Tag: UFC betting

UFC Welterweight bout:  Josh Koscheck vs. Johny Hendricks

Odds:  (+100 Koscheck / -130 Hendricks )

Betting Pick:  Koscheck

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In the semi-main event, long-time top contender Josh “Kos” Koscheck will look to halt the momentum of surging young star Johny Hendricks. According to UFC president Dana White, a win for Hendricks means a shot at the UFC Welterweight Title, but getting through a fighter like Koscheck is a long way from a foregone conclusion.  Hendricks proved against Koscheck’s teammate Jon Fitch that he has the kind of punching power to floor anyone in the division, but Koscheck is one of the most effective wrestlers in the sport and has formidable punching power of his own, so this is going to be a really tough test for Hendricks.  It seems unlikely that he will catch Koscheck as early in the fight as he caught Fitch, so he will have to prove that he can handle an aggressive wrestler for an extended period of time, something that remains in question following his sole career loss to Rick “Horror” Story.

Josh Koscheck, after appearing in the finals of the inaugural season of The Ultimate Fighter, has carved out a niche for himself as one of UFC’s most dangerous Welterweights.  Although he has fallen short in his two shots at Georges St. Pierre’s title, he has firmly entrenched himself at the top of the division, and any road to the title is probably going to have to go through him.  From the get go, Koscheck was a dominant wrestler with a smothering top game, but he has steadily grown as a kickboxer over the course of his UFC career and is now regarded as a dangerous striker as well.  He has good punches and kicks and a very solid chin, but he is still most effective when he works for double legs, gets on top of his opponents, and wears them down while totally nullifying their offense.  Against Hendricks, who has dynamite in his hands, Koscheck would be well served to stick to his bread and butter instead of trying to show off his striking too much.  It’s not that Koscheck isn’t capable of standing with Hendricks, because he very well might be, but his wrestling is an a whole different level and he would be foolish not to press such a sizable advantage.

Johny Hendricks is one of the Welterweight division’s fastest-rising stars, but in many ways Koscheck represents a sizable step up in competition for him.  Hendricks looked phenomenal in dropping Jon Fitch in a mere 12 seconds, but you can’t count on him winning many fights against top competitors that fast, and Koscheck is going to be able to test his readiness to compete at the highest level in a variety of ways.  The only loss of Hendricks’ career came at the hands of Rick Story, who was able to use his wrestling to keep Hendricks from teeing off with his powerful punching.  When it comes to pure wrestling, anything Story can do, Koscheck can do better, so Hendricks is going to have to show a very complete game if he wants to avoid getting planted on his back repeatedly and having his best weapons taken away from him.  Even on the feet, Koscheck has more than enough power to end a fight, so while Hendricks has a distinct advantage in that area he is still going to have to fight smart and not go into headhunter mode if he wants to avoid getting caught himself.

This is going to be a great test of just how ready Hendricks is for main event level fights.  There is no question that Hendricks has enough power in his hands to finish anyone foolish enough to let him start landing power punches, but Koscheck has a solid chin and world class wrestling which are going to give Hendricks a lot of problems. It would be wrong to call his win over Fitch a fluke, because he has proven time and again that he has fight ending punching power and great boxing technique, but the speed with which he floored Fitch is not something he can count on happening often.  It seems to be a given that Koscheck is going to give Hendricks the toughest test of his relatively young career, and I’m just not sure that he is going to be able to handle the pressure, both literally and figuratively. Hendricks has never had to fight with this much at stake before, and he has never faced an opponent besides Fitch with the toolset to completely neutralize him if things start to go poorly.  I think Hendricks is going to wilt under the pressure of Koscheck’s constant, effective takedowns, and find it difficult to really work his game much.  I don’t see Koscheck finishing this on the ground, but he should be able to take Hendricks down, neutralize his offense, and control pace and position well enough to earn the unanimous decision win.

Prediction:  Josh Koscheck by Unanimous Decision.

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UFC Middleweight bout:  Rousimar Palhares vs. Alan Belcher

Odds:  (-285 Palhares /+225 Belcher )

Fight Pick:  Palhares

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In a featured Middleweight matchup, Brazilian leg lock phenom Rousimar “Toquinho” Palhares will square off against Alan “The Talent” Belcher, who is a jiu-jitsu wizard in his own right.  Both of these guys are world-class grapplers with some of the best submissions in the Middleweight division, but Belcher is probably the better-rounded of the two while Palhares’ leglocks and heelhooks are more devastating than anything Belcher has in his tool belt.  If this fight goes to the ground, both guys have enough jiu-jitsu to finish, but Palhares is probably more effective.  That said, if Belcher can control when and how the fight plays out, he can likely punish Palhares badly on the feet and he is going to be hard to submit if he can control top position.  This is a very interesting matchup that could well have title shot implications in the Middleweight division, which is currently wide open.

Alan Belcher is one of the Middleweight division’s most versatile fighters.  Belcher has very solid wrestling, punishing boxing, and extremely effective submissions from a variety of positions.  He is a long-time veteran who has fought some very good opponents, and is a difficult guy to finish, having only been stopped 3 times in 23 professional fights.  What makes Belcher so dangerous is his ability to not only compete, but finish fights, in pretty much any position. Against Palhares, he is going to have to be extremely careful if the fight goes to the ground, because “Toquinho” has shown time and again that he is the sport’s foremost leg lock expert.  That is not to say that Belcher can’t win this fight on the ground, because his jiu-jitsu is good enough that he can catch anyone on any given night, but getting reckless in the grappling exchanges against Palhares could well spell doom for him.  Luckily for Belcher, he will enjoy a sizable advantage in punching power and technique, so if he can keep Palhares from forcing takedowns he will be in a great position to control the action and win the fight.

Rousimar Palhares is one of the UFC’s most intriguing young Middleweights.  “Toquinho” is a jiu-jitsu ace with amazing submissions from every conceivable position, but his leg locks, ankle locks, and heel hooks are definitely his bread and butter.  No one in the sport’s history has ever been as proficient at attacking their opponents’ legs as Palhares, and if he gets a hold of you, the best case scenario is a loss and the worst case scenario is a trip to the hospital.  Palhares does have a good all-around game, but against Belcher he is going to be at a serious disadvantage in the striking department.  There is no question that Palhares is going to try to get this fight to the ground and start attacking Belcher with submissions as early as he possibly can.  Belcher’s jiu-jitsu is extremely formidable as well, but if Palhares can keep this fight on the ground for long stretches of time it is going to be hard for Belcher or anyone he fights to hold him off.

As good a fighter as Belcher is, I think the edge here has to go to Palhares.  Belcher is undeniably the more versatile of the two, but he likes to take fights to the ground and work submissions himself, and I don’t think that is a winning strategy against someone as accomplished as Palhares.  Either way it happens, I see this fight being played out largely on the ground, and I don’t see a way for Belcher to survive against Palhares’ world-class submission game.  This is going to be a very exciting and competitive fight, but I think ultimately Palhares will find a mistake to capitalize on and take the submission victory.

Prediction:  Rousimar Palhares by third round sub.

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UFC Heavyweight bout: Pat Barry vs. Lavar Johnson

Odds: (-200 Barry /+160 Johnson)

Betting Pick:  Johnson

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In a featured Heavyweight matchup, heavy hitters Lavar Johnson and Pat Barry will look to assert their dominance in the striking game.  Both of these guys like to stand and bang, and both have serious fight-ending power in their fists.  These guys are coming to stand and trade, without a doubt, and when two guys as big, strong, and powerful this let the leather fly, fireworks are pretty much guaranteed. This is not the fight you want to get up during the middle of to go grab a soda, because it could be ever at any second.

“Big” Lavar Johnson is an extremely dangerous, albeit one-dimensional, striker.  Every time he steps into the Octagon, he comes to let his hands go and if he can’t impose his will on the feet, he is probably going to lose.  The biggest hole in his game is his utter lack of anything resembling grappling skills, but luckily he is fighting Pat Barry, who is just as inept on the ground as he is.  Johnson has overwhelming punching power and a very solid chin, which makes him aterror to stand and bang with.

Pat Barry, like Johnson, is a one-dimensional striker who is very effective doing the one thing he does well.  He always has the same game plan, which is to stand in front of his opponent and wing haymakers at them until someone is unconscious.  Like Johnson, every punch Barry throws has fight-ending potential and his chin is very durable.  The one issue Barry has in an increasingly oversized Heavyweight division is a lack of height and reach, which forces him to get dangerously close to his opponents to land shots.

In all likelihood, this will be a pretty quick fight.  Both of these guys are more than willing to throw caution to the wind and let their hands go with ill intent.  This is one of those fights that is likely to come down to which guy can land first, and I think against a rangy Heavyweight like Johnson, Barry is going to have trouble getting his boxing game going.  Johnson’s height and reach advantage, I think, will be the difference maker in a very close fight on paper.  I think Johnson will catch Barry trying to close the gap and put him down. Johnson by T/KO.

Prediction:  Lavar Johnson by second round T/KO.

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UFC Light Heavyweight Title bout:  Jon Jones vs. Rashad Evans

Odds:  (-450 Jones /+325 Evans )

Betting Pick:  Jones

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In the main event of the evening, UFC Light Heavyweight champion Jon “Bones” Jones will defend his title against former champion “Suga” Rashad Evans. These two are former friends and training partners, but their relationship has soured and now there is legitimate bad blood between them. Their personal animosity towards each other, coupled with the fact that they are two of the most dynamic and athletic fighters in the Light Heavyweight division, is going to make this a fight to remember. Jones has looked utterly dominant in rising to the top of the division, with his only loss being a disqualification against Matt Hamill in a fight he dominated. Every times Jones has been forced to step up in competition, he has not only handled it well, he has made his opponents look amateurish for the most part. If anyone can solve Jones’ puzzle, though, it is Evans, who knows what he is capable of, has stunning knockout power, and has proven adept at using his wrestling and quickness to neutralize larger, stronger opponents.

Rashad Evans, a former UFC Light Heavyweight titlist, has had one of the most successful UFC careers in recent memory. Only once has he been defeated as a professional, when Lyoto Machida knocked him out to capture his title belt. Evans has been in line for another title shot for well over a year now, but injuries and poor timing have kept him from getting it until now. What makes Rashad so dangerous are his speed, his footwork, his punching power, and his wrestling. He is not the best boxer in the world from a technical standpoint, but his ability to move laterally and keep his opponent guessing while setting up fight-ending haymakers makes him very dangerous to strike against. His best attribute, though, is his wrestling. He has great double-legs and very effective top control when fights go to the ground. Just as importantly, he is good at getting inside against bigger guys and pushing them into the cage to control them. A great example is his fight against Rampage, where Rashad continually punished Jackson up against the fence despite a significant strength and size disadvantage. If Rashad can frustrate Jones, who is used to imposing his will on his opponents in no uncertain terms, and tire him out while trying to set up big power punches, he could be in a great position to regain his title.

Jon Jones experienced what is, without a doubt, the most meteoric rise in Mixed Martial Arts history. Riding an essentially undefeated record all the way to the UFC Light Heavyweight Title, Jones has continually stepped up in competition and, without fail, destroyed his opponents with seeming ease. A huge part of what makes Jones so effective is his reach. No one in the division can even hope to match it, and in striking exchanges he can punish his opponents without any real fear of being hit back. His boxing is still a work in progress, technically, but he throws really hard punches from really far away, and that is hard to deal with. His wrestling is also spectacular, although not as technical as Rashad’s, but he makes up for it in speed, explosiveness, and raw physical power. Scariest of all, he has the ability to destroy guys with ground and pound or submit them if fights go to the ground. So far, Jones has not showed any real weaknesses whatsoever, except in terms of his technical boxing. Evans is not the kind of opponent to make him pay for that, but if his defense is poor Evans can definitely make him pay with huge power punches. Jones is going to enter this fight with a lot of physical advantages, and if he chooses to use them wisely and gameplan around them rather than simply depending on them, he will probably leave withhis belt.

Jon Jones is the champion for a reason. He is a peerless athlete as far as UFC fighters go, he has unique physical advantages over the rest of the division, and he is very dangerous in every range of fighting. That said, the odds on this fight are completely ridiculous. I don’t care how dominant Jones has looked, there is not a valid reason ever to bet on a fighter at -550 against a former UFC champion with one loss. The likelihood is clearly that Jones will be able to win this fight one way or the other, but at -550 that is absurd for betting purposes. Rashad, on the other hand, is a really attractive option here at +400. This is a guy who lost one fight ever, to a very tough opponent, and has world class wrestling and fight ending power. On top of that, he is fighting his former training partner, and while Jones is surely a different fighter nowthan he was then, Rashad is at least going to be familiar with his physical capabilities, his tendencies, and his preferences. This might be the only chance you ever get to bet on someone as good as Rashad Evans at +400, and it seems pointless not to take it. Jones will probably win this one on the judges’ cards, but Evans at +400 is a must-bet in my opinion.

Prediction:  Jon Jones by Unanimous Decision.

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UFC Featherweight Bout:  Mark Hominick vs. Eddie Yagin

Odds: (-550 Hominick / +375 Yagin )

Betting Pick: Hominick in a parlay

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In a very important bout for their respective careers, Mark “The Machine” Hominick will look to halt a two-fight losing streak against journeyman Eddie “The Filipino Phenom” Yagin. Yagin has a very solid 15-5 professional record, but he has fought a much, much lower level of competition than Hominick and this fight represents a huge step up for him. Hominick is currently on a disappointing two-fight skid, but the level of competition he has faced far outstrips Yagin’s and he is a much more complete fighter. Neither of these guys can afford to lose, being three fight losing streaks or dropping your first two UFC fights are not a good way to maintain employment.

Eddie Yagin has a nice 15-5 record as a professional, but his resume is full of smaller shows and low-level opponents. He has faced a few top fighters, including Rich Clementi and Vitor Ribeiro, but both of those guys beat him easily. Yagin is definitely well-rounded, and can hold his own standing and on the ground, but it’s hard to imagine his performance holding up any better against Hominick than it did against Rich Clementi. Yagin is a skilled fighter, but he might be in over his head at this level of competition.

Mark Hominick is a very versatile and effective veteran. While his 20-10 professional record may not look like much on paper, he has fought a very high level of competition and has hardly ever lost a fight that wasn’t against a world-class opponent. He can finish fights with strikes or submissions in equal measure. One thing he needs to be careful about is getting careless on the ground against Yagin. Hominick’s submission defense is notoriously poor, and Yagin does have pretty effective jiu-jitsu. I think Hominick has a lot of advantages in this fight, and if he can avoid getting careless and giving something away, he will be in a good position to win.

This is a very one-sided fight in my opinion. Hominick is a very exciting and dangerous Featherweight with two straight losses under his back, and Yagin is a perfect opponent to make it a good fight and get Hominick back in the win column. Yagin is a well-rounded guy with a lot of fights to his credit, so he will not be a total walkover, but Hominick is more effective in every area and has fought at a much higher level for years. I expect Hominick to control the action easily for a unanimous decision win. From a betting standpoint, avoid this one like the plague. Hominick is very nearly a sure thing, but considering the insanely one-sided line on this fight, there’s no reason to ever bet it. As for Yagin, even as a huge underdog, I don’t think he is a good bet either.

Prediction: Mark Hominick by Unanimous Decision.

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UFC Heavyweight bout:  Brendan Scahub vs. Ben Rothwell

Odds: (-300 Schaub /+230 Rothwell )

Betting Pick: Schaub

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In a featured Heavyweight bout, former IFL Heavyweight champion “Big” Ben Rothwell will square off against recent Ultimate Fighter finalist Brendan Schaub. Rothwell’s UFC tenure has been disappointing so far, marked by some upset losses and some ugly performances, and Schaub is coming off a shocking knockout loss at the hands of Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira. The Heavyweight division is UFC’s biggest selling point and Heavyweight stardom can make a guy’s career, so a win in this fight is hugely important for both guys. If they want to remain relevant in a top-heavy division, multiple losses in a row just isn’t an option. Rothwell has been around the block and has a versatile skill set and a lot of experience, but Schaub is a physically dominant athlete with dynamite in his hands, so Rothwell is going to need to show some of his old form if he wants to remain relevant in the UFC.

Ben Rothwell is a tough, experienced veteran with a well-rounded skill set. He has double-digit wins by both knockout and submission, so clearly he is capable of winning fights wherever they might play out. After utterly dominating the IFL’s Heavyweight division, though, Rothwell has had a string of uninspiring performances, dropping three out of his last five fights. Every top Heavyweight Rothwell has fought recently has had their way with him. Rothwell is actually a solid wrestler, but Schaub is so much stronger than him physically that I see Rothwell trying to use his experience to box with Schaub. If Schaub has a weakness it is that his chin is suspect, and Rothwell has the savvy and the punching power to take advantage of that. If he wants to avoid another loss and maybe a ticket out of the UFC, he needs to be aggressive in attacking Schaub’s chin and not let him get set and find his groove offensively.

Brendan Schaub is one of the most exciting and athletic young Heavyweights in the UFC. He was a finalist on The Ultimate Fighter before being knocked out by Roy “Big Country” Nelson, but he followed his performance up with four big wins in a row, three of them coming by T/KO. Schaub is physically dominant, with a lot of speed, explosiveness, and especially punching power. Every punch he throws has fight-ending potential and he can let his hands go at alarming speed. The only things holding Schaub back are that he is prone to letting himself get punched and that his chin is weak. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira is a great technical boxer, but he has never been known for having much in the way of knockout power, and he flattened Schaub with strikes in their fight. Schaub has killer potential and his punches are going to be hard for anyone to take, but if he ever wants a serious future in the UFC he is going to have to find a way to fight more defensively and only use his explosiveness when it doesn’t leave him wide open to having his glass jaw exploited.

This should be a very competitive match. Rothwell is the more experienced and accomplished of the two, but I don’t think he has an answer for Schaub’s speed and explosive punching power. I think Schaub will beat Rothwell to the punch consistently, use his physical advantages to tire Rothwell out, and eventually pounce in for the kill. Schaub by T/KO.

Prediction: Brendan Schaub by second round T/KO.

To add  a little more excitement come fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bovada.com Odds. Check out my review of Bodog here…

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