Tag: UFC betting

UFC Welterweight bout:  Martin Kampmann vs. Thiago Alves

Odds: ( +105 Kampmann /-135 Alves )

Betting Pick: Kampmann

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In the main event of the evening, former title challenger Thiago “Pitbull” Alves will square off against well-rounded Danish kickboxer Martin Kampmann in a featured Welterweight bout. Alves has shown time and again that he is one of the most dangerous and effective strikers in the Welterweight division, with punishing boxing and devastating kicks,but Kampmann is a formidable striker in his own right and also brings solid wrestling and effective jiu-jitsu to the cage. Both of these guys have had mixed results recently, but with Georges St.Pierre injured and Nick Diaz likely serving a long suspension, a win here could put them right back in the mix in the clouded title picture. The question here is whether Alves’ crushing physical strength and brutal Muay Thai will be enough to trump Kampmann’s superior versatility, or will Kampmann be able to impose his will and ground Alves, taking him off his game?

Thiago “Pitbull” Alves is, without a doubt, one of the most powerful and effective Welterweight strikers in the world. He has great boxing with heavy hands, brutal kicks to the legs and body, and devastating knees and dirty boxing from inside the clinch. There is no question that Alves has what it takes to stand and trade with anyone in the division, but he has shown some difficulty dealing with superior grapplers. The last three quality wrestlers he fought all managed to neutralize his offense either in the clinch or by putting him on his back, and he lost all three of those fights by decision. Kampmann isn’t as solid a wrestler as Fitch or Georges St. Pierre, but he does have solid takedowns and a quality ground game, so if Alves wants to win here he is going to have to make Kampmann pay for trying to get in close, either by catching him with punches on the way inside or by using his size and strength advantage, along with knees and dirty boxing, to wear Kampmann down in the clinch. If Kampmann is able to get Alves to the ground he is going to have a very difficult time fighting off his back, so it is imperative that Alves try to maintain some distance, chop away at Kampmann’s base with leg kicks, and use his jab to push Kampmann away and set up power punches.

Martin Kampmann, who trains out of the Xtreme Couture camp in Las Vegas, is without a doubt one of the most versatile and effective Welterweights in the UFC. He isn’t the division’s best grappler, or its most devastating striker, but very few Welterweights have such a well-rounded skill set or put it all together nearly as well. While he has dropped two of his last three fights, many feel he was robbed in his split decision loss to former Strikeforce champion Jake Shields. One question mark about Kampmann that could play an important role in this fight is his chin. He doesn’t have a glass jaw, but he has been knocked out by much less dangerous strikers than Alves, so if he lets Alves find a groove on the feet and start landing punches he could find himself in very serious trouble. Kampmann’s best weapon here is going to be his versatility. He shouldn’t totally shy away from striking with Alves, because he has good striking in his own right, but by mixing up his skills and using his well-rounded offense to keep Alves guessing, he can prevent Alves from asserting his will on the feet.

This is going to be a very competitive bout. Both of these guys have the potential to end the fight standing, but I think if this plays out as a kickboxing match Kampmann will ultimately get caught by the much more formidable Alves. If Kampmann can mix it up well, though, like he does in his best performances, it is going to be difficult for Alves to settle into his game plan, which is very dependent onout-muscling his opponents and chopping away at them with those powerful leg kicks. In the end, I think Kampmann’s wrestling is going to be the wild card here. While he is primarily known for his striking and his submissions, Kampmann’s takedowns are very underrated, both in the clinch and from range, and I think that is going to be the difference maker. Alves does not work well off his back at all, and I think Kampmann can not only score points with takedowns, but frustrate Alves and prevent him from really settling in to his game plan. This will be a hard-fought bout, and Alves will get some shots in, but I think Kampmann’s ability to dictate position andfight in all ranges will be the difference maker. Kampmann by unanimous decision.

Prediction: Martin Kampmann by Unanimous Decision.

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UFC Welterweight bout:  Jake Shields vs. Yoshihiro Akiyama

Odds:  (-300 Shields /+230 Akiyama )

Betting Pick:  Shields

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In a featured Welterweight bout, former Strikeforce Middleweight champion Jake Shields will look to recover from a two-fight skid against K-1 Hero’s veteran Yoshihiro Akiyama, who has dropped three in a row. Shields was once considered the best fighter in the world outside of the UFC, but has had an extremely rocky start to his UFC career, barely scraping by Martin Kampmann before getting destroyed by Welterweight champ Georges “Rush” St. Pierre and Jake Ellenberger in his last two outings. With both guys riding losing streaks in one of the UFC’s most competitive divisions, a win here is crucial for both men if they want to stay employed, much less assert themselves as legitimate players in the title picture. Despite their recent mixed results, both of these guys have versatile and dangerous skill sets, and with the added pressure of their losing streaks, this has the makings of an extremely competitive bout.

Yoshihiro “Sexyama” Akiyama, with his good looks and exciting, fight-finishing style, made himself one of the most popular fighters in Japan. He entered the UFC riding an 11 fight win streak, but has gone an extremely disappointing 1-4 inside the Octagon. Akiyama is an aggressive fighter with good judo throws from the clinch, solid boxing with good punching power, and effective submission offense. Against Shields it would be extremely inadvisable for him to try to turn this into a ground contest, because it is unlikely that he will be able to effectively take Shields down and, more importantly, because Shields’ submissions are way better than Akiyama’s defense. On the feet he will enjoy an advantage in speed, technique, and power, and if he wants to avoid another consecutive loss, he would be well served to try and stay on the outside and use his striking to keep Shields at bay. It’s worth noting that this is Akiyama’s first time fighting at 170 pounds, which could either mean that he will be even more effective because of his size advantage and because his power will translate better, or that he will struggle with the cut and suffer in the cardio and strength departments.

Jake Shields is one of the most prolific submission grapplers in the world at 170 pounds. A skilled wrestler as well, Shields is extremely good at getting fights to the ground, controlling opponents from top position, and setting up his ridiculously good submissions. His striking isn’t awful, but it is very rudimentary and he lacks any kind of real punching power. He can hold his own and defend himself, but his boxing is not going to strike fear into anyone’s heart, to put it mildly. Shields’ gameplan against Akiyama will be the same as it is against anyone: he will look for the takedown early and often and try to impose his will. Akiyama is a good grappler in his own right, but he doesn’t have what it takes to hang with Shields in an extended ground war, so if Shields can get his wrestling going early on he will be in a great position to reverse his fortunes and get a win here.

I don’t think this is a particularly favorable matchup for Akiyama. He will enjoy a striking advantage, but I don’t think that he has what it takes to keep Shields from taking him down and controlling this fight from top position. Despite getting triangle choked by Chris Leben, Akiyama actually does have fairly good submission defense, so he should be able to hang around for the judges’ decision, but I think Shields controls the pace and positioning for a relatively easy unanimous decision win.

Prediction:  Jake Shields by Unanimous Decision.

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UFC Lightweight Championship Bout:  Frankie Edgar vs. Benson Hendeson

Odds:  (-130 Edgar /Even- Henderson )

Betting Pick:  Edgar

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In the main event of the evening, UFC Lightweight champion Frankie “The Answer” Edgar will look to defend his title against former WEC standout Benson “Smooth” Henderson. Edgar, once considered undersized for the division, has established as a dominant champion with stellar defensive wrestling, effective boxing, and unmatched footwork. Henderson is a much bigger and stronger guy with good wrestling of his own and very effective submissions, but Edgar has proven that he has the tools to outbox anyone in the division and is notoriously difficult to take down. If Henderson wants to leave a champion, he is going to have to find a way to capitalize on his strength advantage and get Edgar on his back, where Henderson has the size, strength, and technique to control the action, score points with ground and pound, and work for submissions.

Benson Henderson was one of WEC’s biggest stars, and he made a very “Smooth” transition into the UFC. Henderson is one of the strongest, most dynamic athletes in the Lightweight division, and has extremely solid technique to back up his obvious physical prowess. Henderson is a very effective wrestler with great submissions, especially his guillotine choke, which is one of the best in the sport. He is dominant from top position and it is very hard for opponents to get out from underneath him. His striking is technically sound, but he doesn’t have a lot of punching power and, against Edgar, he will be at a significant disadvantage in both hand speed and footwork. Henderson’s biggest advantages will be size, strength, and reach, and if he can force Edgar to backpedal with long jabs while trying to set up takedowns and get this fight to top position, he will be putting himself in a great position to win this fight. One big question mark is how well Henderson will hold up moving into the championship rounds. He has fought five rounds twice before, and he is supremely conditioned, but Edgar’s evasive style and quick movement have a way of tiring guys out, so Henderson is going to need to be aggressive without blowing all his stamina in the early rounds if he wants to avoid petering out and letting Edgar pick him apart in the fourth and fifth.

Frankie “The Answer” Edgar was once considered too small to compete at Lightweight, where nearly all of his opponents have a size and strength advantage against him. Back to back drubbings of future Hall of Famer BJ Penn went a long way toward answering those questions, and his fourth round knockout of Gray Maynard in his last outing put them to rest for good. Edgar isn’t one of the most dominant fighters in the world in any one category, but he also has no glaring holes and puts everything together flawlessly. He is an accomplished wrestler with great submission skills, but he prefers to use both defensively rather than pressing for takedowns and trying to finish fights on the ground. Edgar’s best work comes in the striking, where he is crisp, quick, and accurate. His footwork is easily the best in the division, and his natural quickness allows him to move constantly, keep opponents guessing, and sneak shots past their defense while staying out of trouble himself. Against Henderson there is no question that Edgar will want to use his grappling defensively and try to keep this fight standing. There is a good chance he could hang with Henderson on the ground, too, but he would be foolish to play into Henderson’s strengths when he will have such a marked advantage on the feet.

This has all the makings of a very competitive championship bout. Both of these guys have the cardio to fight hard for all five rounds; both have extremely versatile skill sets that allow them to press the action wherever a fight goes; and neither has any huge, glaring holes in their game that will be easy for the other to exploit. In the end, though, I think the slight edge goes to Edgar here. He has fought better opponents, he has been on this biggest stage before, and he has an advantage in that fights start standing and Henderson is going to have to find a way to take him down, which Edgar has the tools to prevent. I see this fight going the distance, with a lot of back and forth, but I think Edgar’s ability to thwart Henderson’s takedowns coupled with his superior movement and punching acumen on the feet will allow him to score enough points to successfully defend his UFC Lightweight Title again. Edgar by decision.

Prediction:  Frankie Edgar by Unanimous Decision.

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