Tag: UFC betting

UFC Bantamweight bout:  Renan Barao vs. Scott Jorgensen

Odds: (-240 Barao / +190 Jorgensen )

Betting Pick: Jorgensen

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In a featured 135 bout, Scott “Young Guns” Jorgensen will look to make it three wins in a row against prolific submission grappler Renan“Barao” Pegado. Jorgensen is widely considered a top 5 Bantamweight, and his sterling amateur wrestling background makes him a very formidable opponent. Pegado, after dropping his first professional fight in 2005, has put together 27 consecutive wins in Shooto, WEC, and UFC, with a remarkable 13 of those coming by way of submission. This is an interesting style match up, in that Jorgensen’s dominant take downs feed right into Pegado’s world-class submission game. It is entirely possible that this fight between two guys primarily known for their grappling will be decided by which guy can do more in the striking.

Scott “Young Guns” Jorgensen is a versatile young fighter with solid punching power and a decent submission game. He can box and he can submit guys from top position, but his best work comes from his stellar take downs, top control, and ground and pound. Jorgensen is one of the most accomplished wrestlers in the sport at 135 pounds, and is very hard to stop from controlling opponents physically, stacking up from top position, and raining down punishment. Against Pegado,working inside the guard might be a reckless decision, but Jorgensen has an advantage in that his wrestling will allow him to defend Pegado’s takedown attempts much more effectively and dictate how this fight plays out. Pegado is also dangerous standing up, but being able to dictate position and being able to use the threat of take downs to neutralize Pegado’s striking are both big advantages for Jorgensen in this fight.

Renan “Barao” Pegado is a long-time veteran of Shooto, WEC,and the UFC who is currently riding a ridiculous 27 fight winning streak. Pegado is one of the most dangerous offensive fighters in the Bantamweight division, with great punching, solid wrestling,and world-class jiu-jitsu. His submissions are spectacular from every position and he has great sweeps and escapes. His standup is powerful and accurate. The big disadvantage he is going to have in this fight is wrestling. He is perfectly capable of working off his back, but being unable to dictate position on the ground is going to hurt him and Jorgensen’s top game is really effective.

This is a very tough fight to call because both guys have so many weapons. There is no question that Jorgensen is the better wrestler, but sitting in Pegado’s guard might be a recipe for disaster. Both guys have heavy hands on the feet, but Pegado is maybe a bit crisper. This could really go either way, but I think the edge in terms of quality opponents, physicality, and strength go to Jorgensen. As a +190 or so underdog, I think it’s hard to bet against Jorgensen’s ultra-physical wrestling and quality submission defense. Jorgensen by decision.

Prediction: Scott Jorgensen by Decision.

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UFC Welterweight bout:  Josh Koscheck vs. Mike Pierce

Odds: (-265 Koscheck /+205 Pierce )

Betting Pick: Koscheck

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In a featured Welterweight match up, former title challenger Josh “Kos” Koscheck will square off against tough young contender Mike Pierce, who has won four out of his last five. Pierce is a versatile young fighter with heavy hands and a developing skill set, but Koscheck also has a surplus of knock out power to complement his world-class wrestling, so this is going to be the toughest challenge of Pierce’s career so far. On the feet he probably has the tools to hold Koscheck off most of the time and even land some big shots of his own, but for that to happen he is going to have to find a way to stop Koscheck’s driving double leg takedowns, which is a lot easier on paper than it is in the Octagon.

Mike Pierce is a very promising young Welterweight prospect with a rapidly developing game and some dangerous power in his hands. Pierce’s approach is very workman like, and he has the skills to make a fight competitive anywhere it goes, but thus far he lacks that one skill that allows him to impose his will on his opponents and take fights over. He prefers to approach each fight with a dynamic game plan, rolling with the punches wherever the fight plays out and looking for openings to land his big shots or score some points. Against Koscheck it is vitally important that Pierce fights smart and uses range and his jab to set up his big punches, because he has very little chance of surviving underneath Koscheck While forced to work off his back. This is going to be a tough fight for Pierce either way, but if he wants a chance it is going to have to be a standup affair, where his punching power could potentially turn the tide. In a wrestling match, Koscheck’s superior strength and technique will bury him.

Josh “Kos” Koscheck has come a very long way since his de facto role as the villain on the inaugural season of The Ultimate Fighter. On the reality show, he earned the acrimony of the fans with his juvenile behavior and with his decidedly unentertaining lay and pray style. Over the intervening years, Koscheck has grown into a very formidable kickboxer in his own right while continuing to possess the dominant takedown game that got him to the show. Opponents had trouble stopping his takedowns when they knew for a fact they were coming, and they have even more trouble stopping them now that they also have to worry about huge knockout punches, kicks, and knees. The only problems Koscheck has ever really displayed in the Octagon are with guys who he can’t out wrestle and who force him to fight defensively. If he can get into his groove and start really working his game plan, he is extremely difficult to stop.

This is just a bad fight for Pierce. His best attribute is his punching power,which Koscheck also has a surplus of. Unfortunately for Pierce, Koscheck probably has better speed and technique on the feet and assuredly has a vastly superior ground game. I don’t see any way for Pierce to win this fight, and I expect Koscheck to take him down at will and dominate him from top position for a lopsided unanimous decision.

Prediction: Josh Koscheck by Unanimous Decision.

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UFC Welterweight Interim Championship bout:  Nick Diaz vs. Carlos Condit

Odds:  (-225 Diaz /+175 Condit )

Betting Pick:  Diaz

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In the main event of the evening, former Strikeforce Welterweight champion Nick Diaz and top contender “The Natural Born Killer” Carlos Condit will meet for the UFC Interim Welterweight title. Diaz was originally scheduled to face champion Georges St. Pierre in his Octagon return, but was pulled from the fight and replaced with Condit after failing to show up for promotional appearances. With St. Pierre on the sidelines for most of 2012 with injuries and Diaz riding the momentum of dominating former Welterweight champion B.J. Penn, Condit and Diaz will now meet to determine an interim champion. Both of these guys are prolific finishers with versatile offensive skill sets and aggressive styles, so this fight will likely be far more entertaining than either man vs. St. Pierre would have been.

“The Natural Born Killer” Carlos Condit is one of the most versatile and effective Welterweights in the UFC. Currently riding a four fight win streak and having won 11 of his last 12 bouts, Condit has established himself as one of the top players in the Welterweight division. Condit is a prolific finisher, having only won by decision once, and is one of the most versatile fighters in the sport, as is evidenced by his having an even number of wins by T/KO and submission. He has great hand speed and power and he is effective from range and in the clinch. If there is a hole in his game it is his wrestling, which is serviceable but not dominant. Luckily for him, Diaz is also a subpar wrestler, so that probably shouldn’t come back to bite him. Basically, for Condit and Diaz both, this fight is going to come down to balancing aggression with fighting mistake-free. Both of these guys are so effective with striking and grappling that it might well come down to who slips up first, so Condit is going to have to find a way to impose his own gameplan, not let Diaz get comfortable, but also not get too aggressive and leave himself open.

Nick Diaz has grown into one of the most feared and complete Welterweights in the world. After a first stint in the UFC highlighted by mixed results and some disappointing losses, Diaz really developed into a world-class striker during his time in Strikeforce. His jiu-jitsu has always been stellar from every conceivable position, and with the addition of devastating punching he has become an offensive force to be reckoned with. His punching is highly unorthodox, and while he doesn’t have the same amount of one-punch power that Condit does, he is a master of piling damage on his opponents and relentlessly pressing forward with more shots, making it impossible for them to recover or defend themselves. Like Condit, Diaz isn’t a spectacular wrestler, but he is destructive in the standup and guys are reticent to take him down because of how dominant his jiu-jitsu is. The other thing that makes Diaz so scary is his otherworldly cardio, which allows him to press the action constantly no matter how long a fight goes.

This is one of the toughest fights to call in recent memory. Both of these guys have a ton of momentum against high-level opponents, both have versatile and dangerous skill sets that make them dangers to finish at any time no matter where a fight goes, and neither has glaring weaknesses. This is going to come down to who can impose their own gameplan, who can be more aggressive, and who makes the fewest mistakes. As tough as these two guys are, they are both so dangerous that it is hard to see a five round fight between them going the distance. In the end, I think the edge here goes to Diaz. I think his cardio and chin are a little better, his jiu-jitsu is much better, and his unorthodox boxing style is going to make him a little harder to defend against in the striking. I just think Diaz has too many tools for Condit and will find a way to take this fight over in the late rounds, where his superior cardio and punching volume will overwhelm Condit. Diaz by T/KO.

Prediction:  Nick Diaz by third round T/KO.

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UFC Heavyweight bout:  Roy Nelson vs. Fabricio Werdum

Odds: (+120 Nelson /-150 Werdum )

Betting Pick: Nelson

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In the semi-main event, two very accomplished Heavyweight grapplers will go at it as Brazilian jiu-jitsu ace Fabricio “Vai Cavalo” Werdum squares off against heavy-handed black belt Roy “Big Country” Nelson. Both of these guys have great submissions, although Werdum has a more impressive jiu-jitsu pedigree, but Nelson has surprisingly fast hands and a surplus of knockout power in his punches. Considering Nelson’s striking advantage and the fact that his huge bulk and quality ground game make him difficult to take down and control, this is going to be a very tough test for Werdum, who is coming off a loss and a long string of inactivity.

Fabricio Werdum is a very accomplished grappler whose jiu-jitsu experience translated very well to Mixed Martial Arts. His signature win was a shocking upset of the once-unbeatable Fedor Emelianenko, but in his last fight he was trounced by former Strikeforce champion Alistair Overeem. Werdum is a world-class grappler and notoriously difficult to finish, but he is also something of a one-trick pony. His wrestling isn’t spectacular and his boxing is very rudimentary. Basically he depends on finding a way to get fights to the ground, regardless of the position, and then uses his jiu-jitsu to set up sweeps, escapes, and submissions. Against Nelson he might find that game plan difficult considering Nelson’s superior bulk, wrestling, and punching power.

Roy “Big Country” Nelson doesn’t look much like the prototypical athlete, but he has proven time and again that he is an effective and dangerous Heavyweight fighter. Far from being hampered by his massive gut, Nelson uses it as a weapon to pin opponents down and smother them from the crucifix position, where he is absurdly dominant. Nelson is a solid wrestler with decent technical boxing, very heavy hands, and great submissions, mainly from top position. Against Werdum he will probably only look to use his wrestling defensively, since he has the technique and power to manhandle Werdum on the feet and will probably prefer to press his advantage there.

They say styles make fights, and the style matchup here is not very favorable from Werdum. He is facing a better wrestler with great jiu-jitsu of his own with all the tools to manhandle him on the feet. I don’t think Werdum is going to be able to force this fight to the ground consistently, and on the feet Nelson will play target practice with his head because of his shoddy footwork and defense. Werdum should hang around for a decision, but I think Nelson clearly outpunches him to take all three rounds. Nelson by decision.

Prediction:  Roy “Big Country” Nelson by Unanimous Decision.

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UFC Middleweight bout:  Demian Maia vs. Chris Weidman

Odds:  (+120 Maia /-150 Weidman )

Betting Pick:  Weidman

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In a featured Middleweight bout, former title challenger Demian Maia will look to make it two wins in a row against undefeated phenom Chris “All American” Weidman. Maia is, without a doubt, one of the most prolific submission grapplers in the sport, with world-class jiu-jitsu from every position and rapidly improving wrestling and striking. Weidman has earned himself a lot of hype with a stellar takedown game of his own and an aggressive ground game focused on passing guard, improving his position, softening opponents up with ground and pound, and securing submissions of his own. Weidman has looked unstoppable thus far in his young career, but there is no question that Maia represents a big step up in competition for him and is an opponent that can test his strengths and his weaknesses, so he will need to step his game up if he wants to continue building momentum.

Demian Maia is arguably the most effective submission grappler in the world at 185 pounds, with stellar submissions from every position and world-class sweeps and escapes. His boxing is very much a work in progress, but he continues to improve. He will never be a dangerous striker as he lacks power and it’s too late for him to develop world class technique, but he has become much more effective and aggressive in the striking department. His wrestling isn’t dominant either, but his takedowns continue to improve and he has very tricky trips and short takedowns from the clinch. Maia will always be a grappler first, and will do anything it takes to get fights to the ground, including pulling guard. Against Weidman that really might not be the best plan, because Weidman has pretty good jiu-jitsu of his own and is devastating from top position. If Maia wants to reassert himself as a top figure in the Middleweight division, he is going to have to score points on the feet and try to find tricky ways to wind up in top position on the ground, because he doesn’t want to be underneath Weidman no matter how good his jiu-jitsu is.

Chris Weidman is one of the most exciting and promising young prospects in the Middleweight division. A Matt Serra disciple, Weidman has carved out an undefeated record with dominant wrestling, punishing ground and pound, and excellent submissions of his own. Like Maia, his striking is a work in progress, but he is still young and has shown vast improvement every time he has shown up to fight, so who knows how much his technique has developed since his last fight. There is no question that Weidman’s best work comes on the ground, but he is going to have to be cautious fighting a grappler of Maia’s caliber. Weidman has great jiu-jitsu of his own, so it is entirely possible that he will be able to do enough on the ground to avoid getting submitted while working Maia over from top position, but if he gets too reckless throwing punches or trying to pass guard he could well be setting himself up for disaster. One thing Weidman has going for him is a huge advantage in the wrestling department, so when this fight inevitably goes to the ground he will almost definitely be the one dictating when it happens and in what position.

This is going to be a very tough fight. As strange as it may seem considering the grappling prowess of these two fighters, this one may well come down to who can do more on the feet since their jiu-jitsu could well turn the ground game into a stalemate. It is going to require a very good performance, but I think ultimately the edge here goes to Weidman. He is the better wrestler and will likely control top position on the ground, and I think he has a technical edge on the feet too. I think it is highly unlikely that either of these guys will finish the other, but I think Weidman should be able to do enough to earn the narrow decision in a very competitive bout.

Prediction:  Chris Weidman by Decision.

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