Tag: General MMA betting

UFC Middleweight bout:  Ed Herman vs. Tim Credeur

Odds:  (-135 Herman /-105 Credeur )

Betting Pick:  Credeur

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In a featured Middleweight bout, tough wrestler Ed “Short Fuse” Herman will square off against another Ultimate Fighter alum in Louisiana’s Tim “Crazy” Credeur. Herman is a tough bruiser with great takedowns and top control, but Credeur has serious striking prowess and a top-level submission game, so Herman is going to need a really solid game plan if he wants to avoid falling into Credeur’s best areas. With both of these guys coming off a loss, they have a lot to fight for here in order to maintain their place in the company, since neither guy is a very established star or at the top of the Middleweight division.

Ed Herman, who originally debuted as a member of Team Shamrock on The Ultimate Fighter 3, is a very skilled wrestler with solid top control, punishing ground and pound, underrated submissions from top position, and fairly decent boxing. While he is hardly an overpowering striker and he lacks in technique, he does have heavy hands and he uses his boxing to set up his takedowns fairly well. The big hole in his game is his submission defense, which is notoriously porous. Against a grappler on Credeur’s level, that could be a big problem, so he is going to have to be careful on top if he doesn’t want to get choked out.

Tim Credeur also made his way to UFC through the Ultimate Fighter series, and has carved out a nice niche for himself. A solid technical striker with knockout power, Credeur’s best work still comes on the ground, where he has submissions from every position. Credeur is a consummate finisher, having never won a fight by decision and only having gone the distance once in his professional career. There is no question he can outstrike Herman, the question is how well he will be able to work off his back underneath Herman’s stifling top control.

I think this matchup favors Credeur. On the feet he has a clear advantage in terms of technique, hand speed, and accuracy. It is unlikely he will be able to prevent Herman from taking him down for the entire fight, but he is great off his back and Herman is notorious for getting too aggressive on top and leaving himself open for submissions, especially triangle chokes. Herman is going to have no choice but to take this fight to the ground, since Credeur is a vastly superior striker, but I don’t like his chances of staying on top of Credeur for three rounds without presenting an opening. Credeur by submission.

Prediction:  Tim Credeur via second round armbar.

To add  a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds.   Check out my review of Bodog here…

UFC Featherweight bout:  George Roop vs. Josh Grispi

Odds:  (+350 Roop /-550 Grispi )

Betting Pick:  Grispi

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In the semi-main event, former top contender Josh “The Fluke” Grispi will look to rebound from his upset loss to Dustin Poirier against a fellow WEC alum George Roop. Roop is something of a journeyman, but he still has a versatile skill set and some dynamic offense, so if Grispi takes him lightly he might find himself on the wrong end of another upset. Grispi, who looked set for a title short before coming up short against Poirier, can’t afford to drop his first two UFC bouts if he wants to stay relevant as a top contender, has a lot on the line in this fight and is going to need his best performance to show why he belongs at the top of the 145 pound division.

George Roop, a WEC veteran with a variety of skills, has seen his career held back by a host of inconsistent performances. A solid technical boxer with decent wrestling and a fairly effective submission game, Roop’s big problem is that he can’t take over a fight in any one area and he lacks any one dominant skill. He is forced to try and hang in fights where they go because nothing about his offensive skill set enables him to push the pace of a fight or force a fight where he wants it to go.

In many ways, Josh Grispi is exactly the opposite of Roop. Unlike Roop, Grispi can take a fight over both standing and on the ground, and has the ability to finish a fight wherever it plays out. He isn’t the world’s most dominant wrestler, but he has great standup with a lot of power, extremely effective submissions, and a decent ability to get fights to the ground when he needs to. He doesn’t really need dominant wrestling, because he can handle opponents in the striking and, if he gets taken down, can work from any position and is always a threat to submit opponents.

What this fight comes down to is that Grispi is just better than Roop at everything. On the feet he will demolish Roop, Roop doesn’t have the ability to get him to the ground, and even if he does Grispi’s ground game is on a whole different level. I expect this fight to play out on the feet, though, and Grispi will easily box Roop around before finishing him. Grispi by T/KO.

Prediction:  Josh Grispi via third round T/KO.

To add  a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds.   Check out my review of Bodog here…

UFC Lightweight bout:  Anthony Pettis vs. Clay Guida

Odds:  (+190 Guida /-250 Pettis )

Betting Pick:  Pettis

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In the main event of the evening, WEC standout Anthony “Showtime” Pettis finally makes his UFC debut against tough, aggressive wrestler Clay “The Carpenter” Guida. Pettis closed his WEC stint with a bang, manhandling highly regarded Benson Henderson and pasting him with one of the most spectacular kicks in the history of the sport following a highlight reel wall walk along the cage. Pettis is an extremely dynamic young fighter with explosive striking, great wrestling, and excellent submissions, but Guida’s aggressive style, relentless pace, and dominant wrestling have been known to create nightmares for opponents, so Pettis is going to have his hands full in his big show debut.

Anthony Pettis was one of WEC’s most exciting young Lightweight prospects, and he really came into his own in the last fight in the company. He came into his fight with Benson Henderson as an underdog despite an impressive win streak, but he easily neutralized Henderson’s wrestling and outstruck him in a very serious way. While he didn’t manage to finish Henderson, he put an exclamation mark on the fight by walking across the cage wall and landing a huge roundhouse kick that caught Bendo right in the face. What makes Pettis so dangerous is that he is physical, has great wrestling, and is a finisher both standing and on the ground. He has submissions from every position and knockout power with all four of his limbs. As long as he doesn’t get the big show jitters, he has the offensive tools to assert himself in UFC’s crowded Lightweight division immediately.

Clay “The Carpenter” Guida is one of UFC’s most recognizable Lightweights due to his long mane of wild hair and his hyper-aggressive sparkplug style. Guida’s wrestling is extremely solid, and he is very good at doling out punishment from top position. Probably his best attribute is his incredible cardiovascular conditioning, which allows him to keep up a relentless pace for the entire duration of his bouts. Guida’s ability to keep the pressure on and never stop moving forward has been known to throw his opponents off their game, which is a good thing since his offense is actually extremely one-dimensional. His boxing is suspect at best and he tends to telegraph his takedowns, which makes them easier to defend. He has been successful because he never tires out and eventually just wears his opponents down, which allows him to start scoring with his takedowns and bruising guys from top position.

This is a bad matchup for Guida, who has a hard time with superior strikers who have enough wrestling to negate his telegraphed takedown attempts. Pettis is easily the superior striker, and his wrestling and cardio are good enough to keep Guida from overwhelming him in a three-round fight. I think Guida is going to get manhandled on the feet, and his wrestling isn’t going to be good enough to prevent Pettis from boxing him around at will. Pettis by T/KO.

Prediction:  Anthony “Showtime” Pettis via second round T/KO.

To add  a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds.   Check out my review of Bodog here…