Tag: UFC betting

UFC Flyweight bout:  Demetrious Johnson vs. Ian McCall

Odds:  (-155 Johnson /+125 McCall )

Betting Pick:  Johnson

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In the main event of the evening, Flyweights Ian “Uncle Creepy” McCall and Demetrious “Mighty Mouse” Johnson will meet in an immediate rematch of their Flyweight title tournament match, which ended in controversy.  The bout, which was very competitive and could have gone either way, was ruled a majority draw, but Johnson was erroneously announced as the winner in the post-fight decision.  Now, the two will meet again, hopefully to provide a more clear result and clarify the burgeoning Flyweight title picture.  Their first bout was entertaining and hotly contested, and the rematch promises to deliver another great main event.

Ian “Uncle Creepy” McCall, despite his rather unfortunate nickname, is clearly one of the world’s most dangerous Flyweights.  While he has only had one UFC fight, until recently, most of the top 125 pound action was occurring outside of the Octagon, and McCall has fought some of the top Flyweights and Bantamweights in the world, including a decision loss to current Bantamweight champion Dominick Cruz and an impressive win over former World #1 Flyweight Jussier da Silva. McCall is very versatile, with fast and technical striking and very effective submissions.  Like most Flyweights, he is very quick on his feet and has amazing cardio conditioning that allows him to keep up a breakneck pace from bell to bell.  In their first fight, McCall did a great job of preventing Johnson’s takedowns and securing takedowns of his own, but what kept him from securing the victory was his inability to maintain position on the ground.  He clearly has the tools to be a winner here, but if he wants to avoid another too-close-for-comfort decision, he is going to have to find a way to capitalize on his takedowns and not let Johnson sweep or escape every time.  He took some pretty big shots from Johnson last time, and so he is going to have to be wary of the standup, but if he can find a way to keep Johnson on his back after securing the takedown he will be in a great position to win this fight and challenge for the Flyweight title.

Demetrious “Mighty Mouse” Johnson had already cemented himself as one of the better Bantamweights in the world, despite his noticeable size disadvantage, when UFC decided to open up a Flyweight division.  125 pounds is a much more natural weight for Johnson, where he won’t have to rely on superior speed and technique to consistently deal with larger and stronger opponents.  Johnson is extremely versatile, with good striking, good wrestling, and very effective submissions, sweeps, and escapes.  Against McCall in their first fight, he landed a number of big shots that hurt McCall and did an excellent job of getting out of bad positions on the ground, but he had a lot of trouble keeping McCall from taking him down in the first place.  It’s clear that he has the tools to stand and trade with McCall, and that he is good enough on the ground to get out of any real trouble, but if this fight is going to be as competitive as their last one, he simply cannot afford to give McCall those free points on the judges’ scorecards that he did last time.  His number one priority has to be takedown defense, because even if he isn’t in any danger of being finished, every single time his back touches the canvas he is letting McCall keep it close on the scorecards.

Their first fight was extremely close, and I don’t see any reason to expect that this one will be any different.  These guys haven’t changed that much as fighters in three months, so this one is going to come down to which of them learned their lesson from the last fight the best.  Johnson had more significant offense, including a big punch in round 1 that rocked McCall, but he let McCall creep back into the fight with a steady stream of trips and takedowns.  In a few cases, Johnson baited his own trap by trying, and failing, to take McCall down and leaving himself open to getting clinched and tripped in the process.  He needs to learn from that, press his advantage on the feet, and try to do a better job of keeping this fight off the ground altogether.  In the end, though, I thought Johnson did enough to win the first fight, albeit barely, and I think he will replicate that performance.  Johnson takes the close decision nod in another very competitive fight.

Prediction:  Demetrious Johnson by Decision.

 To add  a little excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bovada.Iv Odds. Check out my review of Bodog here…

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UFC Welterweight bout:  Martin Kampmann vs. Jake Ellenberger

Odds:  (+175 Kampmann /-225 Ellenberger )

Betting Pick:  Ellenberger

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In the main event of the evening, Jake “The Juggernaut” Ellenberger and Martin “Hitman” Kampmann will do battle in the Welterweight division. Kampmann, who had some success at Middleweight before dropping down, is one of the division’s most versatile fighters, but Ellenberger’s bruising striking and powerful wrestling have propelled him to a six fight win streak, including a first round destruction of former Strikeforce champion Jake Shields, so Kampmann is going to need a great performance here if he wants to make it three wins in a row.

Martin Kampmann is one of the most versatile fighters in the Welterweight division. A skilled kickboxer, Kampmann also has serviceable wrestling and a much underrated submission game. Kampmann is a very aggressive fighter both standing and on the ground. He is a prolific finisher and a very tough fighter as well. The only two weaknesses in Kampmann’s game are his chin, which can be exploited, and the fact that he has trouble dealing with very physical wrestlers. Unfortunately, Ellenberger is a very physical wrestler with enough power in his hands to exploit Kampmann’s chin, so Kampmann is going to have to pick his shots and try to establish a good range where he can utilize his superior footwork and technique to move in and out without leaving himself in danger.

Jake “The Juggernaut” Ellenberger is one of the toughest veterans in the Welterweight division. He is a very solid wrestler with good takedowns, good clinch control, and devastating ground and pound. In addition, he has very heavy-handed boxing and is good at getting in close, controlling position, and bruising his opponents on the inside. Ellenberger has lost only once in the last 4 years, a razor-thin split decision against interim champion Carlos Condit. The only way to stop Ellenberger is to either beat him to the punch consistently while moving away or to try and put him on his back. His wrestling and ability to use the clinch make both of those much more difficult to execute than they sound, though.

I don’t think this is a very favorable matchup for Kampmann. Kampmann is the more technical of the two, but he has problems dealing with aggressive, physical fighters who can control position, take a punch, and throw back hard. Unfortunately that is exactly the kind of fighter he is faced with. I think Ellenberger will physically control Kampmann, score points on the inside and with takedowns, and earn the unanimous decision victory.

Prediction:  Jake Ellenberger by Unanimous Decision.

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UFC Heavyweight Title Fight:  Junior Dos Santos vs. Frank Mir

Odds:  (-500 Dos Santos / +350 Mir )

Betting Pick:  Dos Santos

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In the main event of the evening, newly-crowned UFC Heavyweight Champion Junior “Cigano” dos Santos will face a stern challenge in his first title defense as he faces off against former Heavyweight champ Frank Mir.  Dos Santos’ striking is superlative in every way.  His speed, technique, and power are all unmatched in the Heavyweight division, and no one he has faced has been able to withstand the punishment he can dole out with his hands.  Mir, though, is easily one of the Heavyweight division’s most versatile fighters, with dangerous punching power of his own and the most effective submission game in the division.  Dos Santos has never had to face an opponent with as many tools or as many ways to finish fights as Mir has, so this is a very tough test for him in his first attempt at defending his title. There is no doubt that, as dangerous as Mir’s heavy-handed punching can be, dos Santos will eat him alive if this fight plays out largely on the feet, but “Cigano” has yet to have his ground game sorely tested, and if Mir can find a way to get him on his back he is going to be in a world of trouble, which makes this a very compelling main event.

Frank Mir, the former UFC Heavyweight champion, has had one of the most interesting career arcs in the history of the sport.  He cemented himself as UFC’s premier Heavyweight with his potent ground game before seeing his career, and his life, nearly cut short by a brutal motorcycle accident.  Slowly but surely, though, he worked his way back up to the top of the ladder, and grew into a formidable striker while he was doing it.  Now, he is one of the UFC’s most dangerous Heavyweights, able to finish fights with his vastly improved boxing and his world-class submissions, which are dangerous from a whole host of positions.  The only notable hole in Mir’s game is his wrestling, which was never very good and got even less effective when he suffered his back and leg injuries.  On the ground, Mir is more than a match for anyone in the world, but he is not overly effective at forcing fights to the mat, and tends to be satisfied with standing and boxing with his opponents instead of forcing the issue.  Against dos Santos, that strategy would be reckless in the extreme, and Mir is going to have to find a way to get himself out of “Cigano’s” line of fire.

There is no question whatsoever that Junior dos Santos is the most prolific striker in the history of the UFC’s Heavyweight division. His punching is fast, pinpoint accurate, and utterly devastating in its power.  Since arriving in the UFC, he has completely demolished everyone in his path.  He has continually stepped up in competition, and he has handled those steps up easily.  Mir, though, represents a new sort of challenge for dos Santos.  The only professional loss dos Santos ever suffered was by submission, and his ground game has yet to be tested in his UFC career.  If he has to work off his back against Mir, he is going to find himself in a huge amount of trouble.  If his mentor, Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, couldn’t stop Mir from submitting him, I really don’t like dos Santos’ chances.

This is a very interesting matchup.  Mir, although he is known as a grappler, also has very powerful striking, and dos Santos trains with the Nogueira brothers, which means he almost certainly has more of a ground game than he has shown.  That said, there is no question to me that dos Santos will destroy Mir in a standup fight and Mir will make dos Santos tap if this fight plays out on the ground for any period of time.  The question, then, becomes whether or not Mir has what it takes to force dos Santos to his back before he gets pasted.  My best guess would be no.  If skilled wrestlers like Cain Velasquez and Roy Nelson couldn’t ground dos Santos, I don’t think Mir is going to be able to either.  Mir has shown a willingness to stand and trade with strikers, and usually he is good enough to hold his own, but dos Santos is on another level and it is only a matter of time before Mir gets caught and put to sleep.  Dos Santos by T/KO.

Prediction:  Junior Dos Santos by third round T/KO.

To add  a little excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bovad.Iv Odds. Check out my review of Bodog here…

Below you can use our Odds Calculator to check your potential winnings.