Tag: UFC betting

UFC Light Heavyweight Bout:  Lyoto Machida vs. Ryan Bader

Odds:  (-335 Machida / +255 Bader )

Betting Pick:  Machida

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In the semi-main event, former Light Heavyweight champion Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida will square off against heavy-handed wrestler Ryan “Darth”Bader in a very interesting style clash. Machida has dropped three of his last four fights, with the sole in that stretch being his legendary front kick KO of former Light Heavyweight Champion and Hall of Famer Randy Couture. Still, his counter punching style, pinpoint accuracy, and masterful footwork make him a difficult opponent to deal with. Bader, 2-2 in his last four fights, has seen his momentum derailed a bit recently but is coming off two very impressive wins. This is going to come down to whether or not Bader has enough wrestling to put Machida on his back and hold him there, because although he is a powerful puncher, I don’t like his chances of successfully chasing Machida around the Octagon without getting pasted by counter punches and tired out.

Ryan “Darth” Bader looked like one of the Light Heavyweight Division’s most promising up and comers, but was eclipsed by current champion Jon “Bones” Jones and suffered a huge setback against Tito Ortiz immediately after. He has rebounded nicely with two good wins in a row, but against Machida he is going to have to fight very carefully. One of Bader’s best tools is his ability to complement his wrestling with big power punches, but if he gets wild against Machida or settles into a stand up fight too comfortably, he is going to pay the price. Machida is notorious for letting guys chase him, wear themselves out, and softening them up with lightning-fast counter punches before pouncing for the win, and Bader is going to have to pick his spots carefully to avoid falling into that trap. Machida is definitely able to betaken down, and if anyone can do it is Bader, but he is going to have to work hard to avoid letting Machida back up and especially to prevent leaving his neck open for a guillotine, which he has succumbed to twice in his last four fights.

Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida is, as you may have heard Joe Rogan mention a time or two, an extremely elusive and dangerous striker with a unique counter punching style. His Footwork is beautiful, and he is better than anyone in the sport at landing meaningful strikes while moving fully backward. Machida’s biggest problem is that he is too comfortable fighting a defensive fight, and if his opponents won’t commit to chasing him around, his fights tend to devolve into cat and mouse games without much significant action. Against Bader there is no question that Machida will be the more accomplished striker, so he just has to fight carefully to avoid getting taken down and controlled. If this fight plays out on the feet, Machida’sspeed advantage and superior accuracy will be more than enough to keep Bader under control.

This is a somewhat tough fight to call. Bader has knockout power but is unlikely to catch Machida on the feet, and Machida has knockout power but prefers to backpedal and fight for points usually. On the one hand, allowing Bader to hang around could be courting disaster, but on the other Machida’s hard-to-catch style could well tire Bader out and neutralize his wrestling. If Bader can secure take downs early and set the tone, he will be in a great position to win here, but I think that Machida is ultimately too slippery, and will outpoint Bader handily on the feet for a unanimous decision victory.

Prediction:  Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida by Unanimous Decision.

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UFC Interim Bantamweight Title Bout:  Urijah Faber vs. Renan Barao

Odds:  (+155 Faber / -190 Barao )

Betting Pick:  Barao

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In the main event of the evening, former WEC Featherweight champion Urijah “The California Kid” Faber will square off against prolific jiu-jitsu ace Renan “Barao” Pegado in a Bantamweight matchup. Faber has fought the best in the world in two weight classes for years now, but Barao is a phenomenal grappler currently riding an insane 28 fight win streak, which makes this a very compelling bout with almost guaranteed title shot implications. With Faber having already suffered a loss to Bantamweight champion Dominick Cruz, a win here is absolutely necessary if he wants to remain relevant in the title picture, while a 29th straight win for Barao will almost certainly guarantee him a shot at the belt.

Urijah Faber was one of the WEC’s biggest stars and one of the top Featherweights in the world for years, but after two losses to Mike Thomas Brown and a defeat at the hands of reigning Featherweight king Jose Aldo, he made the drop to a more natural 135 pounds. He gave Cruz a good fight in his losing effort, and in his last fight rebounded nicely with a submission win over former Bantamweight champion Brian Bowles. One thing that makes Faber so dangerous is his offensive versatility. He is a solid wrestler with good, powerful striking and very dangerous submissions. Against Barao, though, I think he would be very unwise to try and initiate a ground fight, because as good as Faber’s submissions are, Barao’s are substantially better. Instead, Faber should concentrate on using his wrestling defensively and trying to force a standup war, where I think he has the edge in power, accuracy, and hand speed. He just has to be careful not to get too reckless and let Barao capitalize for easy takedowns, because he is going to be in some trouble if he has to work off his back underneath the superior grappler.

Renan “Barao” Pegado is one of the most exciting and prolific grapplers in the UFC at any weight, and he is riding a nearly-unprecedented 28 fight winning streak. Since debuting in the WEC, he has steadily moved up in competition and has easily handled all of his opponents so far. There is no question, though, that Faber is in every way the toughest fighter he has ever had to face. Not only has Pegado never faced anyone who can press the issue on the feet like Faber can, he has never faced anyone as well-prepared to test his strengths on the ground. In order to dictate his kind of fight, Barao  is going to have to find a way to crack Faber’s wrestling while also avoiding getting caught by big strikes, which is much easier said than done.

This is a very tough fight to call. Barao is, without a doubt, the best pure grappler in the Bantamweight division, but Faber is easily the more versatile fighter of the two. If Barao can secure takedowns, I really don’t like Faber’s chances of winning this fight having to fight off his back. If Faber can use his wrestling advantage defensively, though, I think he has all the tools to outstrike Barao with relative ease. In the end, I think the slight edge has to go to Pegado. Faber is a good standup fighter, but his biggest strength is the way that he mixes his offense up and throws punches to set up takedowns. I think eventually Faber will either get too reckless on the feet and get taken down, or that he will shoot for a takedown himself and wind up getting swept. Either way, I see Faber making a mistake in the later rounds and Barao capitalizing on it. Pegado by submission.

Prediction: Renan Barao by fourth round Sub.

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UFC Middleweight bout:  Hector Lombard vs. Tim Boetsch

Odds: (-360 Lombard / +270 Boetsch )

Betting Pick:  Lombard

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In the semi-main event of the evening, Hector Lombard, long considered the top Middleweight in the world outside of the UFC, makes his Octagon debut against tough veteran Tim “The Barbarian” Boetsch. Lombard, a former Olympic judoka and Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, is currently riding a 24 fight unbeaten streak and has not lost since dropping a decision to Gegard Mousasi all the way back in 2006. Many expect that Lombard will be fast-tracked toward a shot at Anderson Silva’s Middleweight title assuming he can get past Boetsch, but Boetsch is a well-rounded and ultra-tough veteran who showed in his last fight against Yushin Okami that you can never count him out of a fight. If Lombard wants to cement himself as a major player in the Middleweight title scene he is going to have to keep the pressure on start to finish and not give Boetsch a chance to stage another come from behind shocker.

Tim “The Barbarian” Boetsch is a very tough and versatile veteran who, in his last outing, mounted one of the more memorable comebacks in recent memory when he put away Yushin Okami near the end of their fight after being dominated for 2 and a half rounds. Boetsch has a great chin, very dangerous striking, and an underrated ground game. He isn’t among the best in the world at anything, but he doesn’t have many glaring holes, he puts it all together will, and his persistence and toughness allow him to hang in fights long enough to find his opening and pounce. Boetsch represents a good test for Lombard’s title readiness in that he can hang with anyone anywhere a fight goes and is dangerous enough offensively to expose any weaknesses Lombard might be concealing.

Hector Lombard, who holds black belts in both judo and Brazilian jiu-jitsu and once represented Cuba on the Olympic judo team, is surprisingly more effective in the standup than he is on the ground. He does have very good takedowns and a punishing top control game, but on the feet he is a bulldozer with a huge amount of power in both hands. What makes Lombard so dangerous is that he can push forward constantly throwing huge punches and then just close up and clinch to control his opponents. He is hard to take down, much harder to keep down, and is a match in punching power for any Middleweight on the planet. Against Boetsch he will be the more powerful and technical fighter pretty much anywhere it goes, and his best strategy will be to keep the pressure on and not let Boetsch get settled in.

This is, in my opinion, a one-sided matchup. Not to take anything away from Boetsch, who is extremely tough and has a lot of tools, but Lombard is just on a different level. I don’t think Boetsch has a way to get Lombard down, and I don’t think he has a way to survive the howitzers Lombard throws on the feet. I think Lombard will fight aggressively and control the action early before overwhelming Boetsch with strikes for the T/KO.

Prediction: Hector Lombard by first round T/KO.

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Current UFC 150 Odds – On Saturday, August 11, 2012, UFC 150 will hit the airwaves live from the Pepsi Center in the Mile High City of Denver, Colorado. Headlining the event is a Lightweight title rematch pitting newly-crowned champion Benson “Smooth” Henderson against the man he defeated for the belt, Frankie “The Answer” Edgar. In their last meeting, Henderson outstruck Edgar and controlled the action for the vast majority of the fight en route to a clear-cut unanimous decision. Edgar, notoriously undersized at 155 pounds, has proven time and again that he is a resilient fighter who compensates for his lack of size with great striking, wrestling, and footwork, but Henderson has all of those traits and superior size and athleticism to go along with them. If Edgar wants to recapture his title he is going to need the best performance of his career and to fight a totally mistake-free fight.

Main Card:

Ben Henderson vs. Frankie Edgar

Bovada.Iv Odds

• Henderson  (-165)
  
• Edgar          (+135)
  

Betonline.com Odds

• Henderson  (-160)
  
• Edgar          (+140)
  

TopBet.com Odds

• Henderson
• Edgar

Donald Cerrone vs. Melvin Guillard

Bovada.Iv Odds

• Cerrone
• Guillard

Betonline.com Odds

• Cerrone
• Guillard

Jake Shields vs. Ed Herman

Bovada.Iv Odds

• Shields    (-175)
  
• Herman  (+145)
  

Betonline.com Odds

• Shields
• Herman

Yushin Okami vs. Rousimar Palhares

Bovada.Iv Odds

• Okami
• Palhares

Betonline.com Odds

• Okami
• Palhares

Chris Camozzi vs. Buddy Roberts

Bovada.Iv Odds

• Camozzi
• Roberts

Preliminary Card:

Jared Hamman vs. Michael Kuiper

Bovada.Iv Odds

• Hamman
• Kuiper

Nik Lentz vs. Eiji Mitsuoka

Bovada.Iv Odds

• Lentz
• Mitsuoka

Justin Lawrence vs. Max Holloway

Bovada.Iv Odds

• Lawrence
• Holloway

Dennis Bermudez vs. Tommy Hayden

Bovada.Iv Odds

• Bermudez
• Hayden

Erik Perez vs. Ken Stone

Bovada.Iv Odds

• Perez
• Stone

In the semi-main event, former Strikeforce champion Jake Shields will try to make it two wins in a row against punishing wrestler Ed “Short Fuse” Herman. Shields has had a very disappointing start to his UFC career after sky-high expectations, but an opponent like Herman who likes to fight mainly on the ground is a good chance for him to showcase his world-class grappling skills. The remaining two bouts are both in the Middleweight division, as Yushin “Thunder” Okami will square off against leglock expert Rousimar “Toquinho” Palhares and Chris Camozzi will challenge well-rounded newcomer Buddy Roberts.

Make sure to Check back with us closer to fight night as I will have updated UFC 150 Odds plus Fight Predictions.  And to add a little excitement to your fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bovada.Iv Odds.