Tag: General MMA betting

UFC Middleweight Bout:  Anderson Silva vs. Nick Diaz

Odds:  ( -450 Silva / +325 Diaz )

Betting Pick:  Silva

Bet on this fight at Bovada

Coming to us LIVE from Las Vegas, NV, UFC 183 brings us Anderson Silva vs. Nick Diaz. For being one of the most prolific fighters in the world today and having the #1 contender spot locked up, only being -450 in the sports books says something about Nick Diaz. Nick Diaz is a former Strikeforce Welterweight Champion and the oddsmakers are clearly bring that into consideration. Physicality wise, Silva holds a serious advantage, but fighting is more than just size. Diaz is thought to be more well rested, much younger than Silva at 39, and isn’t coming off an injury that would take many right out of the sport. I like how the oddsmakers are handling this fight, clearly Silva has the advantage but to count out Diaz would surely be a mistake. Placing these two inside the octagon will be something no UFC fan will want to miss.

Nick Diaz 27-9-1

As the other Diaz in the UFC, to describe Nick Diaz as mean, well would almost be nice. Nick Diaz can and has intimidated some of the most prolific UFC fighters to ever step inside the octagon. What Diaz might lack in size compared to Silva, which isn’t much, he makes up with being able to take as many punches as many fighters can throw. Now, statistically Diaz is a better striker, obviously debatable in a round-table discussion, submission capability on the other hand is something the Nick wins hands-down. Now with the striking capabilities of Diaz its tough for me to say that he should try and get this fight to the mat but we’ve all seen what Silva can do with fighters with lower than average striking defense. My advice for Diaz would be to try and end this fight as soon as possible. Silva can and will outlast Nick, but Nick can knock out Silva within the first two rounds. Nick needs to come out of the gates strong. Silva will be ready but timid until he lands a strong kick, Nick needs take advantage of that precious time of vulnerability.

Anderson Silva 33-6

The amount of headlines Anderson Silva brings to Las Vegas this weekend are endless. The Spider as we all know is coming back from one of the most gruesome injuries in the history of the UFC. Even with all of the obvious advantages Silva has coming into the fight, that injury will always be on the back of his mind. Silva’s state of mind won’t be known until that first bell rings but from who we know Anderson Silva is, he’ll come out as vicious as day one. Again, we have to presume his training is as intense as always and will be ready for the brawling fighting style Nick Diaz will bring to the octagon. If Silva is able to withstand the initial attack of Nick Diaz and regain his fighting composure we all know he has, Silva will make Nick Diaz look like a fool for stepping into the octagon with him.

This like any other fighter can have an unlimited amount of scenarios, but I really think very few are legitimately possible. This is the problem for Diaz, he does in with a brawler fighter style that typically overwhelms his opponents, and those fighters typically don’t fare well against Silva. That last fighter that tried that was Sonnen, and even though he came as close as any, he was caught and game over. Silva will be ready for this fight whether the fans of Diaz like it or not. Silva will not be scared to throw a kick at any point in the fight and won’t back down to any challenge placed in front of him. Now though we need to discuss the value of the bet. Silva’s is currently standing around -450 in the sports books. As we all know that means you will have to place $450 to win a $100. Even with those numbers, Silva is your only the way to go. Diaz will have way to much confidence and lose control of his movements leaving him open for that knockout blow we all know is coming. My prediction is that Diaz gets placed on his back in the second round and doesn’t get up. Silva will control most of   rounds one an two, then finish it in the third with a TKO.

Prediction:  Anderson Silva by Third round T/KO.

To Add a little excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bovada.Iv Odds. Check out my review of Bovada here…

UFC Light Heavyweight Bout:  Alexander Gustafsson vs. Anthony Johnson

Odds: ( -280 Gustafsson / +220 Johnson )

Betting Pick:  Johnson

Bet on this fight at Bovada

All the way from across the pond, UFC Fight Night on Fox 14 comes to us from Stockholm, Sweden this Saturday, January 24th. On the top of the card is the fight that could determine the next opponent for Jon Jones. Alexander Gustafsson will square of against Anthony Johnson. As we all remember, Gustafsson was as close as anyone to knocking Jones off the throne in their last fight as he came up just short. Anthony Johnson and his struggles have always been a headline in the UFC due to the undeniable talent that he possesses. Johnson has been on a tear as of late and Gustafsson hasn’t been in the octagon since last March will make for a fight no UFC fan will want to miss.

#3 Contender – Anthony Johnson 18-4

Anthony Johnson has been a wrecking ball in the UFC ever since his last reinstatement. Johnson hasn’t lost a fight since January 2012, and I don’t believe Johnson believes that is going to change. After Johnson quit trying to cut weight and began to fight in his normal weight class, we’ve been able to see the true talent this kid has to offer. Johnson comes into this fight with heavier hands, a better takedown average, and more effective takedown defense. Johnson is going to want to keep this fight on his feet. If you really crunch the numbers, Johnson has a 5% advantage in avoiding strikes from his opponent. If Gustafsson is ever to feel at a disadvantage on his feet, Johnson will more effectively be able to avoid any sort of takedown Gustafsson may try. My advice for Johnson would be to keep the physical advantages Gustafsson may have by keeping the fight in close proximity. With his knockout ability, any well significant strike could end the fight and his chances of landing one of these will be much higher from close range. Johnson is a slight underdog according to the odds makers at an average of +225. Being that this fight to most is a coin-flip, this could be a great bet.

#1 Contender – Alexander Gustafsson 16-2

To most, including himself, Gustafsson has the advantage in this fight. As stated earlier, Gustafsson has been the closest to knocking Jon Jones from his throne in their last bout. Gustafsson has every skill needed to win this figh,t he just needs to be able to use them at the right time. First off, if Gustafsson somehow is able to take this to the ground, Gustafsson has a significant advantage on the ground over Johnson. His submission skills are significantly better in every way and at some point in the fight; he needs to consider if that would be tactically smart. Looking at the number, striking is almost like a toss-up. With the slight reach advantage, Gustafsson should be able to keep this fight at somewhat of a distance. He doesn’t have the knockout ability of Johnson but looking back at many of his previous fights, he has the smarts to work a fight in ways that makes his advantages over his opponent shine. Gustafsson is going to keep this fight on his feet with Johnson, that’s just how its going to go but Gustafsson has slight more skills than Johnson has, and has seen better opponents in his career. Johnson also has a slightly poor defense when it comes to striking. Despite his rock-hard chin, if Gustafsson consistently lands what he normally does, this fight will get ugly, quickly. The odds makers have Gustafsson the favorite in this fight for good reason. Sitting around -280 averages in the sports books, Gustafsson to me is a scary bet. You’re looking at more of a coin-flip type of fight and needing to bet $280 to win a $100 just seems a bit worry-some to me.

This is going to be one hell of a fight. You’re talking about two fighters that, presumably whoever wins will get the spot to fight against Jones in his next title bout. For me, I like Johnson in this one with regards to betting and winning the fight. First off, Johnson is just a better bet when it comes to making money. This fight is basically a toss-up and his odds are high enough that you can make a pretty coin off of it. Secondly, I think he just has the mental advantage. He’s been on a tear since his last reinstatement and whole-heartedly doesn’t believe that even with the fight in Sweden, that’s ending anytime soon. Johnson will keep Gustafsson close and make him work to land anything significant.

Prediction: Anthony “Rumble” Johnson by third round T/KO.

To Add a little excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bovada.Iv Odds. Check out my review of Bovada here…

UFC Featherweight Bout:  Conor McGregor vs. Dennis Siver

Odds: ( -1100 McGregor / +650 Siver )

Betting Pick: McGregor in a Parlay

Bet on this fight at Bovada

Coming to us LIVE this Sunday, January 18th, at 7PST/10EST UFC on FOX bring us Conor McGregor vs Dennis Siver. Many people believe this to be a proving ground fight for Conor McGregor. McGregor still has many doubters about his place in the UFC and this fight was booked to prove them wrong. After looking at the comical betting lines laid for this fight, it almost seems like a waste of time. On average McGregor is -1000 that make betting $100 worth a whopping $10. IF the UFC wanted to prove to the world McGregor was the real deal, why 35 year old Dennis Siver? The UFC, fans, and Las Vegas sports books already have this matched etched in stone with McGregor winning handily, I’m here to make you think about the many possibilities we’ve all seen happen before.

#10 Dennis Siver 22-9

With odds at +900, Las Vegas already has this fight determined. Now at age 35, and with McGregor nearing the prime of his career, I can see where making Siver the underdog makes sense, but +900? It just seems so excessive. I’m my humble opinion, Siver has some advantages going for him that make these lines a serious threat to Las Vegas. I believe that Siver has a better submission offense that McGregor does. It wouldn’t be the first time that a under qualified fighter has slipped a arm bar and ended the dreams for the other fighter. Siver has a great striking defense. We all know that McGregor likes to knock his opponents out but I’m not quite sure that’ll easily be the case. Also, with 68% of Sivers’ wins coming by submission or decision, Siver can and will take you to the ground. I’m not advocating that Siver is superior to McGregor on the ground, but he can wear down the knockout ability and keep the match going. My advice for Siver would be to disrupt the timing of McGregor but wearing down his upper body grappling on the mat. McGregor is slick and can move, so let him up if your strength begins to deteriorate, but then stay close and bring him back down.

#5 Connor McGregor 16-2

Oddsmakers already are crunching the numbers for the McGregor vs. Aldo fight that this fight is basically a precursor for. At least thats what the UFC thinks. McGregor is superior to Siver in many different ways, yes, but we all need to remember that we are still placing two humans into a cage, anything can happen. Some downfalls that McGregor is going to have to overcome is how susceptible he is to straight punches and low kicks due to being a southpaw and having such a wide stance. He also needs to be sure to keep the pedal down after the first round. Looking back at many of his fights, he tends to be almost conservative if he doesn’t feel he can knock them out. McGregor can knockout anyone in his weight-class at all times and in every round. Once he can truly realize that, fights will become even easier for him. McGregor has heavier hands, younger, taller, and has a good submission defense to avoid the petty armor he may fall into. My advice for McGregor would be to defend against the initial attack from Siver and then  just hammer-down. You have more advantages than one needs to win this fight, use them all and it can be over quickly.

Look, this is an article on how I think the fight will go, and obviously in every aspect, McGregor has the advantage. The problem about this fight are the odds. A fighter being in the +900 range and being at the top of the card can cause problems. Siver wants to win this fight, he believes he can win this fight and those betting on him can make pretty penny. Betting wise, taking Siver is the smart pick, you can bet a minuscule amount and walk away with a serious chunk of change. I do believe that McGregor wins the fight in a second round TKO but with Siver at +900, taking your chances with Siver with a minimal investment is the better bet.

Prediction:  Conor McGregor by second round T/KO.

To Add a little excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bovada.Iv Odds. Check out my review of Bovada here…

UFC Light Heavyweight Title Fight:  Jon Jones vs. Daniel Cormier

Odds:  ( -175 Jones / +145 Cormier )

Betting Pick:  Jones

Bet on this fight at Bovada

Coming to us LIVE on January 3rd, 2015, from the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas is UFC 182. The main event features a match that world has been patiently waiting for ever since these two brawled on stage giving us a slight preview for whats to come. Jon “Bones” Jones will square off against Daniel “DC” Cormier. Both fights have similar fighting style with slight variations in the techniques they use. Wrestling is the common characteristic between these two with no advantage to either fighter. I understand the Jon Jones has the body of work equal to that of no one, but Cormier hasn’t lost and doesn’t plan to. Lets break it down.

Daniel “DC” Cormier #2  15-0-0 (Record)

Daniel Cormier is an absolute beast. He is is built like an industrial concrete building that would take explosives to take it down. Along with his stature comes his olympic wrestling technique. Typically you can use a winning streak to determine a fighters a momentum s but Cormier hasn’t lost which makes it difficult to say it really works in his favor! Lets quickly attack his weakness, submission and submission defense. Typically Cormier can control the fight with his elite wrestling skills if on the mat but his opponent this week isn’t just any other guy. Jones has jiu-jitsu skills second to few and could take advantage of Cormier’s lack of experience of possibly being on his back or in a vulnerable position. Cormier has explosive striking skills that aren’t advertised as much as they should be. One possible fight plan that Cormier might bring to the octagon is using his elite wrestling skills to tire or expose the possible lack of conditioning on the side of Jones then bring the fight to their feet and try to end the fight with an explosive knock-out. Even with a bigger body, I think that Cormier might have the speed advantage. If I were to give Cormier some advice, it would be to go at Jones from the sounds of the bell. Even with all of the acrobatics of Jones, he still works on a rhythm. Cormier needs to disrupt the time by moving, shooting, and closing the gap between the fighters when standing on their feet. Cormier can win this fight, and at only +140, Vegas thinks so as well.

Jon “Bones” Jones –  Champion – 20-1-0

How much can you possibly say about a guy who is arguably the best pound-for-pound fighter in the world that already hasn’t been said? He is quite simply a freak of nature. The athleticism Jones shows in the octagon is unlike any fighter right now in the UFC and it makes all of his skills just that much more deadly. Not only does Jones have long arms and legs coupled with speed and aerobatics, his wrestling skills are only second to the man that he’ll be starring in the eyes comes January 3rd. Even with the mental strength that Jones encompasses, he needs to realize who he is fighting. Cormier is no joke, and if Jones approaches him as just another guy, he’ll get thrown around like a rag-doll. On paper it looks like Jones should be able to handle Cormier and begin preparation for the next guy, but that is the reason they fight. Jones has a longer reach, younger, taller, and just has a overall better offense. That’s why I believe Jones will win this fight with his defense. Cormier is going to come at him will a storm of offense from the bell and if Jones can weather the initial barrage, he’ll be able to tip the scales heavily in his favor. Cormier has a plan and if Jones can play a version of rope-a-dope and confuse Cormier in an odd way, Jones will be able to unleash everything we’ve seen and more. Jones is going to want to keep his distance from Cormier at all times in the fight. Cormier will be trying to get in close, if Jones can use the advantages he has to keep Cormier at a distance I believe it will tire Cormier. My advice for Jones would be to keep Cormier at a distance with your legs. Disrupt everything Cormier is going to want to try to do and make him completely change his fight plan.

This is going to be one hell of a fight. Both of these fights have many of the same skills and will ultimately come down to who makes the first mistake. I believe the athleticism of Jones is going to be the deciding factor in this fight. I know the popular pick is going to be be Cormier because of the wrestling skills and the bull-like fighting style but Jon Jones isn’t like any other fighter in the world. Jones will be able weather whatever barrage of punches and takedowns Cormier comes out with and then finally be able to turn on the offense. Jones has a better offense than Cormier and it’ll show on Saturday night. Jones will land a series of significant strikes and then finish him.

Prediction:  Jon “Bones”Jones by Third Round T/KO.