Tag: UFC betting

UFC Welterweight Bout:  Jon Fitch vs. Erick Silva

Odds: ( +105 Fitch / -135 Silva )

Betting Pick:  Fitch

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In a featured Welterweight matchup, rising star Erick “Indio” Silva faces his toughest challenge yet in the form of perennial top contender Jon Fitch. Silva is a very well-rounded fighter with dangerous submissions and solid punching who has only suffered one legitimate loss as a professional. His other loss, a DQ against Carlo Prater, came in a fight he was clearly in control of. Fitch, while not the most exciting or well-liked fighter in the UFC Welterweight division, is nevertheless a master of imposing his will on opponents and grinding them down for decision victories. If Silva wants to keep progressing toward a future title shot, he is going to have to find a way to survive Fitch’s grinding style and survive a drawn-out, grueling fight.

Erick Silva, a Team Nogueira product, is a very versatile fighter who is dangerous both standing and on the ground. He isn’t the most devastating puncher in the division, but he does have some knockout power to go along with very good hand speed and technique on the feet. His submissions are very good from a variety of positions, and he showed against Charlie Brenneman that he has plenty of ability to get out of bad positions on the ground as well. Against Fitch, that might be his most important attribute. Silva clearly has a better submission game, but I find it highly unlikely he will be able to take Fitch down, which means that if this fight hits the mat Silva will be underneath Fitch, who is notoriously hard to shake off. Silva is going to have to try to use his footwork and speed to stick and move on the feet, not allowing Fitch to push him up against the cage, clinch, and wear him down steadily if he wants to win this fight.

Jon Fitch’s fighting style is not one that tends to excite fans, but there is no denying that it is effective. Despite a shocking 12-second knockout loss in his last fight, Fitch has been one of the Welterweight division’s most consistent performers over the last few years, using his clinch game and dirty boxing to neutralize opponents and grind out one-sided decision wins. One reason Fitch has been so successful is that instead of trying to counter his opponents, he sticks to his own game plan and never deviates from it. He will do the same against Silva, trying to clinch up on the feet, use the cage to keep Silva locked in place, and bruise him up on the inside while he controls position.

I don’t think this is a particularly good style matchup for Silva. He lacks the kind of one-punch power that allowed Johny Hendricks to score a huge upset win, and he doesn’t have dominant wrestling that would allow him to put Fitch in a disadvantageous position. I think this one will play out like most of Fitch’s fights, with Fitch taking few chances, controlling Silva against the cage, and scoring enough points for a unanimous decision win.

Prediction:  Jon Fitch by Unanimous Decision.

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UFC Light Heavyweight Bout:  Anderson Silva vs. Stephan Bonnar

Odds:  (-1100 Silva / +650 Bonnar )

Betting Pick: Silva in a Parlay

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In the main event of the evening, dominant UFC Middleweight champion Anderson “The Spider” Silva returns to the Light Heavyweight division, where he will square off against Ultimate Fighter Season 1 finalist “The American Psycho” Stephan Bonnar. Bonnar is a company man through and through, and stepping on late notice to fight such a dangerous opponent proves it, but he is quite likely biting off a lot more than he can chew in this one. Silva is arguably the most prolific and dominant striker in the history of Mixed Martial Arts, and since Bonnar also relies pretty much exclusively on his standup, he is going to wind up trying to beat the master at his own game. Forrest Griffin, who famously defeated Bonnar in the legendary Ultimate Fighter Season 1 finals, learned the hard way that trying to stand and trade shots with Silva is a foolish plan, so if Bonnar wants to avoid his friend’s fate he is going to need to pull off a miracle.

Stephan Bonnar is not one of the UFC’s most talented Light Heavyweights, but there is no denying that he is one of the toughest. Although he is riding a three-fight win streak, he has won only three of his last six and and five of his last ten fights. Bonnar is a tough, durable fighter, which he showed by being one of the few guys who managed to last three rounds against Light Heavyweight champion Jon “Bones” Jones, but he is not a very good finisher and lacks any one dominant offensive skill that allows him to control fights. Silva has shown time and again that if you can’t finish a fight against him, he will find a way to pull out a win, so that is going to cause big problems for Bonnar here. While Bonnar has a fair number of wins by submission, most of those came very early in his career against subpar opponents, and in the UFC he has largely relied on his solid boxing and durable chin to win fights. Standing in front of Anderson Silva with little to no chance of knocking him out and hoping your chin holds up for three rounds does not seem like a recipe for success, though.

Anderson “The Spider” Silva is, without a doubt, the most dominant champion in UFC history. He has cleaned out UFC’s Middleweight division in unprecedented fashion, and even holds a couple of impressive knockout wins in the Light Heavyweight division already. There is no question that Silva is the best striker in the history of the UFC. He not only possesses devastating power with both punches and kicks, he is one of the most creative and dynamic kickboxers the sport has ever seen. His clinch game probably still haunts Rich Franklin’s nightmares. Not only has Silva shown that he is capable of overwhelming opponents with unbelievable striking, he has proven that he is more than capable of handling adversity as well. Against Dan Henderson and in his first fight with Chael Sonnen, Silva found himself in very bad positions, and both times managed to hold on, survive, and pull off excellent submissions to win. The idea of a striker as prolific as Silva who also has submissions from every position and can work effectively off his back would be hard to believe had he not been doing it for years already.

Let’s call this fight what it is: a huge, glaring mismatch. Not to take anything away from Bonnar, who is a solid fighter with a good chin and a ton of heart, but he has absolutely nothing to offer Silva here. Bonnar is a boxer who lacks knockout power, and he is going to stand in front of a vastly superior kickboxer who hits twice as hard, at least. Not only that, it is entirely likely that Silva is the better grappler as well. Bonnar is outclassed here in every way. It’s commendable that he stepped up to take this fight and give the Brazilian fans an entertaining main event, but his chances of victory are so low as to be almost zero. Silva will have his way with Bonnar on the feet before taking a one-sided T/KO victory.

Prediction:  Anderson “The Spider” Silva by second round T/KO.

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UFC Heavyweight Bout: Antonio “Minotauro” Nogueira vs. Dave Herman

Odds:  (-335 Nogueira /+255 Herman )

Betting Pick:  Big Nog

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In the semi-main event, heavy-handed slugger Dave Herman will look to halt a two-fight skid as he squares off against former PRIDE Heavyweight champion and Interim UFC Heavyweight champion Antonio Rodrigo “Minotauro” Nogueira. Both of these guys are coming off disappointing losses, but they both have dangerous skill sets and this is a very interesting style matchup that should produce a very entertaining fight. Nogueira has made a career out of taking savage beatings and then finding a way to pull off a miracle finish, but it looks lately as if years of intense punishment have finally caught up with him. Herman is more than equipped to deliver one of those savage beatings with his powerful striking game, but he has never had his ground game tested the way Nogueira can, and is in fact not nearly as technical or quick-handed in the striking as Nogueira is. This is a very compelling showdown between power and technique, and it should be interesting to see which of the two prevails.

Dave Herman is a long-time veteran who had stints in ShoXC, EliteXC, and Bellator before making his way to the UFC. There is no question that what Herman does best is let his hands go with brute force behind every punch. Herman is a consummate knockout artist, but he relies primarily on the raw power behind his haymakers to get the job done. Technique-wise, he is not a particularly accomplished striker. Even more troubling for a guy whose bread and butter is standing and trading huge shots, Herman’s chin has gone beyond suspect and is now firmly in the “bad” camp. Nogueira is not known as a knockout artist, but he does have some power, and his ability to consistently beat Herman to the punch on the feet could present problems for the big man. It would be foolish in the extreme for Herman to attempt to take Nogueira down, where he would be utterly outclassed, so Herman’s gameplan in this fight amounts to swinging for the fences and hoping he connects with a knockout punch.

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira is a legend in the sport, but recently it appears as if his best days are definitely behind him. The durability that allowed him to pull off so many ridiculous come from behind victories seems to be a fading memory, but the one thing he still possesses is stellar technique, both standing and on the ground. Nogueira isn’t a huge power puncher like Herman, but he has very quick hands, great footwork, and accurate punching. On the ground, Nogueira is one of the most accomplished Heavyweight grapplers in the history of Mixed Martial Arts. This fight is going to come down to whether or not Nogueira can consistently get his punches off first, I think. He has more than enough hand speed and accuracy to outbox Herman, but if he lets Herman land big power punches, I’m not sure that his chin can hold up to the kind of punishment it used to.

This should be a competitive fight, but I think Nogueira has the slight edge. He has better footwork, better hand speed, and better technique, all of which should help keep him out of trouble in the standup. If this fight goes to the ground, I think Nogueira has a very clear advantage no matter who is on top. I expect Herman to land a few big punches, but Nogueira should be able to stick and move enough to control the pace, scoring enough points for a unanimous decision win.

Prediction:  Antonio Nogueira by Unanimous Decision.

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UFC Heavyweight Bout:  Travis Browne vs. Bigfoot Silva

Odds:  ( -235 Browne /+185 Silva )

Betting Pick:  Browne

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In the main event of the evening, undefeated Heavyweight slugger Travis “Hapa” Browne will face by far the toughest challenge of his young career in the form of one-time Strikeforce Heavyweight champion Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva. This is a great matchup on paper, because both of these guys are huge, heavy-handed punchers with excellent ground games to back up their striking. Silva is coming off an extremely one-sided loss to former UFC Heavyweight champion Cain Velasquez, but he has years of top-level experience and one of the most dangerous offensive skill sets in UFC’s Heavyweight division. If Browne wants to keep his undefeated record intact, he is going to have to find a way to weather the relentless, punishing offense Silva is known for and try to beat Silva at his own game.

Travis “Hapa” Browne is one of the most exciting Heavyweight prospects in the UFC. He has put together a very impressive undefeated record on the strength of his powerful striking and a very solid submission game, especially from top position. While this is his first fight against a top tier Heavyweight, he has handled his incremental steps up in competition very well. He showed against Cheick Kongo and Stefan Struve that he can handle fighting guys with dangerous striking of their own, and that is going to come in handy against the heavy-handed Silva. On the feet, I think the edge against Silva probably goes to Browne, so the most important thing for him is to make sure that if this fight does go to the ground, he is in top position. Silva is brutal with ground and pound from the top, and as good as Browne’s jiu-jitsu is, I don’t see him being able to work off his back effectively underneath “Bigfoot”.

Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva, the former Strikeforce Heavyweight champion, is an extremely dangerous fighter who can hurt opponents with strikes, submissions, and ground and pound. He is not the fastest guy in the world, either in terms of hand speed or on his feet, but he is extremely powerful and uses his size very well to neutralize his opponents. Although he is currently coming off two straight losses, he has more than enough offensive skills to threaten anyone he fights. Both of his last two losses, though, came by way of punches, so he is going to have to be wary of Browne’s power on the feet and try to work his way into top position, where I think his grappling is good enough to control position and punish Browne with hard ground and pound.

Stylistically, I think this matchup favors Browne. Browne has faster hands and more punching power, something Silva has trouble dealing with. “Bigfoot” does his best work when he can control opponents with superior physicality, but Browne is a huge guy who is not going to be bullied around. I think Silva is going to find taking Browne down very difficult, and will see his chin exploited in the striking game eventually. Browne by T/KO

Prediction:  Travis “Hapa” Browne by third round T/KO.

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UFC Heavyweight Bout: Stefan Struve vs. Stipe Miocic

Odds: (+160 Struve / -200 Miocic )

Betting Pick:  Struve

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In the main event of the evening, undefeated Heavyweight prospect Stipe Miocic takes a big step up in competition to face towering Dutch striker Stefan “Skyscraper” Struve. Both of these guys have extremely dangerous striking, but Struve is going to enjoy a huge advantage in terms of height, reach, and experience. If Miocic wants to extend his record to 10-0, he is going to have to find a way to get inside Struve’s long reach and land big punches on the inside while also avoiding takedowns, because Struve is a world-class submission fighter and Miocic has never been tested on the ground by someone of his caliber.

Stipe Miocic is one of UFC’s most exciting Heavyweight prospects. Undefeated as a professional, Miocic has steadily climbed the ranks on the strength of his outstanding striking and devastating punching power. All 9 of Miocic’s wins have come as a result of strikes, with 8 T/KOs and one submission due to leg kicks. Since arriving in the UFC, Miocic has steadily stepped up his level of competition, and scored a great win against Shane del Rosario in his last outing. There is no question, though, that Struve is the most dangerous fighter he has ever faced, both standing and on the ground. Struve’s reach and technique make him a difficult guy to stand and trade against, and he has arguably the best submissions in the Heavyweight division, so Miocic is going to have his hands full. The one thing going in Miocic’s favor here is that Struve’s chin can definitely be exploited, and Miocic has the power to do just that. If he can find a way inside Struve’s huge range and work punches and dirty boxing from in close, he will be in a great position to put Struve to sleep.

Stefan “Skyscraper” Struve is one of the UFC’s most dangerous dual-threat Heavyweights. He is a tall, rangy kickboxer who uses his height and reach exceptionally well, and he has amazing submissions from a much wider variety of positions than most Heavyweight grapplers. Offensively, Struve is one of the most dangerous Heavyweights in the UFC, but his striking defense does leave a bit to be desired. The opponents who have managed to defeat Struve have all been heavy-handed punchers with solid chins who managed to get through his long range and abuse his weak chin on the inside, and Miocic seems to fit that bill. If Struve wants to avoid yet another knockout loss, he is going to have to do everything he can to keep Miocic on the end of his punches or to find a way to take this fight to the ground, where he will enjoy a massive advantage in technique.

This is a tough fight to call. Miocic has never fought a striker or a grappler as dangerous as Struve, much less one guy who can do both things so effectively. That said, Miocic seems like the kind of fighter specifically designed to exploit Struve’s weaknesses. If Miocic can get inside Struve’s range, he has more than enough technique and power to blow Struve up, and I think his chin is solid enough to deal with Struve’s power, as well. The real question is whether or not Struve will be able to get this fight to the ground. Miocic is not known for his grappling prowess and has never faced anyone near Struve’s level in terms of submissions, so if Struve can take this fight down he should be more than capable of submitting Miocic. In the end, I think Miocic will weather Struve’s striking fairly well, land some big shots of his own, but find himself taken down and submitted eventually. Struve by submission.

Prediction:  Stefan Struve by second round rear naked choke.

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