he can likely punish Palhares badly on the feet and he is going to be hard to submit if he can control top position.  This is a very interesting matchup that could well have title shot implications in the Middleweight division, which is currently wide open.

Alan Belcher is one of the Middleweight division’s most versatile fighters.  Belcher has very solid wrestling, punishing boxing, and extremely effective submissions from a variety of positions.  He is a long-time veteran who has fought some very good opponents, and is a difficult guy to finish, having only been stopped 3 times in 23 professional fights.  What makes Belcher so dangerous is his ability to not only compete, but finish fights, in pretty much any position. Against Palhares, he is going to have to be extremely careful if the fight goes to the ground, because “Toquinho” has shown time and again that he is the sport’s foremost leg lock expert.  That is not to say that Belcher can’t win this fight on the ground, because his jiu-jitsu is good enough that he can catch anyone on any given night, but getting reckless in the grappling exchanges against Palhares could well spell doom for him.  Luckily for Belcher, he will enjoy a sizable advantage in punching power and technique, so if he can keep Palhares from forcing takedowns he will be in a great position to control the action and win the fight.

Rousimar Palhares is one of the UFC’s most intriguing young Middleweights.  “Toquinho” is a jiu-jitsu ace with amazing submissions from every conceivable position, but his leg locks, ankle locks, and heel hooks are definitely his bread and butter.  No one in the sport’s history has ever been as proficient at attacking their opponents’ legs as Palhares, and if he gets a hold of you, the best case scenario is a loss and the worst case scenario is a trip to the hospital.  Palhares does have a good all-around game, but against Belcher he is going to be at a serious disadvantage in the striking department.  There is no question that Palhares is going to try to get this fight to the ground and start attacking Belcher with submissions as early as he possibly can.  Belcher’s jiu-jitsu is extremely formidable as well, but if Palhares can keep this fight on the ground for long stretches of time it is going to be hard for Belcher or anyone he fights to hold him off.

As good a fighter as Belcher is, I think the edge here has to go to Palhares.  Belcher is undeniably the more versatile of the two, but he likes to take fights to the ground and work submissions himself, and I don’t think that is a winning strategy against someone as accomplished as Palhares.  Either way it happens, I see this fight being played out largely on the ground, and I don’t see a way for Belcher to survive against Palhares’ world-class submission game.  This is going to be a very exciting and competitive fight, but I think ultimately Palhares will find a mistake to capitalize on and take the submission victory.

Prediction:  Rousimar Palhares by third round sub.

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UFC Heavyweight bout: Pat Barry vs. Lavar Johnson

Odds: (-200 Barry /+160 Johnson)

Betting Pick:  Johnson

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In a featured Heavyweight matchup, heavy hitters Lavar Johnson and Pat Barry will look to assert their dominance in the striking game.  Both of these guys like to stand and bang, and both have serious fight-ending power in their fists.  These guys are coming to stand and trade, without a doubt, and when two guys as big, strong, and powerful this let the leather fly, fireworks are pretty much guaranteed. This is not the fight you want to get up during the middle of to go grab a soda, because it could be ever at any second.

“Big” Lavar Johnson is an extremely dangerous, albeit one-dimensional, striker.  Every time he steps into the Octagon, he comes to let his hands go and if he can’t impose his will on the feet, he is probably going to lose.  The biggest hole in his game is his utter lack of anything resembling grappling skills, but luckily he is fighting Pat Barry, who is just as inept on the ground as he is.  Johnson has overwhelming punching power and a very solid chin, which makes him aterror to stand and bang with.

Pat Barry, like Johnson, is a one-dimensional striker who is very effective doing the one thing he does well.  He always has the same game plan, which is to stand in front of his opponent and wing haymakers at them until someone is unconscious.  Like Johnson, every punch Barry throws has fight-ending potential and his chin is very durable.  The one issue Barry has in an increasingly oversized Heavyweight division is a lack of height and reach, which forces him to get dangerously close to his opponents to land shots.

In all likelihood, this will be a pretty quick fight.  Both of these guys are more than willing to throw caution to the wind and let their hands go with ill intent.  This is one of those fights that is likely to come down to which guy can land first, and I think against a rangy Heavyweight like Johnson, Barry is going to have trouble getting his boxing game going.  Johnson’s height and reach advantage, I think, will be the difference maker in a very close fight on paper.  I think Johnson will catch Barry trying to close the gap and put him down. Johnson by T/KO.

Prediction:  Lavar Johnson by second round T/KO.

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