Gilbert Melendez (20-2) vs. Josh Thompson (19-4)
Fight fans love trilogies. And while this one has a bit of a foregone conclusion feel to it, the fighters did split their first two fights and Josh Thompson earned this title shot by controlling KJ Noons in their March fight. Melendez dominated Thompson in their last fight and since then, Thompson has struggled with injuries while Melendez has continued to develop into one of the best lightweights in the world. But with Strikeforce’s 155 pound division featuring names like Ryan Couture and Pat Healy as the next best options after Thompson, this was really the only fight to be made.
In a third fight like this, pre-fight discussion and analysis is generally rendered moot. We have seen this fight before. We know exactly what to expect. Melendez will use his boxing to set up takedowns and try to maintain top control. From there, he will use his ground striking to wear down Thompson and hopefully finish the fight in the later rounds.
Thompson will use his kicks to keep Melendez on the outside. He will look to stuff Melendez’ takedown attempts and create scrambles. Out of the scrambles, he will look to find his way to top position and show his own ground and pound skills as well as try to lock on to a submission if Melendez leaves him an opening.
A finish to this fight before the twenty five minutes have passed is unlikely. Melendez goes into the fight as a huge favorite at -445 with Thompson the underdog at +345. Based on the previous fights and what we have seen from both fighters since those fights, Melendez is the obvious choice to win this fight. But everyone, even Melendez, knows that. And that’s the biggest danger for the champion in this fight. Josh Thompson is still an elite fighter and Melendez cannot afford to take him lightly. Thompson will be coming out to prove that he is fully recovered from his injuries and ready to reclaim his title. And if Melendez has had anything other than a championship caliber training camp, Thompson could score the upset.
Rafael Cavalcante (11-3) vs. Mike Kyle (19-8)
In another rematch, former Strikeforce light heavyweight champion Rafael “Feijao” Cavalcante tries to avenge a 2009 loss to well-traveled veteran Mike Kyle. Feijao was expected to win the first fight but tired in the second round and suffered an upset TKO loss. Kyle will be looking to prove that the first fight wasn’t a fluke and put together back to back wins.
Feijao has the unique history of never having been involved in a decision and I wouldn’t expect this fight to be the first. Both fighters have power in their hands and both have a history of either finishing fights or being finished. Feijao’s biggest asset is his muay thai and he will look to keep the fight on the feet. He will try to pull Kyle into the clinch where he can utilize his versatile striking skill set. His knees are the most dangerous part of his arsenal but his punches and elbows are dangerous as well. Expect Feijao to close the distance, push Kyle against the cage and look to attack in the clinch from there. Kyle is not averse to fighting in close and he will look to counter Feijao’s muay thai with dirty boxing. Considering his opponent’s history of cardio issues, I would expect Kyle to attack the body early and try to tire Feijao. Kyle would also be smart to try to wrestle Feijao to the ground and wear on him with ground and pound.
Feijao is the favorite going in to the fight at -205 with Kyle at +165. If Feijao is in shape and motivated, he should finish Kyle by the end of the second round. But if Kyle can push the pace early and keep the fight on the ground, he could grind out a late stoppage or decision.
-Alan Wells