Tag: General MMA betting

Here are my UFC 131 Fight Predictions.  I have put together full write ups for the Main Card and Quick Picks for the Prelims.   Be sure to Visit our Fight Information Page.

Junior Dos Santos over Shane Carwin via second round T/KO.

• Dos Santos vs. Carwin Prediction Page.

Kenny Florian over Diego Nunes via unanimous decision.

• Florian vs. Nunes Prediction Page.

Mark Munoz over Demian Maia via second round T/KO.

• Munoz vs. Maia Prediction Page.

Jon Olav Einemo over Dave Herman via first round armbar. @+160 Odds

• Einemo vs. Herman Prediction Page.

Donald Cerrone over Vagner Rocha via second round T/KO.

• Cerrone vs. Rocha Prediction Page.

Dustin Poirier over Jason Young via second round rear naked choke.

• Poirier vs. Young Prediction Page.

 

Preliminary Card Quick Picks

 

• Chris Weidmanover Jesse Bongfedlt via unanimous decision.
• Nick Ring over James Head via third round rear naked choke.
• Yves Edwards over Sam Stout via unanimous decision. @ +120 Odds
• Krzystof Soszynski over ike Massenzio via unanimous decision.
• Michihiro Omigawaover Darren Elkins via split decision.
• Joey Beltran over Aaron Rosa via second round T/KO. @+135 Odds

UFC Heavyweight bout:  Shane Carwin vs. Junior dos Santos

Odds:  ( +145 Carwin / -175 Dos Santos )

Betting Pick:  Dos Santos

Bet on this fight at Bodog.com

The main event of the evening is a big Heavyweight showdown pitting heavy-handed wrestler and former title challenger Shane Carwin against arguably the division’s most destructive striker in Junior “Cigano” dos Santos. Carwin is clearly the better-rounded of the two, with his heavy-handed boxing and good takedowns, but dos Santos’ striking is superlative, so this is going to be an extremely competitive fight.

Shane Carwin, a former challenger for the Heavyweight title, steps up as a late replacement for the man who beat him, Brock Lesnar. Carwin laid an insane beating on Lesnar before running out of gas, getting planted on his back, and choked out. He has been struggling with back injuries since then, but he is still a formidable force who can lay guys out with both hands and has top-notch wrestling that can overwhelm opponents. Against dos Santos he is going to really need his wrestling, because as good a striker as he is, he is going to be completely outgunned on the feet. The big question is how well his back injury issues have been handled and whether or not they will hamper his ability to change levels for takedowns.

Junior dos Santos is unbeaten so far in his UFC stint despite only really displaying one offensive tool. He hasn’t really shown any wrestling, takedown defense, or grappling, largely because his striking has completely overwhelmed everyone he has faced. He is fast, accurate, and powerful and he can hurt guys with all four limbs from any range, including in the clinch. Every other part of his game is a question mark. He may well have great takedown defense, but he has never really been tested in his UFC career. By all accounts he does have some submissions, since he trains with the Nogueira brothers and some other top-notch grapplers, but he is going to be in trouble if he winds up underneath Carwin for any extended period of time.

This is a very compelling matchup for a variety of reasons. Carwin is clearly not on the same level as dos Santos in terms of striking prowess, but he does have one-punch power that could test dos Santos’ chin in a way it has never been tested. He also has great wrestling, although he tends to prefer to stand and bang. If Carwin comes into this fight with the right game plan and tries to just bullrush dos Santos to the ground and pour on punishment from top position, he could very well pull of a win. I think that his propensity for standing and trading shots, along with his back injuries which might hamper his ability to score takedowns, is going to cost him this fight though. dos Santos is just too much for almost anyone to deal with on the feet, and I think he will make Carwin pay for standing with him for even a short time. dos Santos by T/KO.

Prediction:  Junior Dos Santos via second round T/KO.

To add  a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds.   Check out my review of Bodog here…

UFC Featherweight bout:  Kenny Florian vs. Diego Nunes

Odds:  ( -265 Florian / +205 Nunes )

Betting Pick:  Florian

Bet on this fight at Bodog.com

In the semi-main event, Kenny “KenFlo” Florian makes his first appearance at 145 pounds against top-10 contender Diego Nunes.  Florian was very successful at Lightweight, but found himself unable to deal with some of the larger wrestlers who dominate the division.  145 seems like a much more natural weight for him, but Nunes is an extremely tough opponent who has a tendency to neutralize his opponents and make them look bad, so Florian is going to need to bring his A game if he wants a successful debut in a new division.

Diego ” The Gun” Nunes is an extremely effective fighter with a versatile offensive skill set.  He has very technical striking, great submissions, and very solid wrestling.  He puts his game together very well and is very good at taking his opponents off their games.  He isn’t always the most exciting fighter to watch, but he is one of the best in the division at neutralizing his opponents’ offense, picking his shots, and scoring points.  He was a prolific finisher early in his career, but his last six fights have gone the distance and two of his last three wins were controversial split decisions.  Against Florian, who is just as well-rounded as he is and has many of the same skills, he is going to need to be more aggressive than he has been recently if he wants to avoid a loss.

Kenny Florian is also quite well-rounded, but unlike Nunes he is very aggressive and a prolific finisher.  Florian made a huge impression during his UFC debut on the original Ultimate Fighter, making it all the way to the finals despite fighting 30 plus pounds above his natural weight.  Originally a jiu-jitsu guy, he has become a dynamic and effective striker over the years, with solid boxing and very good Muay Thai in the clinch.  The only thing missing from his game is dominant wrestling, but he does have good takedown defense and he should be even more effective at 145 pounds, where he won’t have to deal with bigger and stronger opponents.

I think Nunes might be in trouble here.  Florian has a very similar skill set, but is more aggressive, more effective, and a better finisher.  Nunes is very good, but I think Florian is going to consistently beat him to the punch and Nunes isn’t going to be able to force the fight to the ground.  Even if it does hit the mat, it is entirely likely that Florian is the better grappler.  Nunes is a tough guy and I doubt he will get finished, but I expect Florian to control this fight bell to bell for a one-sided unanimous decision.

Prediction:  Kenny Florian via Unanimous Decision.

To add  a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds.   Check out my review of Bodog here…

UFC Heavyweight bout:  Jon Olav Einemo vs. Dave Herman

Odds:  ( +190 Einemo / -250 Herman )

Betting Pick:  Einemo

Bet on this fight at Bodog.com

In the third bout of the evening, Golden Glory’s Jon Olav Einemo returns to the sport after a layoff of nearly five years to face off against Elite XC and Bellator veteran Dave “Pee-Wee” Herman. What’s interesting about this fight is that Herman has way more fights under his belt than Einemo does, and all 22 of his professional bouts have come since the last time Einemo fought. Both of these guys are big, strong, and have great striking, so this should be a very exciting matchup.

Jon Olav Einemo is a very compelling figure. At 6′6, he is a very tall and rangy fighter who uses his reach very effectively. He has very good striking with a lot of power, but he is also one of the world’s best Heavyweight grapplers. He is somewhat thin and lanky and isn’t very physically strong, but he has a huge arsenal of offensive tools both standing and on the ground. The big question is how he will handle the long layoff from the sport. After fighting four times between 2000 and 2003, he was away from the sport for almost 3 years, fought two more times, and has not competed since 2006. A layoff like that could be disastrous on his performance, but he has so many skills that it would be extremely dangerous to underestimate him.

Dave “Pee-Wee” Herman is an extremely prolific striker who has fought on smaller shows all over the world, but this is his first appearance in the UFC. His striking technique is excellent, and he has a surplus of knockout power. Unlike Einemo, Herman has been very active over the last five years, fighting all over Japan, in Bellator, and in Elite XC. He does have some ground game, but he will not be able to hang with Einemo’s submission skills if this fight gets to the ground. He is going to need to try to keep this fight standing, use his superior strength and physicality to bully Einemo around, and try to get inside his range and land power punches.

Despite his five year layoff, I think this matchup favors Einemo. His long arms and ability to use his reach to keep Herman at a distance should help him avoid Herman’s power punching, and he should be able to find a way to drag this fight to the ground, where he will enjoy a marked advantage. I just think Einemo is too well-rounded for Herman, and he should be able to survive on the feet long enough to get this fight down to the ground and secure a submission.

Prediction:  Jon Olav Einemo via first round armbar.

To add  a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds.   Check out my review of Bodog here…

UFC Middleweight bout:  Demian Maia vs. Mark Munoz

Odds:  ( Even- Maia / -130 Munoz )

Betting Pick:  Munoz

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In the second bout of the evening, Brazilian jiu-jitsu ace Demian Maia faces a very stiff challenge in heavy-handed wrestler Mark Munoz. Maia is one of the most superlative grapplers in the sport, and his jiu-jitsu is good enough to compensate for his one-dimensional offense, but Munoz is a tough matchup for him because he has very good striking with a lot of power and is difficult to get to the ground. Stylistically, this is one of the most interesting matchups of the night and it should make for a very interesting fight.

Demian Maia’s jiu-jitsu skills cannot possibly be overstated. From every position on the ground, he is a constant threat to submit anyone in the world. His boxing is improving steadily, and he actually has pretty good punching technique, but he lacks power and his defense on the feet is porous. More troubling is that his wrestling is just not up to snuff, which is a big problem for a guy who depends solely on his ground game to get wins. Against Munoz, that is going to be an even bigger problem than usual, because Munoz is a bigger, stronger guy with extremely good wrestling. Still, even if he has to resort to pulling guard, if Maia can get this fight to the ground he immediately becomes a big favorite.

Mark “The Filipino Wrecking Machine” Munoz is an extremely dangerous fighter with a great offensive skill set. He is a very big and strong guy with a lot of wrestling skill and very solid, heavy-handed boxing. On the feet he is extremely effective, both in terms of being able to dole out punishment with his hands and neutralizing their clinch work. His takedowns are also very effective and he can put a hurting on his opponents from top position, but against Maia trying to take this fight to the ground would be a colossal mistake. Munoz has a distinct advantage on the feet, and if he uses his wrestling defensively to keep Maia from being able to work for submissions and tries to box him around on his feet, he will be in a great position to win this fight.

I think Munoz has to be considered the favorite here. Maia is better at jiu-jitsu than Munoz is at anything, but this is a bad style matchup for him. He is going to have a lot of trouble getting Munoz to the ground, both because Munoz is the vastly superior wrestler and because Maia’s takedown attempts are going to be hampered by Munoz’s bruising boxing. I think Munoz is going to be able to keep Maia at bay and thwart his takedown attempts, and Maia is not going to be able to hold up in the face of Munoz’s boxing. Munoz by T/KO.

Prediction:  Mark Munoz via second round T/KO.

To add  a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds.   Check out my review of Bodog here…

UFC Featherweight bout:  Dustin Poirier vs. Jason Young

Odds:  ( Poirier / Young )

Betting Pick:  Poirier

Bet on this fight at Bodog.com

In the opening bout of the evening, Britain’s Jason “Shotgun” Young steps up on late notice to replace the injured Rani Yahya against rising star Dustin “The Diamond” Poirier. Poirier is coming off a huge upset win against Josh “The Fluke” Grispi in his UFC debut, and now he is looking to spoil Young’s big show debut and avoid a big upset of his own. Both of these guys have versatile skill sets, but it remains to be seen how Young will handle the bright lights of the UFC, not to mention his short prep time for this fight.

Jason “Shotgun” Young, a veteran of Cage Rage and some other smaller shows, is making his first appearance in the UFC, and he is doing it on short notice against a very skilled opponent who is riding a lot of momentum. Young is fairly versatile, with decent striking and serviceable wrestling, but he isn’t the kind of guy who is going to take control of a fight or really back opponents off with one dominant skill. He does have decent punching power, but his striking isn’t top-level. He is going to have his hands full here dealing with short notice, a technically superior opponent, and his first time fighting on such a huge stage.

Dustin “The Diamond” Poirier had made a rapid rise in his young career. After a rough start to his stint in WEC, dropping a decision loss to Danny Castillo, he put on a great performance stopping Zachary Micklewright on strikes. In his last fight, he pulled off a huge upset by thoroughly beating top contender Josh Grispi in his UFC debut, a fight he was expected to lose. Poirier has a very well-rounded skill set, with good technical striking, good punching power, decent wrestling, and effective submissions. He is also a very good finisher, having only won one fight by decision.

This is going to be a rough matchup for Jason Young. Poirier is just a better, more complete fighter, he has fought better opponents, he didn’t take this fight on short notice, and his strengths play right into Young’s weaknesses. All three of Young’s professional losses are by submission, and Poirier’s submissions are very effective. I don’t think Young is ready for this level of competition, and certainly not without a full camp to prepare, and he is going to pay the price. Poirier by submission.

Prediction:  Dustin Poirier via second round rear naked choke.

To add  a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds.   Check out my review of Bodog here…