Tag: UFC betting

UFC Light Heavyweight Bout:  Rampage Jackson vs. Ryan Bader

Odds:  (-265 Jackson /+205 Bader )

Betting Pick:  Jackson

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In the semi-main event, PRIDE legend Quinton “Rampage” Jackson returns to his old Saitama stomping grounds to square off against tough young wrestler Ryan “Darth” Bader. Jackson is clearly on the tail end of his professional fighting career, but he is still a formidable wrestler with knockout power in either hand who will be looking to recapture some of his former greatness in the building where many of his greatest victories occurred. Bader, for his part, got off to a white-hot start before dropping two of his last three, so a win here is crucial if he wants to remain at all relevant in the crowded Light Heavyweight picture. Both of these guys are solid wrestlers with heavy hands who like to stand and throw, so this has all the makings of an exciting and competitive Light Heavyweight showdown.

Ryan “Darth” Bader looked like one of the UFC’s fastest rising stars for a while, holding an undefeated professional record and punishing opponents with his blend of heavy-handed power punching, dominant wrestling, and top control. After seeing his winning streak destroyed by Light Heavyweight champion Jon “Bones” Jones and suffering an embarrassing upset at the hands of former champion Tito Ortiz, though, Bader saw his stock plummet substantially in a matter of months. He did rebound slightly with a win over journeyman grappler Jason Brilz, but now he is back in the deep end of the division fighting another world-class opponent with years and years of experience on him. Bader has the tools to succeed at the highest levels of the Light Heavyweight division, but he has to find a way to put it all together better and he has to improve his submission defense as well. Bader showed against both Jones and Ortiz that he has a hard time dealing with anyone he can’t outwrestle, and Rampage is a perfect example of a guy who can not only match him in the wrestling department, he is also a more dangerous striker as well. If Bader wants to avoid his third loss in four fights and a possible pink slip from the UFC, he is going to have to pick his spots and fight carefully, not giving anything away to Jackson, who has the skills and experience to capitalize on any mistake.

Quinton “Rampage” Jackson was one of the most dangerous and popular fighters during PRIDE’s best days, and has continued to show that he is one of the best Light Heavyweights on the planet even in the late stages of his career. Jackson is a great wrestler with a surplus of physical strength and knockout power in both fists. He doesn’t mix it up much in the striking, rarely throwing kicks and instead preferring to box his opponents, but his punching power and the wide, looping trajectory of his haymakers make him a tough fighter to defend against. He has never used his wrestling much offensively, although he certainly could if he decided to. Jackson’s gameplan is to get in his opponents’ faces, keep throwing big punches, and wait until one connects. In a lot of ways Bader is a tailor-made opponent for him, because he will be willing to stand and trade shots for extended periods of time. Rampage is past his physical peak, but he still has it in him to punish anyone dumb enough to be on the end of one of his power punches, and Bader is likely to be ripe for the picking in that regard.

I just don’t think this is a good matchup for Bader on any level. These guys have extremely similar skill sets, but Jackson has been doing it years longer and against massively superior opponents. I don’t think Bader has the wrestling to put Rampage on his back and I don’t think he has the punching power to get through Rampage’s solid chin. This fight will play out on the feet I think, and Jackson will get the better of those exchanges before eventually connecting with enough power shots to put Bader away. Jackson by T/KO.

Prediction:  Rampage Jackson by third round T/KO.

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UFC Heavyweight bout:  Cheick Kongo vs. Mark Hunt

Odds:  (-300Kongo /+230 Hunt )

Betting Pick:  Kongo

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In a featured Heavyweight matchup, former PRIDE veteran and K-1 World Grand Prix champion Mark Hunt will square off against dangerous French kickboxer Cheick Kongo. Both of these guys are dangerous strikers with a lot of experience and deadly punching power, so this one has the potential to be a legendary standup war between two huge guys who are ready for action. There is no question that Kongo has better conditioning and a much more complete fight game, but when two guys this big and strong let their hands go, anything could happen at any time.

Mark Hunt was a mainstay in PRIDE during its heyday, and before that won the K-1 World Grand Prix, so clearly he is a very formidable kickboxer. In addition to his punishing striking, Hunt is known for having a granite chin and being able to absorb a huge amount of punishment, although some of that durability has eroded as he has aged and entered the twilight of his fighting career. Many thought Hunt was finished after he dropped six fights in a row, but he has rebounded with two straight wins in the UFC, so there is still a little left in his tank. There is basically no chance of Hunt beating Kongo with speed, technique, or cardio at this point, but as long as he is standing up and capable of throwing punches, he is still in this fight.

Cheick Kongo may not have Hunt’s K-1 kickboxing pedigree, but he has proven time and again that he is a formidable striker who is not to be underestimated. In addition to devastating power punching, kicking, and clinch work, Kongo also has some of the most underrated wrestling in the division and purely destructive ground and pound. There is every reason to believe that Kongo can outstrike Hunt with relative ease, but even if he gets in trouble he has the fallback plan of being able to plant Hunt on his back where he is helpless and unload disgustingly powerful punches from top position. Kongo also has an excellent chin which should allow him to fight more aggressively on the feet and take the fight right to the fatter, slower Hunt.

This is a terrible matchup for Hunt. He has enough power in his hands that he has a puncher’s chance against anyone in the world, but at this point there is literally nothing he does better than Kongo. Kongo will beat him to the punch consistently, can match him in power, and can hurt him with kicks, knees from the clinch, takedowns, and ground and pound as well. Nearly all of Hunt’s professional losses have come by way of submission, which illustrates just how terrible he really is on the ground. Kongo is unlikely to submit him, but I think he will outbox him fairly easily before this fight winds up on the ground where Kongo will force the stoppage with ground and pound. Kongo by T/KO.

Prediction:  Cheick Kongo by second round T/KO.

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UFC Welterweight bout:  Diego Sanchez vs. Jake Ellenberger

Odds:  (+250 Sanchez /-325 Ellenberger )

Betting Pick:  Ellenberger

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In the main event of the evening, former Ultimate Fighter winner Diego “The Dream” Sanchez will look for his third consecutive win since returning to the Welterweight division. Standing in his way is heavy-handed contender Jake “The Juggernaut” Ellenberger, who is riding a five fight win streak and coming off the biggest victory of his career, an utter destruction of former Strikeforce champion Jake Shields. Sanchez is one of the most aggressive grapplers in the sport, with great takedowns and submissions, but his boxing is more than suspect and he has poor defense in the standup. Ellenberger, who has a surplus of knockout power and very effective striking, is more than capable of exploiting those weaknesses as long as he can keep Sanchez from getting in his face and bullying his way into top position. Sanchez, after a failed stint at 155, really needs a win here to re-establish himself as a top player at 170, while a win for Ellenberger probably puts him firmly in the middle of the Welterweight title picture, which is wide open following Nick Diaz’s recent failed drug test and Georges St. Pierre’s injury.

Diego Sanchez, formerly known as “The Nightmare” and now known as “The Dream”, is a dangerous and aggressive grappler no matter what you call him. He is renowned for establishing a relentless pace in his fights and never ceasing to move forward and press the action. His takedowns are very effective, he has solid submissions from a variety of positions, and he can do a lot of damage with ground and pound from inside his opponent’s guard or from a dominant position. Sanchez’s cardio is one of his best weapons, because it allows him to keep the pressure on from bell to bell for the entire fight. The only glaring hole in Diego’s game is his boxing, which is pretty awkward and not particularly powerful. His odd boxing stance also makes it difficult for him to effectively defend punches, which means if he fights anyone with even passable boxing who also has takedown defense, he tends to fall apart, eat a lot of shots, and get beat up. Ellenberger has very powerful hands and is a very solid wrestler in his own right, so Diego is really going to need to find a way to force the issue and get this fight to the ground if he wants to leave a winner and put himself back in the contender’s position he enjoyed a few years ago.

Jake “The Juggernaut” Ellenberger surprised a lot of pundits in his last fight, destroying highly-regarded former Strikeforce champion Jake Shields with strikes in the first minute of their encounter. Ellenberger is a prolific finisher, having finished the fight in 22 of his 26 professional wins. His striking is devastating, as Shields learned the hard way, and he can hurt you with both hands, both knees, and both legs. He is also a skilled wrestler, although he prefers to let his hands go. Against Sanchez, who has no way of outstriking him, Ellenberger’s wrestling skills could come in handy and allow him to keep this fight standing where he will enjoy a tremendous advantage. Ellenberger is a capable grappler, but if he has to work off his back for extended periods against Sanchez, he is going to be in for a very long night. Having beaten Shields, with Jon Fitch recently losing, and with the scheduled Nick Diaz versus Carlos Condit rematch seemingly shelved because of Diaz’s drug test an, an emphatic win over Sanchez could well put Ellenberger into the number one contender’s spot for a shot at Condit’s UFC Interim Welterweight Title, so “The Juggernaut” has a lot to fight for in this one.

I think this matchup heavily favors Ellenberger. His striking is light years beyond Sanchez’s, and I think he is a good enough defensive wrestler to keep this fight standing for the most part. On the feet Sanchez has no answer for Ellenberger’s power or technique, and he will find himself getting picked apart in short order. Eventually, Ellenberger will start sneaking big shots past Sanchez’s porous defense, and it is only a matter of time before he puts Sanchez out. Ellenberger by T/KO.

Prediction:  Jake Ellenberger by second round T/KO.

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UFC Heavyweight bout:  Stefan Struve vs. Dave Herman

Odds:  (+110 Struve /-140 Herman )

Betting Pick:  Herman

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In the semi-main event, two dangerous Heavyweight strikers will go at it as heavy-handed slugger Dave Herman squares off against rangy Dutch kickboxer Stefan “Skyscraper” Struve. Both of these guys have destructive striking, but Herman is definitely the more dangerous one-punch knockout artist while Struve will enjoy a massive reach advantage and has world-class jiu-jitsu to back up his striking. On the feet, both of these guys have the tools to finish fights, but Struve has a much more versatile offensive skill set, so Herman is going to have to be aggressive and try to get inside Struve’s reach to punish him with power punches if he wants to avoid the loss here.

Dave Herman is a very dangerous power puncher with good technique, very heavy hands, and a solid chin. His striking style is bruising and aggressive, and every punch he throws has fight-ending potential. Against Struve he will be at a pretty massive reach disadvantage, but if he can get inside Struve’s ridiculous range he has the style and power to destroy Struve with heavy punches and uppercuts from the inside. Herman is the shorter man by far, but he is also far more physically powerful and should be able to keep Struve from taking him down, which is going to be huge in this fight since Herman doesn’t have much in the way of jiu-jitsu and Struve’s submissions are top notch. Herman is going to have to fight a careful fight, because Struve has a lot of punching power too and a superhuman amount of reach, but if Herman can defend himself while moving forward and pressing the action, he has all the tools to really punish Struve with dirty boxing from in tight.

Stefan “Skyscraper” Struve is a very tall, very lanky striker with great reach, great technique, and a world class submission game to go along with it all. He doesn’t have quite as much one punch knockout power as Herman, but his ability to use his reach effectively to keep guys on the end of his punches while staying out of range make him a tough nut to crack. If Struve can get this fight to the ground, he will enjoy a huge advantage in that his jiu-jitsu is world class and Herman has almost no grappling skills at all. Whether or not Struve is capable of getting this fight to the ground is another question, because he is not a particularly effective wrestler and Herman is the much stronger and more compact of the two. Struve is going to have to be very careful in this fight, though, because his chin is notoriously suspect and Herman has more than enough power to make him pay dearly for any mistakes or carelessness.

This is a really tough fight to call. Both of these guys have the tools to end the fight on the feet at any time. It remains to be seen whether Herman’s superior power will trump Struve’s superior reach and versatility, or whether Struve will be able to take Herman down if he decides to. In the end, I think Struve’s glass jaw is going to be the deciding factor here. Even if Struve can land shots on Herman, his lack of one-shot knockout power is going to allow Herman to move forward through the punishment and get inside, where his shorter, more compact build will actually become an asset. On the inside I don’t see a way for Struve to stop Herman from landing big shots, and Herman has too much power for Struve to survive the onslaught for long. Struve will land some punches, but in the end I think Herman will be too much for him. Herman by T/KO.

Prediction:  Dave Herman by first round T/KO.

To add  a little more excitement come fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds. Check out my review of Bodog here…

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Current UFC 144 Betting Lines – On February 26, 2012, UFC will return to the land of the rising sun as UFC 144 airs from the Saitama Super Arena in Saitama, Japan. The Saitama Super Arena was home to many legendary PRIDE events and has a massive capacity, so this could be a huge show. In the main event, Lightweight champion Frankie “The Answer” Edgar and challenger Benson Henderson will try to recapture the magic of the mid-2000s PRIDE events with the title on theline. Henderson is a physically dominant athlete with great wrestling, solid technical boxing, and extremely effective submissions, but Edgar’s smooth footwork, evasive boxing style, and accurate punching, along with his stellar defensive wrestling, have made him a very tough nut to crack. There is no question that Henderson will the larger, stronger fighter, but Edgar has made his name beating bigger, scarier guys with his untouchable technique and slick in-ring style. If Henderson wants to leave a champion, he is going to have to find a way to impose his will and never let Edgar get comfortable, because Edgar has shown time and time again that once he starts working his own game and getting into a groove, he is nearly impossible to unseat.

Main card:

Frankie Edgar vs. Ben Henderson

Bodog.com Odds

• Edgar               (-130)
  
• Henderson    (+100)
  

Betonline.com Odds

• Edgar              (-120)
  
• Henderson   (+100)
  

Rampage Jackson vs. Ryan Bader

Bodog.com Odds

• Jackson  (-260)
  
• Bader       (+200)
  

Betonline.com Odds

• Jackson
• Bader
  

Mark Hunt vs. Cheick Kongo

Bodog.com Odds

• Hunt
• Kongo

Betonline.com Odds

• Hunt
  
• Kongo
  

Yoshihiro Akiyama vs. Jake Shields

Bodog.com Odds

• Akiyama
• Shields

Betonline.com Odds

• Akiyama
• Shields
  

Takanori Gomi vs. Eiji Mitsuoka

Bodog.com Odds

• Gomi
• Mitsuoka

Betonline.com Odds

• Gomi
• Mitsuoka
  

Yushin Okami vs. Tim Boetsch

Bodog.com Odds

• Okami
• Boetsch

Betonline.com Odds

• Okami
• Boetsch
  

Preliminary card:

Hatsu Hioki vs. Bart Palaszewski

Bodog.com Odds

• Hioki
• Palaszewski
  

Anthony Pettis vs. Joe Lauzon

Bodog.com Odds

• Pettis
• Lauzon
  

Norifumi Yamamoto vs. Vaughan Lee

Bodog.com Odds

• Yamamoto
• Lee
  

Riki Fukuda vs. Steve Cantwell

Bodog.com Odds

• Fukuda
• Cantwell
  

Takeya Mizugaki vs. Chris Cariaso

Bodog.com Odds

• Mizugaki
• Cariaso
  

Zhang Tiequan vs. Nam Phan

Bodog.com Odds

• Tiequan
• Phan
  

In the semi-main event, PRIDE stalwart Quinton “Rampage”Jackson will look to give the Japanese fans one last show against tough wrestler Ryan Bader in the same building where he knocked out Ricardo Arona with one of the most legendary slams in Mixed Martial Arts history. Both of these guys can wrestle, but Jackson is by far the more devastating striker while Bader has been much more active recently. Also featured will be PRIDE andK-1 veteran Mark Hunt taking on Cheick Kongo in a match up of powerful Heavyweight strikers, the Japanese return of Yoshihiro Akiyama against former Strikeforce champion Jake Shields in a Welterweight bout, and a great Lightweight match up between Joe “J-Lau” Lauzon and WEC standout Anthony Pettis.

Make sure to Check back with us closer to fight night as I will have updated UFC 144 Odds plus Fight Predictions.  And to add a little excitement to your fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds.

UFC on Fuel Betting Odds – On Wednesday, February 15, 2012, UFC on FUEL TV will air live on the FUEL network from the Century Link Center in Omaha, Nebraska. In the main event, heavy-handed contender Jake “The Juggernaut” Ellenberger will look to make it six wins in a row against the recently resurgent Diego “The Dream” Sanchez. Sanchez, who dropped to 155 after mixed results at Welterweight, had a rough time with the weight cut and has looked very good since returning to 170 pounds. Sanchez’s aggressive grappling style and solid submission work make him a very tough opponent to deal with, but Ellenberger is a formidable wrestler in his own right with the kind of knockout power in his hands that could give Sanchez, whose boxing stance tends to resemble a Notre Dame Fighting Irish mascot, a lot of difficulties. If Sanchez wants to reestablish himself in the top 10 of the Welterweight division, he is going to need to press the issue with take downs and not spend a lot of time standing and boxing with Ellenberger. A win over Sanchez puts Ellenberger firmly in the title picture, so there is a lot at stake here for both guys.

Main card:

Diego Sanchez vs. Jake Ellenberger

Bodog.com Odds

• Sanchez          (+250)
  
• Ellenberger    (-325)
  

Betonline.com Odds

• Sanchez           (+270)
  
• Ellenberger    (-325)
  

Stefan Struve vs. Dave Herman

Bodog.com Odds

• Struve      (+110)
  
• Herman   (-140)
  

Betonline.com Odds

• Struve     (+125)
  
• Herman  (-145)
  

Aaron Simpson vs. Ronny Markes

Bodog.com Odds

• Simpson  (-115)
• Markes     (-115)

Betonline.com Odds

• Simpson   (-110)
• Markes     (-110)
  

Stipe Miocic vs. Philip De Fries

Bodog.com Odds

• Miocic     (-500)
• De Fries   (+350)

Betonline.com Odds

• Miocic    (-320)
• De Fries  (+380)
  

TJ Dillashaw vs. Walel Watson

Bodog.com Odds

• Dillashaw   (-275)
• Watson       (+215)

Betonline.com Odds

• Dillashaw   ()
• Watson       ()
  

Preliminary card:

Ivan Menjivar vs. John Albert

Bodog.com Odds

• Menjivar  (-270)
• Albert        (+210)
  

Jonathan Brookins vs. Vagner Rocha

Bodog.com Odds

• Brookins  (-225)
• Rocha      (+175)
  

Anton Kuivanen vs. Justin Salas

Bodog.com Odds

• Kuivanen  (+105)
• Salas            (-135)
  

Tim Means vs. Bernardo Magalhaes

Bodog.com Odds

• Means            (+140)
• Magalhaes    (-170)
  

 

In the semi-main event, two skilled Heavyweight strikers will go at it as Dutchman Stefan “Skyscraper” Struve will square off against heavy-handed slugger Dave Herman. Herman is the more powerful of the two physically, and has heavier hands, but Struve will enjoy a titanic reach advantage and has a world-class jiu-jitsu game to complement his striking, so this should be a great Heavyweight clash. The rest of the card features Aaron “A-Train”Simpson against Ronny Markes in a Middleweight showdown, a Heavyweight matchup between Philip de Fries and Stipe Miocic, and a 135 pound showdown pitting T.J. Dillashaw against Walel “The Gazelle” Watson.

Make sure to Check back with us closer to fight night as I will have updated UFC on Fuel 1 Odds plus Fight Predictions.  And to add a little excitement to your fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds.