Tag: UFC betting

UFC Heavyweight bout:  Brock Lesnar vs. Alistair Overeem

Odds: (+120 Lesnar / -150 Overeem )

Betting Pick: Overeem

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In the main event, former Heavyweight champion Brock Lesnar will meet former Strikeforce Heavyweight champion and K-1 World Grand Prix winner Alistair Overeem in a titanic Heavyweight matchup. These are two of the biggest and most devastating big men in the sport, and with the next shot at Junior dos Santos’ Heavyweight championship on the line, this has all the makings of a great fight and a fitting end to one of the most exciting years in UFC history.

Former WWE superstar and UFC Heavyweight champion Brock Lesnar is a huge physical specimen and a world-class amateur wrestler. His massive bulk and physical strength, coupled with his wrestling technique, make him nearly impossible to deal with when he is in top position. He isn’t a great submission grappler yet but he has added some submissions to his game over the years. Similarly, he isn’t a very technical boxer, but he does have significant power and his massive hands actually make his punches harder to block. There is no question that Lesnar, who is notoriously unfond of taking punches, will try to ground a world-class striker like Overeem almost instantly. Overeem is actually really underrated on the ground, but no one on Earth is going to be effective underneath the landslide of muscles that is Brock Lesnar. If Lesnar can take Overeem down early and avoid getting clipped, he has all the tools to maul him on the ground.

Alistair Overeem is a long-time veteran of both MMA and K-1, but is actually making his UFC debut after capturing Strikeforce’s Heavyweight crown. Overeem is one of the most technical and powerful strikers in the world, with incredible punching and a destructive clinch game. Despite his well-deserved reputation as a striker, Overeem is actually a very underrated wrestler and submission grappler as well. His guillotine choke is especially effective, which is something that Lesnar is really going to have to look out for. It would be ridiculous for Overeem to try and wrestle offensively, but his takedown defense is going to be crucial to his success. On the feet Overeem is going to enjoy a huge advantage in speed, technique, and accuracy against an opponent who does not react well to being punched at all. If Overeem can stuff Lesnar’s double leg attempts, he will pick him apart with relative ease.

Although Lesnar is a powerful puncher and Overeem is an accomplished submission grappler, in many ways this is a classic striker vs. wrestler matchup. On the feet, Overeem will tear Lesnar to shreds. He is faster, more technical, more accurate, has better defense, and has way more effective kicks. On the other hand, if Lesnar can secure takedowns and force Overeem to work off his back, he will probably destroy Overeem with ground and pound. Basically this fight comes down to whether Overeem can start landing punches before Lesnar secures a takedown. When two guys this big and powerful meet, it probably isn’t going to be a very long fight. Ultimately, I think Lesnar’s inability to deal with punches and the fact that he is going to have to telegraph his takedowns pretty severely make Overeem the favorite here. Lesnar is extremely strong and a great wrestler, but if he is having to shoot from way outside and telegraph his shots, Overeem’s wrestling is more than good enough to keep him at bay. I just don’t think Lesnar is equipped to deal with a striker on Overeem’s level who also has some wrestling of his own. I think this is going to look like the first round of Lesnar’s fight with Shane Carwin except about 3 minutes shorter. Overeem by T/KO.

Prediction:  Alistair ” Demolition Man” Overeem by first round T/KO.

Note: Depending on the Odds a bet on Lesnar is worth checking out. If he can take Overeem down early he has a great chance of pounding him out.

To add  a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds. Check out my review of Bodog here…

UFC Lightweight bout:  Nate Diaz vs. Donald Cerrone

Odds: (+250 Diaz / -325 Cerrone )

Betting Pick: Cerrone

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In the semi-main event, Ultimate Fighter winner Nate Diaz will square off against WEC standout Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone in a featured Lightweight bout. Both of these guys are dynamic, experienced veterans with top-notch ground games, and with Cerrone being on a tear since making his UFC debut, this fight could well have implications on the Lightweight title picture. Diaz is riding the momentum of a dominating win over Takanori Gomi and is looking to prove that he is one of the top players at 155 pounds after a disappointing stint at Welterweight, so this should be a very competitive and entertaining bout.

Nathan Diaz, whose brother Nick Diaz is set to challenge Carlos Condit for the Interim UFC Welterweight Title, is a very unorthodox and effective fighter with one of the most prolific ground games in the division. Like his brother, Diaz has very unorthodox boxing that lacks one-punch power, but he is capable of piling on punishment from odd angles and his strikes are difficult to defend against. On the ground, Diaz has world-class submissions from every conceivable position to go along with brilliant sweeps and escapes. He is not a very physical fighter and his wrestling and takedown defense are both somewhat questionable, but he has great judo throws from the clinch and is extremely durable and difficult to finish.

Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone is currently riding a six fight winning streak, with his last being a first-round destruction of versatile German veteran Dennis Siver. Cerrone is a dominant grappler with great wrestling and a remark ability to secure submissions from a variety of positions. He hasn’t finished many opponents with strikes, which causes some people to underestimate his striking prowess. He is very fast, technical, and accurate on the feet, and his crisp,textbook style will providing an interesting foil to Diaz’s less traditional style. There is no question that Cerrone is the more athletic of these two, and his ability to overpower Diaz might be his best tool in this fight.

This has all the makings of a competitive, back and forth affair. These guys have very similar styles and excel in similar areas, so this should be a great fight. In the end, I think Cerrone’s physicalstrength advantage and superior wrestling will be the difference makers here. I think Diaz has better jiu-jitsu,but if Cerrone is scoring points with takedowns and controlling position, Ithink his submission defense is good enough to keep him from getting caught and finished. I think this is going to the judges, and the decision will be narrow, but Cerrone should be able to do enough to pull out the close win.

Prediction: Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone by Decision

To add  a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds. Check out my review of Bodog here…

UFC Welterweight bout:  Jon Fitch vs. Johny Hendricks

Odds: (-260 Fitch / +200 Hendricks )

Betting Pick: Fitch

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In a featured Welterweight match up, up and coming contender Johny Hendricks will face his toughest challenge yet in the form of former title challenger Jon Fitch. Hendricks has only lost once as a professional and has carved out a very successful niche for himself in the UFC, but Fitch’s grinding, wall and stall style has proven extremely difficult for opponents to figure out. Fitch is firmly established as one of UFC’s top Welterweights, so if Hendricks wants a chance at establishing himself as a title contender this is a must-win fight for him.

Johny Hendricks is a tough young striker with very heavy hands and a developing ground game. He has great hand speed and a surplus of punching power to complement his sound technical boxing. He isn’t the most versatile fighter in the world, and his wrestling and submissions are very much a work in progress, but he has handled every step up in competition fairly well on the strength of his striking game. Fitch is the first real top contender Hendricks has had to deal with,and by far the best wrestler he has ever had to face. Hendricks’ only loss came when he was out wrestled by Rick Story. Fitch is more than capable of recreating that game plan, so Hendricks is going to need some tricks up his sleeve if he wants to score the biggest win of his career.

Jon Fitch has long been established as one of the top players in the Welterweight division. A stifling wrestler who uses the clinch no neutralize the action and control the pace of his fights, Fitch is one of the best in the world at imposing his will on his opponents. He is a very effective dirty boxer with great trip takedowns from the clinch and punishing ground and pound. It is easy to criticize Fitch for not being a good finisher or for having a boring fight style, but it is nearly impossible to deny that he is effective at what he does and skilled at doing enough to win fights.

There is no doubt that Hendricks is a talented young fighter with a promising future, but I don’t think there is a way for him to win this fight. Fitch is too tough, too durable,too experienced, and too good at shutting his opponents down. Hendricks has no answer for Fitch’s clinch game or his takedowns, and is going to find himself getting battered on the in side for three rounds. Fitch by unanimous decision.

Prediction: Jon Fitch by Unanimous Decision.

To add  a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds. Check out my review of Bodog here…

UFC Light Heavyweight Championship bout:  Jon Jones vs. Lyoto Machida

Odds: (-550 Jones/ +375 Machida )

Betting Pick:  Jones

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In the main event, Light Heavyweight champion Jon “Bones” Jones will look to make his second title defense against former champion Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida. Jones’ rise to the top of the Light Heavyweight division has been meteoric, and he has not only handled every step up in competition, he has made all of his opponents look like amateurs in the process. Lyoto’s slick counterpunching style, coupled with great takedown defense and a very solid ground game, could provide obstacles Jones has never had to deal with before. It remains to be seen whether or not Machida’s technical prowess will be enough to trump Bones’ freakish athleticism and raw power, but either way it makes for a great style matchup.

Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida roared to the top of the 205 pound division with a slick, defensive striking style and a karate background that gave his standup technique a whole different complexion from most kickboxers. Machida is one of the most difficult fighters in the world to figure out. He is very hard to take down, very hard to hit with punches, and incredibly effective at landing counterpunches while backpedalling and sidestepping. He has pretty good jiu-jitsu as well, but he is unlikely to try and take this fight, or any other, to the ground. Against Jones he is going to want to maintain range, keep pressing his footwork advantage, and wait for Jones to throw lunging punches before countering him with quick shots.

Jon “Bones” Jones has had one of the fastest and most impressive trips up the ladder in the sport’s history. Jones’ unique mix of reach, athleticism, punching power, dominant wrestling, and effective submissions have allowed him to not only move steadily up the rankings, but to leave a trail of embarrassed veterans in his wake. Every time he has stepped up in competition, he has destroyed his opponent. It’s not just that he has won so impressively, it’s that no one has even appeared capable of remotely testing him in any way. Machida’s hyper-defensive striking is a new look, but if Jones can secure a clinch, muscle him to the ground and batter him, it really isn’t going to matter.

Lyoto is a very dangerous and effective striker, but I don’t think he really has anything for Jones. Jones has far more reach and far more punching power, and more importantly Jones is the vastly superior grappler and the much stronger fighter. I think it is entirely possible Jones could manhandle Machida in a purely kickboxing matchup, but there is no reason for him to even try. Jones has all the tools to ragdoll Machida to the ground and unload on him from top position, and I think that’s what he will do. Jones continues his run of dominance with a ground and pound T/KO victory.

Prediction:  Jon “Bones” Jones by third round T/KO.

To add  a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds. Check out my review of Bodog here…

UFC Heavyweight bout:  Frank Mir vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira

Odds: (-285 Mir /+225 Nogueira )

Betting Pick:  Nogueira

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The semi-main event is a highly anticipated rematch between former UFC Heavyweight champion Frank Mir and former PRIDE Heavyweight champion and Interim UFC Heavyweight Champion Antonio Rodrigo “Minotauro” Nogueira. The last time these two met, at UFC 92 in 2008, Nogueira was hampered by a terrible staph infection and Mir completely brutalized him. Nogueira has undergone a variety of surgeries since their first fight and will enter the Octagon healthy and coming off a huge TKO win over Brendan Schaub, and would like nothing more than to prove that their first bout was a fluke. These are two of the Heavyweight division’s most accomplished submission grapplers, but Mir will probably want to stand and trade with Nog and Minotauro will likely be more than happy to oblige.

Frank Mir, a former UFC Heavyweight champion, has re-established himself as one of the top players in the Heavyweight title picture with a string of wins. Still, despite winning two in a row, neither win was particularly impressive. He looked lost for two rounds against Cro Cop before finishing him right as time expired and failed to finish an extremely sick Roy Nelson. A win is a win, though, and three in a row would put Mir firmly in the title mix again. If he wants to beat Nogueira he is going to have to replicate his game plan from the first fight, bullying Nogueira around on the inside with uppercuts and hooks, keeping Nogueira from getting into a groove and using his size and power advantages to keep Nogueira on the defensive.

Antonio Rogerio “Minotauro” Nogueira is a true legend of the sport. A former titlist in both PRIDE and UFC, Nogueira has consistently faced the best Heavyweights in the world for a decade now and has put together a very impressive record. It is clear that years of beatings and injuries have caught up with him and that his once-impregnable chin is no longer as solid as it once was, but most everyone wrote him off against Brendan Schaub and he completely destroyed him with punches. Nogueira’s boxing is some of the most accurate and technical in the division, and his ability to pull off desperation submissions is the stuff of legend. He was outstruck badly by Mir in their first fight, but he was suffering from a staph infection at the time. It remains to be seen how much of his problem was illness and how much was a bad matchup with Mir.

This is a very tough fight to call. It is easy to say that Mir will dominate Nogueira like he did the first time, but that ignores how sick Nogueira was. It is just as easy to blame Nogueira’s loss solely on the illness and underestimate how dangerous and powerful Mir’s boxing really is. I think it is clear that Nogueira is healthier this time and will perform better, but Mir is still a tough style matchup who can control him in the clinch and has substantially more one-punch power. Still, I think the edge here goes to Nogueira, who is a much more technical boxer and has by far the more effective ground game. Mir is the stronger fighter but Nogueira is slicker and more technical, and should be able to score enough points to win a unanimous decision.

Prediction:  “Big Nog” by Unanimous Decision.

To add  a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds. Check out my review of Bodog here…

UFC Light Heavyweight bout:  Tito Ortiz vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira

Odds: (+160 Ortiz /-200 Nogueira )

Betting Pick:  Nogueira

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In a featured Light Heavyweight bout, former Light Heavyweight champion and surefire Hall of Famer Tito Ortiz will square off against PRIDE veteran Antonio Rogerio “Minotoro” Nogueira. Ortiz’s potent double leg and ground and pound made him one of the most dominant fighters in the world during his peak, but time and repeated back injuries have cost him a lot of his former effectiveness. Nogueira was a very promising young fighter in PRIDE, but his UFC stint has been marred by uneven performances and disappointing results. Both of these guys are skilled and experienced, though, and a win here is big for both guys, although for different reasons. This should be a very competitive and exciting bout.

“The Huntington Beach Bad Boy” Tito Ortiz is a true UFC legend and, at his peak, was probably the most dominant Light Heavyweight in the world. Tito’s dominant double leg takedowns, positional control, and ground and pound changed the landscape of the sport forever. His repeated struggles with back injuries have really impacted his ability to quickly change levels over the years, though, so now his takedowns are nowhere near as effective or difficult to defend as they used to be. Still, Ortiz is a durable and experienced veteran with solid boxing technique, and he is still effective from top position even if he is not as good at forcing fights there.

Antonio Rogerio “Minotoro” Nogueira is a well-rounded and skilled veteran who is in the middle of an unprecedented slump, having dropped two in a row. Even more troubling, one of those losses was a manhandling at the hands of Ryan Bader, who Ortiz destroyed with relative ease. Little Nog is a great boxer with solid punching power and impeccable technique with world-class jiu jitsu, but he has had mighty struggles against good wrestlers throughout his career and especially in his last few bouts. If he wants to avoid a third straight loss, he is going to have to press his advantage on the feet while still defending against Ortiz’s takedowns, which is no easy task.

This is a tough fight to call. On the one hand, both guys recently fought Ryan Bader, and Ortiz dominated him while Nogueira got handled. Still, though, styles make fights, and Ortiz can’t stand and box with Nogueira, nor can he consistently sit on top of him in guard even if he can secure takedowns. I don’t think Tito’s wrestling is good enough for him to consistently take Little Nog down, and Nogueira’s jiu jitsu is too good to make sitting on top of him for three rounds a winning strategy. Both of these guys are tough and durable, and this fight should go the distance, but I think Nogueira will be able to consistently out punch Ortiz for the narrow decision win.

Prediction:  “Lil Nog” by Split Decision.

To add  a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds. Check out my review of Bodog here…