Tag: UFC betting

UFC Light Heavyweight bout:  Rashad Evans vs. Phil Davis

Odds: (-210 Evans /+170 Davis )

Betting Pick: Evans

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In the main event of the evening, former Light Heavyweight champion “Suga” Rashad Evans will look to secure his long-promised shot at archrival Jon “Bones” Jones’ Light Heavyweight title. Standing in his way is up and coming contender Phil “Mr. Wonderful” Davis, who has used his own dominant wrestling to carve out an undefeated professional record and position himself as one of the top young contenders at 205 pounds. Both of these guys have sterling amateur wrestling backgrounds, but Evans has fought much better competition and has had way more time to become a complete Mixed Martial Artist, so this is going to be the toughest fight of Davis’ young career. With a win for Rashad ensuring him a shot at Jones, with whom he has had a very public feud over the last year, and a win for Davis cementing him as one of the top players in the division,this fight has a lot at stake and promises to be very hard-fought and competitive.

Phil “Mr. Wonderful” Davis is one of the most exciting young fighters in the sport, with a spectacular amateur wrestling background,freakish athleticism, and an undefeated record as a professional. Evans is a rare physical specimen, with explosive quickness and freakish strength, which only helps to complement his technically superior wrestling. Very few athletes in the UFC can do the things Davis can do from a physical stand point. That said, he is still growing as a mixed martial artist, and he seemed to struggle a good bit in his last fight against Antonio Rogerio Nogueira. If there is a hole in Davis’ game it is his striking, both offensively and defensively. He does have power but his technique is still a work in progress, and against Nogueira he did not seem able to prevent himself from getting punched. Worse, he did not seem to react well to getting hit, which could be a huge problem against Evans, who has way more knockout power than Nogueira does. If Davis wants to put himself in a position for the title shot he feels he deserves, he is going to have to find away to deal with Evans’ superior striking and experience and try to out wrestle a formidable wrestler, which is clearly no simple task.

“Suga” Rashad Evans is a former Light Heavyweight titleholder and has been the #1 contender, on paper, for well over a year. A series of unfortunately timed injuries have kept Evans from claiming his title shot, and now timing dictates that he clear another hurdle before he gets his chance at Jones’ title. Evans is an extremely dangerous fighter with great takedowns, heavy hands, and a great clinch game that he can use to neutralize opponents. Evans has shown that he has the technique necessary to deal with bigger, stronger fighters,which will come in handy against Davis, who clearly has the physical edge. Rashad’s biggest advantages are his top-level fight experience and his versatility, which mean that he has more tricks up his sleeves from more positions than Davis does. Evans has the luxury of being able to compete no matter how the fight plays out, and is not as dependent as Davis on imposing his own game plan.

This is a tough fight to call for a variety of reasons. For one thing, these two guys have very similar styles and skill sets. Davis is more physically imposing, but Evans has better technique. Evans has far more experience against world-class opponents, but has also been far less active than Davis over the last two years because of repeated injuries. In the end, I think this is going to be an extremely close fight, but Rashad should be able to do enough to earn a narrow decision win. I think their wrestling may largely cancel each other out, and once Rashad starts landing punches I think Davis is going to get much less aggressive rather quickly. Rashad should be able to prevent himself from getting rag dolled while landing enough punches and using his footwork and movement to keep Davis at bay and earn the unanimous decision.

Prediction: “Suga” Rashad Evans by Unanimous Decision.

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UFC Middleweight bout:  Chael Sonnen vs. Michael Bisping

Odds: (-400 Sonnen /+300 Bisping )

Betting Pick: Sonnen

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In the semi-main event, prolific wrestler Chael Sonnen will square off against British kick boxer Michael “The Count” Bisping in a featured Middleweight showdown. Sonnen is,without a doubt, the most effective wrestler in the UFC, with unstoppable take downs and a devastating top control game. Bisping, for his part, has very technical and accurate kickboxing to go along with underrated jiu-jitsu and developing wrestling. Not one of Sonnen’s opponents has ever been able to stop him from taking them down at will, and the only guys who have been able to survive are the ones with enough jiu-jitsu off their backs to make him pay for his utter lack of submission defense. Bisping’s jiu-jitsu is very underrated, but his guard isn’t his strong suit and with a guy like Sonnen on top of you raining down punches, it is hard to really focus on your technique. If Bisping wants to avoid another disappointing loss at the top of the division he is going to have to score a lot of points on his feet and figure out a way to sweep or escape Sonnen’s positional control, because if he spends three rounds  on his back he has basically no chance here.

Michael Bisping is a very talented and effective kick boxer with great hand speed, accuracy, and technique. While he lacks the one-punch knockout power of many other strikers, he is expert at using his speed and technique to pile on punishment and overwhelm his opponents. Anyone willing to stand and trade with him may not fear his power, but they tend to wind up paying for it when he lands 20 unanswered shots and renders them unable to continue. His wrestling is very much a work in progress, but it continues to improve with every fight. His jiu-jitsu is very effective and underrated from top position or in the scramble, but off his back he is not particularly dangerous, which could prove to be a huge problem against a dominant wrestler like Sonnen.

Chael Sonnen is one of the most dominant wrestlers in the sport’s history, but has made as many waves with his big mouth as he has with his in-fight performances over the last few years. There is no one in the UFC who can match Sonnen’s wrestling, and literally no one has ever been able to stop his take downs over any extended period. Sonnen is viewed by many as a one-dimensional wrestler, which actually sells his boxing short. He is far from a dominant striker but he uses the jab well and can hold his own in the striking, even managing to put a few fists in Anderson Silva’s face during their title match up. Still, his best weapon is his wrestling, and he will always look for the take down first and foremost. From top position, he is almost impossible to dislodge, and he is very good at raining down blows from inside his opponents’ guards and controlling them physically. The only fighters who have ever been able to deal with Sonnen are guys with top-notch submissions off their backs. His submission defense is notoriously terrible, and is the only thing that has kept him from being the most dominant Middleweight in the world. Against Bisping, like everyone else, Sonnen will try for take downs and look to score points and ride the fight out from on top. The only question is whether Bisping has the jiu-jitsu to exploit his one glaring weakness.

This is a nightmare match up for Bisping. He doesn’t have the kind of one-punch power he would need to really hold Sonnen back from shooting for take downs, he doesn’t have the wrestling to keep this fight standing, and he doesn’t have good enough submissions off his back to make Sonnen pay if he gets too aggressive with his ground and pound. I think “The Count” is in for a long night of laying on his back and getting punched, and Sonnen will escape with the easy unanimous decision and some momentum for a possible rematch for Anderson Silva’s title. Sonnen by decision.

Prediction: Chael Sonnen by Unanimous Decision.

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UFC Heavyweight bout:  Pat Barry vs. Christian Morecraft

Odds: (-170 Barry /+140 Morecraft )

Betting Pick: Barry

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In a featured Heavyweight bout, journeyman slugger Pat Barry will look to halt a two-fight skid against Christian Morecraft, who has been having struggles of his own. With Morecraft 1-2 in the UFC and Barry 1-3 in his last four fights, you have to figure these guys are fighting to stay on the roster, especially since UFC just folded Strikeforce’s Heavyweight division into their own. Both of these guys have power on their feet, but Barry is easily the better striker. Morecraft is more well-rounded, but he has an awful chin, so this might get ugly for him.

Pat “HD” Barry is a one-dimensional slugger with a lot of knockout power and not much else. He does throw effective kicks, especially to the legs, but for the most part he stands toe to toe with opponents and absorbs damage to throw haymakers. There is no denying that he has fight-ending power in his hands, but he has no ground game and his technique is sloppy and overly aggressive. He is still a better striker than Morecraft, though, so all he needs to do is keep himself from getting taken down and submitted and he should have enough to get back in the win column.

Christian Morecraft is a talented young Heavyweight with a fairly versatile skill set, but he’s not dominant at anything and he doesn’t handle adversity well at all. His striking is decently powerful, but no match for Barry’s, his technique is sloppy, and he tends to bumrush opponents with no rhyme or reason. He has fairly good wrestling and effective submissions, which he is going to have to use if he wants to survive this fight.

With both of these guys possibly fighting for their careers, they should at least show up motivated. On the feet Barry will chop Morecraft’s legs out from under him and destroy him with power punches. If Morecraft can get to the ground he has more than enough jiu-jitsu to submit Barry, but I don’t think Morecraft will be looking to exclusively grapple and I don’t think he’d be successful if he tried. I don’t think he has a match for Barry’s leg kicks or his punching power, and eventually his fragile chin gets exploited. Barry by T/KO.

Prediction: Pat “HD” Barry by first round T/KO.

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UFC Lightweight bout:  Jim Miller vs. Melvin Guillard

Odds: (-205 Miller /+165 Guillard )

Betting Pick: Miller

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In the main event, prolific grappler Jim Miller will square off against heavy-handed slugger Melvin “The Young Assassin” Guillard in a featured Lightweight bout. These are two of the more exciting young prospects in the Lightweight division, but with both guys coming off disappointing losses, a win here is crucial for them to reassert themselves as potential title challengers in the future. Guillard has shown a huge amount improvement since his stint on The Ultimate Fighter, but was manhandled and out grappled by Joe Lauzon in his last fight; a game plan Miller is more than capable of recreating. If Guillard wants to avoid a two-fight skid and the loss of all his hard-earned momentum, he is going to have to try to keep this fight standing as much as possible, since he will enjoy a big power and speed advantage on the feet.

Melvin Guillard is an extremely dangerous and athletic young fighter with fast, heavy hands and accurate boxing. Motivation was a big question early in his career, but under the tutelage of Greg Jackson he has grown into a serious Lightweight contender. Guillard is a threat to knock out anyone willing to stand with him, but thus far his career has been hampered by his porous takedown defense and lack of any real ground game. In his last fight, Joe Lauzon showed that while he has grown as a fighter, he is still vulnerable to an aggressive, technical grappler. There is no question that Guillard will pick Miller apart on the feet, but to do that he has to find a way to keep the fight standing, because if he has to work off his back underneath Miller he is pretty much done for.

Jim Miller is one of the Lightweight division’s most consistent and effective submission grapplers. A solid wrestler with great jiu-jitsu, Miller is a threat to finish fights and to ground opponents and grind out decisions while neutralizing their offense. On the feet Miller is actually fairly effective and underrated, but he would be foolish to stand with the faster, more powerful Guillard. If he looks for takedowns early and often and presses his advantage on the ground,though, he will be in a great position to hand Guillard his second consecutive loss.

This is a tough fight to call because both guys shine indifferent areas. On the feet, Guillard will work Miller over with superior technique, hand speed, accuracy, and power. If Miller can force this fight to the ground, Guillard is a fish out of water on his back and Miller’s wrestling, jiu-jitsu, and positional control will be far more than he can handle. Ultimately, I think the edge has to go to Miller here. Joe Lauzon illustrated a game plan to beat the “new and improved” Guillard, and Miller is in many ways a stronger, more physical Lauzon with better wrestling. I think Miller should be able to get this fight to the ground early and often, and from top position he can soften Guillard up with ground and pound while waiting for a mistake to capitalize on. Miller by submission.

Prediction: Jim Miller by second round rear naked choke.

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UFC Welterweight bout:  Duane Ludwig vs. Josh Neer

Odds:  (+110 Ludwig /-140 Neer )

Betting Pick:  Neer

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In the semi-main event, striking phenom Duane “Bang” Ludwig will face tough, seasoned veteran Josh “The Dentist” Neer in a featured Welterweight matchup. Ludwig is with out a doubt one of the most dangerous strikers ever to compete in Mixed Martial Arts, but his chin, takedown defense, and ground game are all more than suspect. Neer isn’t as good at anything as Ludwig is at throwing punches, but he is a formidable striker in his own right with a rock-solid chin, good wrestling, and effective submissions. It remains to be seen whether Ludwig’s one outstanding skill will be enough to trump Neer’s superior versatility.

Duane “Bang” Ludwig is an extremely dangerous kick boxer with blazing hand speed, pinpoint accuracy, and a surplus of knockout power. While he is undeniably effective at dolingout punishment on the feet, his defense is lackluster and he has a glass jaw. His takedown defense is horrible and, while he does have some submissions, he is easily controlled on the ground and is not good at all off his back. Basically, Ludwig is a glass cannon and a one trick pony, but that one trick is extremely good. If Ludwig can connect with a power shot, Neer is probably in big trouble, no matter how good his chin is. The question is whether Ludwig can get his punches off before Neer lands a few of his own or forces this fight to the ground.

Josh “The Dentist” Neer is one of the toughest and most well-rounded veterans in the sport. With over 40 professional fights under his belt, Neer has been around the block more than once. Neer is also one of the more versatile fighters at Welterweight, with punishing boxing, effective wrestling,and good submissions to go along with an iron chin and a lot of heart. Against Ludwig, it is entirely possible that Neer has the power and technique to exploit “Bang’s” glass jaw, but he would be silly to even run the risk of getting clipped when he has all the tools to take Ludwig down and brutalize him from top position.

I don’t think this is a very favorable matchup for Ludwig. “Bang” shines when guys are willing to stand in front of him and let him exploit their poor stand up technique, but Neer’s chin and more importantly, his ability to easily take Ludwig down and beat him up, are going to cause Ludwig fits. I don’t think Ludwig is going to be on his feet long enough to showcase his striking, and on the ground this fight is going to be all Neer. Neer by submission.

Prediction:  Josh “The Dentist” Neer by first round rear naked choke.

Note: Neer went from +105 to now the Fav at -130

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On Saturday, February 4, 2012, UFC 142 will air live on Pay Per View from the Mandalay Bay Events Center in Las Vegas, Nevada. In the main event, former Strikeforce Welterweight champion Nick Diaz will face off against “The Natural Born Killer” Carlos Condit for the Interim UFC Welterweight Title. With Georges St. Pierre sidelined due to injury, this match will crown a new king of the 170 pound division for the first time in years. Diaz has proven to be one of the most devastating boxers in the division on top of having world-class jiu-jitsu, but Condit is one of the most complete fighters in the world, so this should be a legendary matchup.

Main Card:

Nick Diaz vs. Carlos Condit

Bodog.com Odds

• Diaz         (-160)
  
• Condit    (+130)
  

Betonline.com Odds

• Diaz
• Condit

Roy Nelson vs. Fabricio Werdum

Bodog.com Odds

• Nelson
• Werdum

Betonline.com Odds

• Nelson
• Werdum

Josh Koscheck vs. Mike Pierce

Bodog.com Odds

• Koscheck
• Pierce

Betonline.com Odds

• Koscheck
• Pierce

Renan Barao vs. Scott Jorgensen

Bodog.com Odds

• Barao
• Jorgensen

Betonline.com Odds

• Barao
• Jorgensen
  

Ed Herman vs. Clifford Starks

Bodog.com Odds

• Herman
• Starks
  

Preliminary Card:

Dustin Poirier vs. Max Holloway

Bodog.com Odds

• Poirier
• Holloway
  

Matt Riddle vs. Jorge Lopez

Bodog.com Odds

• Riddle
• Lopez
  

Alex Caceres vs. Edwin Figueroa

Bodog.com Odds

• Caceres
• Figueroa
  

Matt Brown vs. Chris Cope

Bodog.com Odds

• Brown
• Cope
  

Rafael Natal vs. Michael Kuiper

Bodog.com Odds

• Natal
• Kuiper
  

In the semi-main event, another top Welterweight contender, Josh “Kos” Koscheck, will face off against up and comer Mike Pierce. In a featured Heavyweight bout, grappling ace Fabricio “Vai Cavalo” Werdum will face off against Roy “Big Country” Nelson, a formidable jiu-jitsu black belt in his own right. Rounding out the card are Renan Barao taking on Scott Jorgenson and Matt Riddle facing Jorge Lopez.

Make sure to Check back with us closer to fight night as I will have updated UFC 143 Odds plus Fight Predictions.  And to add a little excitement to your fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds.