Tag: UFC betting

UFC Middleweight bout:  Chris Leben vs. Mark Munoz

Odds: (+200 Leben / -260 Munoz )

Betting Pick: Munoz

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In the main event of the evening, tough-as-nails brawler Chris “The Crippler” Leben will face a stern test in heavy-handed wrestler Mark “The Filipino Wrecking Machine” Munoz. Leben is not always the most consistent performer, but he always shows up to fight and he always puts on a show. Munoz isn’t quite as edge of your seat exciting as Leben, but he is extremely consistent and effective, mixing up his heavy power punches with his dominant wrestling very well. Leben does have some submission skills, as he showed by triangle choking Yoshihiro Akiyama, but he is not known as a ground fighter and may have trouble dealing with a guy as large and skilled as Munoz on top of him. On the other side of that coin, Munoz has never had to deal with anyone as tenacious and determined as Leben, who seems to thrive on taking a beating, wading through it, and giving back as good as he is giving. This is an interesting style matchup and should make for a very entertaining main event.

Chris “The Crippler” Leben was undeniably the villain on the inaugural season of The Ultimate Fighter. His mood swings, childish pranks, and verbal assaults on other cast mates made him easily the most hated fighter on the show. Over the years since, though, Leben has grown into a very popular fan favorite because of his never say die fighting style and the fact that it is legitimately impossible for one of his fights to be boring. Leben is a very dangerous slugger who has a lot of power in his hands, but what makes him so dangerous is that he never stops fighting for even a second. He will wade through beatings that are hard to even watch just to land a couple of counter haymakers. His gameplan is always predictable: he will move forward constantly, absorbing any punishment he has to, just to make sure he lands his power punches. When a fight settles into a groove and becomes technical, that is when Leben tends to stagnate. He is at his best during wild, ugly brawls, and he is very good at making his fights turn out that way. The big question mark against Munoz is how well his takedown defense will hold up and how effectively he will be able to fight off his back with a big, technical wrestler like Munoz on top of him.

Mark Munoz, who is currently riding an impressive three fight win streak, is one of the rising stars of the Middleweight division. A skilled wrestler with devastating power punches, Munoz has consistently improved and turned in solid performances. Outside of a head kick knockout he suffered at the hands of Matt Hamill, the only blemish on Munoz’s record is a narrow split decision loss to top contender Yushin “Thunder” Okami. Munoz has a very complete offensive game, with good boxing, dominant wrestling, and a very active and effective clinch. As good a puncher as Munoz is, he probably doesn’t want to stand and trade with Leben, just because that is Leben’s strength and it is ridiculously difficult to put him down with strikes. Munoz has the tools to put Leben on the ground, though, and he would be smart to use them. In a ground fight, from top position, Munoz instantly becomes the favorite here, so he would be wise to force this fight to the mat as early as possible.

This is going to be a very competitive fight. On the feet, both of these guys can do a ton of damage, which makes this a tough fight to call if it plays out in the striking department. The difference maker here is going to be Munoz’s clinch game and wrestling. Both of these guys are tough and solid chins, so this should go the distance, but Munoz’s ability to control position with the clinch and score points with takedowns and ground and pound should be enough to earn him the unanimous decision win in his first main event.

Prediction:  Mark “The Filipino Wrecking Machine” Munoz via Unanimous Decision.

To add  a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds.   Check out my review of Bodog here…

UFC Bantamweight bout:  Brad Pickett vs. Renan Barao

Odds: (+110 Pickett /-140 Barao )

Betting Pick: Barao

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In the semi-main event, well-rounded veteran Brad “One Punch” Pickett will face a stiff challenge in the form of submission phenom Renan “Barao” Nascimento Mota Pegado. Both of these guys have years of experience and well-rounded games, but Pickett is the more versatile of the two while Barao’s ground game is better than any part of Pickett’s repertoire. If Pickett can mix it up well and try to keep this fight standing as much as possible, he will be putting himself in a good position to win, but if this fight goes to the ground it is going to be hard for him to over Barao’s ridiculous jiu-jitsu and positional control.

Brad “One Punch” Pickett is a very skilled and well-rounded veteran who has won 10 of his last 11 bouts. Pickett has solid striking with good power, decent wrestling, and good submissions. There are no huge holes in his game, but he isn’t world-class at any one thing either. What makes Pickett so dangerous is his ability to be competitive with anyone no matter where a fight plays out. Against Barao he will be the more effective striker, but he will be in trouble if and when this fight hits the ground, so he is going to have to defend the clinch and Barao’s takedowns if he wants to make it out of this one.

Renan “Barao” is an extremely accomplished submission grappler who hasn’t lost a fight since his first bout as a professional all the way back in 2005. Since then he has put together 26 wins in a row, nearly half of those coming by submission and another 25% by T/KO. Barao is a master at securing takedowns, holding his opponents down, and working for submissions. He isn’t a world class wrestler, but once fights hit the ground Barao is almost guaranteed to be in control. He has submissions from every position and his ability to sweep and escape can hardly be overstated.

Against Pickett he will enjoy a huge technique advantage in the grappling department, so he will want to try to take Pickett down as early and often as possible.

This is going to be a tough fight for Pickett. He is probably the better striker, but Barao has decent striking too and there is going to be a huge skill gap on the ground that Pickett will have a hard time overcoming. Pickett has been submitted before, and by grapplers nowhere near Barao’s level. I think this one might be back and forth early, but eventually Barao will find a way to get this fight to the ground, where he will take control and eventually submit Pickett.

Prediction: Renan Barao via third round rear naked choke.

To add  a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds. Check out my review of Bodog here…

UFC Welterweight bout:  BJ Penn vs. Nick Diaz

Odds: (-150 Penn /+120 Diaz )

Betting Pick: Diaz

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In the main event of the evening, former two-division champion B.J. “The Prodigy” Penn will square off against former Strikeforce Welterweight champion Nick Diaz at 170 pounds. Diaz was originally scheduled for a shot at Georges St. Pierre’s Welterweight title, but was removed from the fight after failing to appear at two consecutive promotional appearances. Instead, he will fight Penn, who represents a very interesting stylistic matchup. These are arguably two of the best submission fighters in the world at 170 pounds, and both have extremely crisp and effective boxing. In many ways their styles mirror each other, which could either create a barnburner or a stalemate, so it’s interesting to see how this fight will play out.

B.J. “The Prodigy” Penn is one of two fighters that held two-division championships in UFC history. Using a mix of deadly jiu-jitsu from every position and fast, technical, accurate boxing, Penn carved out three separate title reigns for himself, twice in the Lightweight division and once at Welterweight. After a dominant second reign at 155 pounds, Penn ran into current champion Frankie “The Answer” Edgar, who he was twice unable to best. In his last two fights at Welterweight, he looked very impressive, destroying rival Matt Hughes with strikes and then taking top contender Jon Fitch to a hotly contested draw that many observers felt he should have won. There is no denying Penn’s technical acumen, and he has put to rest the questions about his dedication and conditioning that plagued him throughout his career, but this fight presents a number of unique challenges. The most obvious disadvantage is that Penn is smaller, lighter, and has less reach than Diaz, which could prove problematic. Another is that Penn’s strengths are also Diaz’s strengths, so he can’t use his technical prowess to exploit holes in Diaz’s game. He is going into a fight against a bigger guy with almost all of the same tools he has, and that is a dangerous situation for him. There is no question that Penn has the tools to win this fight, but he is going to have to fight smart if he wants to avoid getting bullied around by Diaz and confounded by his notoriously awkward punching style. One important advantage for Penn is going to be his wrestling, which is hugely underrated. Penn’s takedown defense is the stuff of legend, and he actually has pretty good takedowns himself, which means that against a mediocre wrestler like Diaz he will likely be able to control if, when, and how this fight goes to the ground. If Diaz starts to get the best of the striking exchanges, Penn could probably force a ground fight, a luxury Diaz doesn’t have.

Nick Diaz has had a very interesting career. Always known primarily for his grappling ability, Diaz washed out of UFC in his first stint with the company. After leaving the company, he shocked the world by submitting Takanori Gomi, who was at the time considered the best Lightweight in the world, only to have the win taken away when he tested positive for marijuana. After moving to 170 pounds, Diaz had a rough start, winning an awful decision against unheralded Mike Aina and then getting stopped on cuts by smaller boxer K.J. Noons. Since then, though, Diaz has put together an incredible ten fight winning streak, and has grown into one of the most feared strikers at 170 pounds. His ground game is just as good as it always was, but he now prefers to handle his opponents on the feet, and he has proven deadly proficient at it. What makes Diaz so dangerous is how deceptive his striking style is. Unlike most dominant strikers, Diaz doesn’t have much in the way of one-punch knockout power, but his punches are hard to defend because they come from strange angles and the damage tends to pile up fast, overwhelming his opponents. Diaz has fought a number of top-level strikers recently, and has absolutely embarrassed them all. The only real hole in Diaz’s game is his wrestling. He isn’t the most physical guy, his takedowns are mediocre, and his takedown defense is porous. On the feet against Penn, he will enjoy a major reach advantage, so it is unlikely that he will want to force a ground fight anyway, but if it does go to the ground Diaz is probably one of the few guys in the division who can hang with Penn.

This is a very tough fight to call, because these two guys have such similar strengths and fighting styles. In the end, though, I think the edge here has to go to Diaz. Both guys are effective strikers, but Penn’s more orthodox style is easier to defend against than Diaz’s awkward, looping punches, and Diaz will have the advantage in height and reach. On the ground, both guys are so talented that it would likely end up a stalemate, and neither guy is necessarily known for their takedowns despite their world-class ground games. Penn is extremely tough and has a great chin, so he should be able to weather three rounds with Diaz, but I think Diaz will land more significant strikes and earn enough points for the unanimous decision win.

Prediction: Nick Diaz via Unanimous Decision.

To add  a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds.   Check out my review of Bodog here…