Tag: UFC betting

UFC Middleweight bout:  Jason Miller vs. Michael Bisping

Odds: (+140 Miller / -170 Bisping )

Betting Pick:  Miller

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After a contentious season of coaching opposite one another on The Ultimate Fighter, Middleweights Jason “Mayhem” Miller and Michael “The Count” Bisping will finally meet in the main event. This is a very interesting matchup for a variety of reason. For one thing, these two seem to have a genuine disdain for another. For another, their styles are contrasting and it will be interesting to see how they match up. Miller is a prolific submission grappler with good technical Muay Thai, and Bisping is a very technical boxer with ever-improving wrestling and fairly good submissions of his own.

Michael “The Count” Bisping made his way into the UFC after winning the third season of The Ultimate Fighter, and has had a very successful career in two weight divisions. He is a very technically proficient striker, but he has very little knockout power. Still, he is quite capable of picking opponents apart with his hands and beating them to the punch consistently. His wrestling has improved greatly over his career, and he actually has rather good jiu-jitsu, although he would be wise to avoid any extended grappling with Miller. Bisping’s best chance to win this fight is to try and maintain range and use his jab to keep Miller at bay and set up his combos. He has enough wrestling to take Miller down and score points, but if he tries to sit inside Miller’s guard he will most likely pay the price.

Jason “Mayhem” Miller is making his return to the UFC, where he formerly competed as a Welterweight. After washing out of the company, he put together very successful stints in Icon Sport and DREAM, fighting a lot of top-notch opponents and enjoying a lot of success. Miller is a very good grappler who has submissions from every position and very good positioning, sweeps, and escapes. His Muay Thai is technically very solid, but he isn’t the most powerful striker in the world. It is unlikely that either one of them is going to knock the other out, but Miller would probably be wise to avoid boxing too much with Bisping, who is the crisper and quicker puncher. Miller might have trouble shooting in for takedowns on Bisping, but on the ground I think his jiu-jitsu is substantially more effective and he should be able to control Bisping relatively easily. If Mayhem can close the distance in the striking game and use the clinch to beat Bisping up and set up takedowns, he will be able to work Bisping over from top position very effectively.

This should be a great fight. Neither guy has much knockout power but both like to let their hands go and both guys are active and effective on the ground. In the end, I think the edge has to go to Miller. Bisping is the more technical striker but Miller is very effective on his feet as well and I think Miller is the better grappler by a substantial margin. Bisping has underrated jiu-jitsu and might be able to survive on the ground, but I think Miller will control the action and earn a unanimous decision.

Prediction:  Jason “Mayhem” Miller via Unanimous Decision.

To add  a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds. Check out my review of Bodog here…

UFC Lightweight bout:  Yves Edwards vs. Tony Ferguson

Odds: (+260 Edwards /-340 Ferguson )

Betting Pick:  Ferguson

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In a featured Lightweight matchup, long-time veteran Yves Edwards will face tough boxer and Ultimate Fighter winner Tony “El Cucuy” Ferguson, who is riding a 5 fight win streak. Both of these guys like to stand and trade shots and both of them have serious knockout power, so this should be an extremely exciting affair. Ferguson is young and has looked dominant recently, but Edwards is a very talented veteran with extremely dynamic and unorthodox striking, so this is going to be a tough challenge for the young boxer.

Tony “El Cucuy” Ferguson was the Lightweight champion of Season 13 of The Ultimate Fighter. An extremely tough and technically proficient boxer, Ferguson has solid technique, a good chin, and a lot of knockout power in his hands. He doesn’t have much in the way of takedown defense or a ground game, but he has won 5 consecutive fights with stoppages on strikes and against Edwards it is unlikely he is going to have to avoid takedowns anyway. This is most likely going to be a kickboxing match and Ferguson has the technique and the punching power to give Edwards serious problems in that kind of fight.

Yves Edwards, the self-proclaimed master of Thug-Jitsu, is a long-time veteran who will be competing in his 60th fight as a professional. Edwards is a very effective striker who can end fights with punches or kicks and who actually has very good submissions as well. It is rare that Edwards tries to take an opponent down despite his solid grappling, preferring to try and knock them out. His striking is quick, accurate, unorthodox, powerful, and hard to defend against. He is known for flashy strikes, but he is fundamentally very sound as well.

This should be an extremely entertaining bout. Any time you put two skilled strikers with knockout power together it is going to be exciting, especially in the Lightweight division where the speed and athleticism are so impressive. Edwards is more dynamic and has great kicks as well as punches, but Ferguson is younger, stronger, and a more proficient pure boxer. In the end I think the edge goes to Ferguson, who is the more compact puncher and who is younger and fresher. Edwards has been around the block and is always a danger, but Ferguson hits hard and has the more solid chin, which should allow him to earn the T/KO victory.

Prediction:  Tony Ferguson via second round T/KO.

To add  a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds. Check out my review of Bodog here…

UFC Welterweight bout:  Martin Kampmann vs. Rick Story

Odds: (+115 Kampmann / -145 Story )

Betting Pick: Story

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In a featured Welterweight bout, tough wrestler Rick “Horror” Story will square off against well-rounded Danish veteran Martin Kampmann. Both of these guys are great fighters with dangerous skill sets, but both are coming off losses and Kampmann has dropped two in a row, so both guys really need the win here to re-establish themselves as legitimate players in the crowded Welterweight title scene. Three losses in a row would be a disaster for Kampmann, who already dropped a weight class following some mixed results at Middleweight, so this is, in many ways, the most important fight of his career.

Rick “Horror” Story is a very tough, durable and effective wrestler. He has a well-rounded skill set and doesn’t have any really glaring holes in his game, but he isn’t spectacular at anything either. He is a good wrestler with a solid clinch and effective take downs, but he is hardly an elite grappler or one of the best wrestlers in the Welterweight division either. His boxing is serviceable but not overly powerful, and he doesn’t have much in the way of submissions either. Story is a grinder, who wears opponents down with accumulated punching. After dropping his UFC debut, Story put together six impressive wins in a row, but looked ineffective and listless in losing to Charlie Brenneman in his last fight. If Story wants a win here, he is going to need to find a way to neutralize Kampmann’s striking and avoid his submissions on the ground, which is a pretty tall order.

Martin Kampmann is an extraordinary athlete who enjoyed a good amount of success at 185 pounds before dropping down to Welterweight. Since, he has had very mixed results, losing three of his last five fights, albeit against very good competition. Offensively, Kampmann is very dangerous. He is a skilled kickboxer with good wrestling and effective submissions, which makes him a threat to finish fights anywhere they go. Kampmann’s problems are that he tends to turn in inconsistent performances, his chin is suspect, and he doesn’t deal well with anyone who can physically bully him around or out wrestle him. Obviously that could be problematic against Story, a very physical wrestler.

This is a very difficult fight to call. There is no question that Kampmann has more ways to finish this fight than Story, or that Kampmann is the more dangerous of the two offensively. Styles make fights,though, and Story has exactly the kind of skills that will give Kampmann fits. Kampmann is the more dangerous striker and far better on the ground, but Story has much better wrestling which he can use to control the pace of the fight and neutralize Kampmann’s offense. In the end, I think Kampmann is going to suffer another disappointing defeat. Story is adept enough to not get submitted off his back, and will control the action by neutralizing the pace using the clinch and controlling position with take downs. I expect Story to take the unanimous decision here and put Kampmann’s UFC tenure on the proverbial ropes.

Prediction: Rick “The Horror” Story via Unanimous Decision.

To add  a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds. Check out my review of Bodog here…

UFC Light Heavyweight bout:  Mauricio Shogun Rua vs. Dan Henderson

Odds: (-115 Rua /-115 Henderson )

Betting Pick: Henderson

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The main event of the evening features two PRIDE legends meeting for the first time in the UFC as former two-division PRIDE champion Dan “Hollywood” Henderson makes his octagon return against former UFC Light Heavyweight champion Mauricio “Shogun” Rua. These were two of PRIDE’s best 205 pounders, but their paths have never crossed until now. Both of these guys have a lot of knockout power in their hands, but this is a great style match up in that Shogun is the more technical and aggressive striker while Henderson brings dominant wrestling to the table that Shogun can’t match. One important question is who will be able to control the clinch. Henderson’s Greco Roman background and Shogun’s dominant Muay Thai make them both particularly effective from that position, so whoever can establish their game and use the clinch to control the pace of the fight will probably wind up the winner.

Dan “Hollywood” Henderson is a true legend of the sport who has won six of his last seven fights against stellar competition. A former Middleweight and Light Heavyweight champion in PRIDE, Henderson has consistently fought the best in the world in two weight classes for years now. At this point in his career, 205 pounds seems like a much more natural weight for him and he seems to perform much better without the significant weight cut. Henderson is an extremely dangerous fighter, with some of the most devastating power punching in the sport and world-class wrestling to back it up. Henderson has great take downs and is a dominant force in the clinch,using it to control position, land strikes, and set up trips. Against Shogun he is going to need to rely more heavily on his wrestling than he usually does, because Shogun is the faster, more technical, and more accurate boxer. If Henderson wants a win in his return to the UFC he is going to have to find a way to ground Shogun and wear him out with ground and pound, because chances are he will be out boxed and beaten to the punch consistently.

Mauricio “Shogun” Rua is one of the most devastating strikers in the Light Heavyweight division. A former UFC champion who made his name destroying people in PRIDE,Shogun is an extremely fast, technical, and accurate boxer who also has great kicks and a destructive attack from the Muay Thai clinch. His jiu-jitsu is actually quite underrated,but against Henderson that probably won’t matter much since he will want to avoid the ground if he can. On the feet Rua is faster and way more technical, and should be able to beat Henderson to the punch, so he will want to exploit his striking advantage as much as he possibly can. As long as Shogun can keep distance and make this a boxing match, he has the skills to take Henderson apart. Shogun is adept in the clinch,but even so, he might want to avoid giving Henderson a chance to wear him down with wrestling and try to maintain his range as much as possible.

This is going to be a very competitive fight. Both of these guys have the kind of power that ends fights with one shot, so anything could happen. The question is whether Shogun’s aggressiveness and superior striking technique will be able to trump Henderson’s ability to neutralize the action with the clinch and force the fight to the ground. Ultimately, I think this is a bad match up for Rua. He is a great boxer, but he is going to have be wary of Henderson’s looping power punches, and Henderson’s Greco Roman wrestling is going to neutralize one of Rua’s best weapons, the Muay Thai clinch. Henderson has the perfect style to neutralize Shogun’s brutal attack, and I think he will earn the unanimous decision by grounding Shogun, scoring points on the ground, and taking Rua off his game.

Prediction: Dan “Hollywood” Henderson via Unanimous Decision.

To add  a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds. Check out my review of Bodog here…