Tag: UFC betting

UFC Heavyweight bout:  Cain Velasquez vs. Antonio Silva

Odds:  (-400 Velasquez / +300 Silva )

Betting Pick:  Velasquez

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In the semi-main event, former UFC Heavyweight champion Cain Velasquez will look to rebound from his crushing loss to Junior dos Santos against former Strikeforce Heavyweight king Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva. While both of these guys are coming off disappoint losses, with Silva having dropped his last fight against Strikeforce GP winner Daniel Cormier, there is no doubt that they are both world class Heavyweights with dangerous skill sets.  Both of these guys are quite versatile, with dangerous striking power and solid ground games.  They are dissimilar, though, in that Silva relies on big shots, smothering ground control, and effective submissions while keeping a relatively plodding pace.  Velasquez, on the other hand, relies on superior speed and an aggressive pace, which his cardio conditioning allows him to keep up for as long as he needs to.  This is Silva’s first trip to the big show, and with more Strikeforce Heavyweights bound to be debuting soon, this is going to be a very crowded division at the top.  With that in mind, a win here is absolutely necessary for both guys if they want to maintain a spot in the division’s upper echelon.

Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva was one of Strikeforce’s premier Heavyweights for years, and he will now attempt to parlay that success into the UFC.  Silva is a very impressive physical specimen, with great height, reach, and bulk.  Technically he is just as impressive, with very heavy hands to go along with a smothering wrestling and top control game.  His boxing technique is not overly fast, but it is technically sound and his punches pack a wallop.  In addition, Silva is a notoriously tough fighter who has fought good competition and only been finished twice as a professional.  His ability to rearrange opponents’ facial features with punches, take them down effectively, and wear them out with top control and thudding ground and pound make him an extremely tough nut to crack.  The only real holes in his game are his chin, which can be exploited by very powerful strikers capable of preventing takedowns and beating him to the punch, and his relative heaviness on his feet, which makes him slightly immobile.  Against Velasquez, who is brutally fast and a very accomplished wrestler, both of those could be quite problematic for him.

Cain Velasquez, who just relinquished his UFC Heavyweight title to Junior dos Santos, is nevertheless one of UFC’s most dynamic and explosive Heavyweights.  A former NCAA All-American, Velasquez is clearly an accomplished wrestler, but he also has devastating striking to back up his grappling prowess.  As good a wrestler as he is, Velasquez tends to prefer to rely on his standup, which is extremely formidable.  He has arguably the fastest hands in the Heavyweight division and is a supremely conditioned athlete, which allows him to maintain a breakneck pace from bell to bell.  Junior dos Santos showed in their last fight that his chin can be exploited, and Silva does have powerful punching, but one loss to the best Heavyweight striker in the world is not enough for me to say that he has a glass jaw. Still, Silva has knockout power in both hands and is adept at controlling opponents from top position, so Velasquez is going to have to be careful not to give anything away here if he wants to avoid a second consecutive loss.

Stylistically, I think this matchup heavily favors Velasquez.  Both of these guys have knockout power, good wrestling, and effective ground control, but I think Cain’s vastly superior hand speed is going to be the difference-maker here.  Their wrestling should cancel each other out, and both guys are generally content to stand and trade.  I think Cain will routinely beat Silva to the punch, though, and when you have two guys who can both be knocked out and can both throw knockout punches, that will make all the difference.  Velasquez by T/KO in the later rounds.

Prediction:  Cain Velasquez by third round T/KO.

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UFC Heavyweight bout:  Roy Nelson vs. Dave Herman

Odds:  (-225 Nelson / +175 Herman )

Betting Pick:  Nelson

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In one of the many Heavyweight showdowns being featured, heavy-handed veteran Dave Herman will meet Ultimate Fighter winner Roy “Big Country” Nelson in a matchup of two guys with serious striking prowess.  Both of these guys have heavy hands and a willingness to let them go, but Herman is going to have to deal with Nelson’s wrestling, top control, and submission game as well.  Herman is the scarier of the two in terms of raw punching power, but Nelson has power of his own and is deceptively athletic considering his keg-like frame.

Dave Herman, a veteran of Sengoku and EliteXC, is a very heavy-handed and dangerous striker who has been around the sport for a long time. While he does have some submissions, he is primarily a striker who tends not to use wrestling or grappling expect as a last resort. Against Nelson, a legitimate submission fighter, he would be foolish in the extreme to try and fight on the ground, because if he gets a takedown stuffed or gets swept, he is going to get destroy by Nelson’s top control game.  If he can keep this fight standing, though, he always has a good chance to knock out anyone he is fighting, because his punching is seriously formidable.

Roy “Big Country” Nelson does not look like a prototypical fighter, but there is no way to deny his effectiveness.  He may not be one of the best in the world at any one thing, but he has powerful boxing, solid takedowns, good top control, powerful ground and pound, and effective submissions.  He is also extremely tough, having fought very good competition for years and only being finished once.  The biggest problem with Nelson’s game tends to be his gameplanning.  Anyone who has watched him for any period of time will tell you that his best work comes when he forces a ground fight and uses his bulk to control opponents from top position, but he tends to get too involved in standing and trading shots with his opponents, which has not worked out very well for him recently.

This is a tough fight to call, only because Nelson is so unpredictable.  If he fights smart and works for takedowns, he has more than enough tools to control Herman utterly on the ground.  If he obliges Herman in a standup fight, though, all bets are off.  Herman has good striking technique and a ton of power, so if Nelson tries to box him he is going to be inviting trouble.  In the end, though, I think the safe bet is Nelson and his superior versatility.  Herman, as always, has a puncher’s chance, but I think Nelson just has too many ways to win this fight, and should be able to control the action for a unanimous decision victory.

Prediction:  Roy Nelson by Unanimous Decision.

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UFC Heavyweight bout:  Stefan Struve vs. Lavar Johnson

Odds:  (-130 Struve /+100 Johnson )

Betting Pick:  Struve

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In a featured Heavyweight bout, “Big” Lavar Johnson, coming off the biggest win of his career against Pat Barry, will look to keep the momentum going against rangy Dutchman Stefan “Skyscraper” Struve. Johnson showed against Barry that he not only has spectacular striking and power, he is an extremely resilient fighter who is capable of surviving a tough spot. Struve, though, represents a tough challenge in that he not only has great striking technique; he is one of the Heavyweight division’s most prolific submission grapplers. Johnson was in big trouble in his last fight when Barry tripped him with ease and came close to securing a Kimura. If he finds himself on his back against Struve trying to fight off submission attempts, he is unlikely to have as much success this time.

“Big” Lavar Johnson is a prototypical Heavyweight bruiser. He has a huge, bulky frame and every punch he throws has malicious intent. Johnson has devastating punching power and when he smells blood, he goes in for the kill. There isn’t a lot else to his game, though. He doesn’t have much in the way of wrestling, and his grappling prowess is limited to put it mildly. Granted, he did escape Barry’s Kimura attempt, but the fact that he even allowed Pat Barry to take him down and get that close to submitting him says wonders. Luckily for Johnson, Struve’s chin is notoriously spotty, and Johnson has more than enough power to put him to sleep if he can land big power punches. It is vitally important for Johnson to keep this fight standing, though, because it will likely only take one takedown for Struve to finish this fight on the ground.

Stefan “Skyscraper” Struve is an extremely versatile and dangerous fighter offensively, but he is also something of a glass cannon. Struve’s height and reach give him unique advantages against most of his opponents, and he uses them well to keep opponents on the end of his accurate, fast-handed punching. In addition, Struve has a spectacular submission game and, unlike a lot of other Heavyweight grapplers, is very confident working off his back. The biggest problem Struve has is that his chin is notoriously weak. Against Johnson, he would be really unwise to stand and trade, because Johnson has more than enough power to put him down with a single haymaker. On the ground, though, Struve has more than enough to finish Johnson with relative ease. If he fights smart and tries to take Johnson down, he will be in a great position to pull off another win.

This is an interesting matchup in that both fighters are uniquely positioned to capitalize on each other’s weaknesses. Struve’s biggest problem is his chin, and Johnson has enough power to exploit that weakness. Johnson, for his part, struggles any time a fight is not a pure boxing match, and Struve’s submissions will likely prove way too much for him to handle if this fight goes to the ground. The question, then, becomes whether or not Struve can take this fight to the ground. In his last fight, Johnson found himself caught fairly easily by a trip takedown from Barry, and Struve’s long limbs and lanky frame are perfectly equipped to set that up. If Struve can use his reach and frame to clinch Johnson up and trip him to the ground, I don’t think he will have much trouble locking up an arm or taking Johnson’s back and securing a choke. Ultimately, as tough as Johnson is, I think his lack of versatility will be his undoing. I expect Struve to stay out of the way of his punches, use the clinch to neutralize him, and take him down. From there, the submission is academic.

Prediction:  Stefan Struve by first round rear naked choke.

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Strikeforce Heavyweight Title Fight:  Josh Barnett vs. Daniel Cormier

Odds:  (-125 Barnett / -105 Cormier )

Betting Pick:  Barnett

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In the main event of the evening, former UFC Heavyweight champion Josh Barnett will square off against undefeated wrestling ace in Daniel Cormier in a big Heavyweight showdown. At this point, the closure of Strikeforce’s Heavyweight division seems inevitable, and a win here would go a long way toward establishing momentum heading into the UFC.
Barnett in particular really needs this win, because his histories of failed steroids test and well-publicized acrimony with UFC President Dana White probably aren’t working in his favor. Out of the ring issues aside, Barnett is one of the most versatile and dangerous Heavyweights in the world, and he is more than capable of testing Cormier in ways the young wrestler has not had to cope with yet.

Josh Barnett is, without a doubt, one of the most versatile Heavyweights in the world. Very few fighters, especially at Heavyweight, have his mix of deadly punching power, wrestling acumen, and fight-ending submissions. Barnett earned himself a UFC Heavyweight Title by destroying Randy Couture, but found his UFC career cut short by a failed steroid test. Later, when scheduled to face Fedor Emelianenko on an Affliction card, Barnett was tagged for steroids again, forcing the cancellation of the show. If Barnett wants to make a last push at proving that he belongs in the Heavyweight Top 10 he is going to need to come into this fight clean and with his takedown defense on point, because a loss here or another failed test would likely spell the end of his career. Barnett has the tools to beat Cormier standing on the ground if he can avoid getting controlled by Cormier’s wrestling, so as long as he fights mistake-free another big win is not unlikely.

Daniel Cormier is definitely one of the Heavyweight division’s most exciting young prospects. Undefeated as a professional, Cormier has used his illustrious amateur wrestling background and some heavy-handed boxing to steadily climb up the Heavyweight ranks. So far, Cormier has handled every step up in competition masterfully, culminating in a drubbing of Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva in his last fight. Cormier has shown that he can hurt guys with his hands, but, more importantly, he has proven that he has the wrestling to put anyone he faces on their back. Silva, like Barnett, is an extremely accomplished submission grappler, and Cormier had no trouble whatsoever controlling him on the ground. Against Barnett he is going to have to couple that submission defense with smart standup, because no one he has had to face is as capable of ending fights no matter where they go.

This is a tough fight to call. Cormier has looked unstoppable so far, blasting his opponents with big power punches and planting them on the ground at will. That said, he hasn’t faced a striker or a grappler as proficient as Barnett, much less a guy who is that good at both. As good as Barnett is on the ground, though, I don’t like his chances if he has to work off his back underneath Cormier. If Barnett is going to win, he is going to have to do it with his superior striking skills, using his grappling to keep Cormier at bay so he can land punches. Ultimately, though, I think Barnett is just too experienced and too versatile for Cormier to deal with. Cormier has never faced anyone who could take a punch like Barnett, much less throw back as effectively as Barnett can. I don’t see Cormier being able to impose his will on Barnett, and as the fight goes on and Cormier’s energy begins to lag, I think Barnett will capitalize and ultimately catch him for the submission victory.

Prediction:  Josh Barnett by second round rear naked choke.

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Strikeforce Lightweight Title Fight:  Gilbert Melendez vs. Josh Thomson

Odds:  (-600 Melendez / +400 Thomson )

Betting Pick:  Melendez

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In the semi-main event, Strikeforce Lightweight champion Gilbert “El Nino” Melendez will look to defend his belt against long-time rival Josh Thompson in a deciding rubber match.  These two have met twice before, with Thomson winning the first meeting and Melendez avenging the loss in their last bout.  Fight fans have been clamoring to see Melendez prove his worth against UFC’s packed Lightweight division for well over a year now, and Thomson seems like the last fight left for him in Strikeforce.  A win here will probably result in Melendez getting a shot at unifying the Strikeforce and UFC titles, but you know that Thomson would love to play spoiler, and he’s already proven that he has the tools necessary to upset Melendez.  These guys are both top 10 level Lightweights and there is a lot riding on this fight, so it should be very entertaining.

Josh “The Punk” Thomson is easily one of the most effective and stifling Lightweight grapplers in the world.  Thomson is experienced, well-rounded, and notoriously tough, having only been finished once in his professional career, all the way back in 2004 by Yves Edwards. Thomson’s standup is not his best attribute, but he has solid technique and decent punching power.  There is no question that Thomson’s best work is done on the ground.  He is a very effective wrestler with dominating top control and very good submissions as well.  Unfortunately, Melendez has grown into one of the division’s premier grapplers, a lesson Thomson learned the hard way in their last meeting, where he was unable to force Melendez to the ground and outboxed fairly easily.  If he wants to avoid losing the best of three series, Thomson is going to have to find a way to mix his takedowns in with his striking much more effectively, so that he can try to control Melendez from on top.  If he has to box with Melendez for extended periods or work off his back, he is in for a very long night.

Gilbert “El Nino” Melendez has firmly cemented himself as the world’s best Lightweight outside of the UFC.  Since losing his first fight against Thomson in 2008, Melendez has rattled off six straight wins and avenged both of his career losses.  What makes Melendez so scary is his ability to dominate opponents wherever a fight goes.  He is a supremely talented grappler, although he rarely wins by submission. He is very skilled at keeping wrestlers from taking him down by using his grappling defensively and just as good at forcing strikers onto their backs where he is out of danger.  There are no real holes in Melendez’s game, which means that he can force fights wherever his opponents are least comfortable.  Against Thomson, that will definitely mean he will try to keep this fight standing, where he will enjoy a sizable advantage in both technique and punching power.

In their last fight, Melendez completely nullified Thomson’s grappling and beat him up in the striking exchanges, and I don’t see any reason to expect this fight to go differently.  Thomson is still a top Lightweight capable of beating many of the top fighters in the division, but Melendez is the worst possible style matchup for him. “El Nino” can take away Thomson’s best tool, outpoint him on the feet easily, and if worse comes to worse he is capable of hanging with or even beating Thomson on the ground.  I don’t think anything about this fight is really in Thomson’s favor, and I expect Melendez to grind out a one-sided unanimous decision victory to retain his title.

Prediction:  Gilbert Melendez by Unanimous Decision.

To add  a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bovad.Iv Odds. Check out my review of Bodog here…

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