Tag: UFC betting

UFC Lightweight Championship bout:  Frankie Edgar vs. Gray Maynard

Odds: (-155 Edgar /+125 Maynard )

Betting Pick:  Maynard

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The main event of the evening features the third meeting between top contender Gray Maynard and Lightweight champion Frankie “The Answer” Edgar. Maynard manhandled Edgar in their first bout, but with the title on the line he was unable to finish what he started and walked away with a draw. Maynard came out of the gate hard last time, and looked ready to end Edgar in the first round, but was unable to close the deal and allowed Edgar to move and jab his way back into the fight. If Edgar wants to keep his title, he can’t let Maynard dominate him early like he did last time, because I highly doubt Maynard will fail to finish this time. The key for Maynard is trying to play to his strengths as much as possible, using his wrestling to take away Edgar’s superior footwork and movement. Either way, with two guys of this caliber who know each other this well, this is sure to be an extremely competitive Main Event.

Gray “The Bully” Maynard is the clear-cut top contender at 155 pounds. Still undefeated as a professional, Maynard gave Edgar all he could handle in their last fight, and already holds a previous win over the champion as well. Maynard is a pretty solid boxer with heavy hands, but his best tool is clearly his wrestling. His takedowns are dominant, and he is excellent at holding opponents down and battering them from the top. Maynard has shown twice now that when he can get his takedown game going, he has the tools to utterly dominate Edgar, and he is also the more powerful puncher of the two. What he has to avoid is getting into a pure boxing match, though, where Edgar’s superior speed, movement, and footwork will confound him. Maynard needs to fight aggressively and turn this into a brawl, where he will have all the advantages, instead of allowing Edgar to get comfortable and start dictating the pace.

Frankie “The Answer” Edgar is an extremely versatile and effective fighter who is well deserving of his Lightweight title. Maynard’s only professional loss was in his first fight against Maynard, but he showed that he has changed in a fighter when they met last time. Edgar was in a huge amount of trouble early after being rocked by a Maynard power punch, and looked close to being finished. Despite that inauspicious start to the fight, Edgar battled back and used his superior footwork and flawless technique to confound Maynard throughout the later rounds. If Edgar wants to avenge his only loss and retain his championship belt, he has to keep Maynard guessing, using his superior footwork to be evasive and set up his jab, which is quite effective.

Maynard clearly won their first fight, a lot of people felt like he won the second one, and he should win this one as well. Edgar is clearly the quicker of the two and the slicker striker, but Maynard hits a lot harder and is a better wrestler. Obviously Edgar can stick and move and score points, but Maynard is the one with all the fight-ending potential, both standing and on the ground. I don’t see him making the same mistake he made last time. Expect him to come out aggressive, using power punches to keep Edgar guessing while setting up his takedowns, and eventually just overwhelming Edgar with takedowns and physicality, working him over on the ground for the T/KO stoppage.

Prediction:  Gray Maynard via fourth round T/KO.

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UFC Featherweight Championship bout:  Jose Aldo vs. Kenny Florian

Odds: (-500 Aldo /+350 Florian )

Betting Pick: Aldo

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In the semi-main event, Featherweight champion Jose Aldo will look to defend his championship against top contender Kenny “KenFlo” Florian. Florian was a contender at 155 pounds as well, and looked dominant in his Featherweight debut, easily handling tough competitor Diego Nunes, but he is going to have his hands full with Aldo, who has the 145 pound division in a stranglehold. Florian is one of the most versatile and dangerous finishers in the world and can end fights both standing and on the ground, but Aldo has looked totally unstoppable in every outing so far so this has all the makings of a very competitive and entertaining bout.

Kenny Florian made his way into UFC after making it all the way to the finals of the original Ultimate Fighter at a remarkable 170 pounds. Considering that he is now fighting at 145 pounds, the success he garnered on the show is incredible. Florian’s base is his jiu-jitsu, but since debuting as a fairly one-dimensional grappler he has grown into one of the most formidable Muay Thai strikers in the UFC. Florian is very aggressive both standing and on the ground, and his superb technique in both areas make him a very dangerous opponent. Florian isn’t known as a dominant wrestler, but he actually has very effective takedowns both from a distance and inside the clinch, which could come in handy against a striker as formidable as Aldo.

Jose Aldo is the undisputed Featherweight king, having dispatched a who’s who of top contenders. Aldo is riding a ridiculous 12 fight winning streak and has not lost a fight since 2005. Aldo’s striking is utterly destructive, and he can put his opponents away with punches, knees, kicks, and a variety of flashy maneuvers reminiscent of Middleweight champion Anderson Silva. As good as Florian is on the feet, Aldo will enjoy a sizable striking advantage. If he can, Aldo will want to keep this fight standing the entire time, because Florian is probably the more effective grappler. That isn’t to say that Aldo can’t survive this fight going to the ground, because he can, it just means that he will be in a much better position if he can make this a kickboxing match.

I think this is a tough fight for Florian. Aldo’s striking is ridiculously good, and he is very effective at keeping fights standing and stopping his opponents’ takedowns. For someone to beat Aldo, they will either need to be able to outstrike him, which Florian can’t, or have the kind of dominant wrestling that will allow them to put him on his back early and keep him there. Unfortunately for Florian, he just doesn’t fit the bill, and he will struggle mightily trying to hang with Aldo on the feet. Eventually I think Aldo will catch him and put him away for the T/KO victory.

Prediction: Jose Aldo via third round T/KO.

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UFC Middleweight bout:  Chael Sonnen vs. Brain Stann

Odds: (-275 Sonnen /+215 Stann )

Betting Pick: Sonnen

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In a featured Middleweight matchup, former title challenger Chael Sonnen will return to action following his steroids suspension against heavy-handed veteran Brian “All American” Stann. Sonnen has proven time and again that he is the Middleweight division’s best wrestler, while Stann has knockout power in both hands, so this is a classic striker versus grappler matchup. Sonnen isn’t useless on his feet, but if this fight stays standing Stann will eventually tag him with huge power punches, whereas Sonnen will easily dominate if he can secure takedowns.

Brian “All American” Stann is a very tough veteran with a surplus of knockout power in his hands. He isn’t a terrible grappler, and actually has fairly decent wrestling, but his gameplan will be to keep this fight standing and try to land haymakers, because he has zero chance of outwrestling Sonnen. If he gets taken down, there is no way he is escaping from underneath Sonnen, so he is going to have to land hard early and watch out for takedowns constantly.

Chael Sonnen’s gameplan is just as easy to predict as Stann’s: he will shoot for takedowns early and often and try to wear Stann out from top position. He has fought basically every opponent he has ever faced with that same gameplan, and not one of them has ever been able to stop him from taking them down. The only opponents who have survived Sonnen’s wrestling are the ones who could submit him from off their back. Stann does have some submissions off his back, but he isn’t accustomed to being underneath dominant wrestlers and his jiu-jitsu isn’t as good as Paulo Filho or Anderson Silva’s. As long as Sonnen can secure takedowns, which he will probably be able to do, he will be in a great position to win this fight.

I don’t think Stann has any answer for Sonnen’s wrestling. Sonnen will take him down at will and utterly dominate him from top position. Stann is a tough guy and Sonnen has been out for a while, so this one will probably go to the judges, but Sonnen should easily control all three rounds for the one-sided decision win.

Prediction: Chael Sonnen via Unanimous Decision.

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UFC Lightweight bout:  Joe Lauzon vs. Melvin Guillard

Odds: (+350 Lauzon /-500 Guillard )

Betting Pick: Guillard

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In what should be a very exciting Lightweight showdown, resurgent “Young Assasin” Melvin Guillard will look to extend his five-fight win streak against prolific grappler Joe Lauzon. Guillard has looked excellent in his last handful of fights, but Lauzon is deadly on the ground, so Guillard is going to need to fight very carefully if he wants to keep up his current momentum.

Joe “J-Lau” Lauzon is an extremely dangerous submission fighter who has never won a fight by decision. The huge majority of his wins are by submission, and he has amassed a very impressive record against good competition. Lauzon’s biggest problem is that he is extremely one-dimensional. His boxing is technically sound but not powerful at all, he isn’t very physically powerful, and his wrestling really isn’t that good. If a fight hits the ground he is as good as almost anyone, but against a physical young fighter like Guillard he may find it difficult to force the fight to the ground. If he is smart he will try to clinch and trip Guillard, which would help keep him out of trouble in the striking and hopefully secure him top position. Guillard’s submission defense is notoriously porous, so if Lauzon can find a way to force a ground fight, he has a great chance of pulling out a win here.

Melvin Guillard, who made his way into the UFC after a failed stint on Season 2 of The Ultimate Fighter, had a very uneven start to his career in the Octagon. After moving to Greg Jackson’s camp in Albuquerque, though, Guillard has steadily turned into an extremely consistent and dangerous young contender. He is strong, fast, and explosive, and he has a huge amount of knockout power in his hands. He uses his physicality very effectively, and is a fairly solid wrestler, both offensively and defensively. His Achilles heel has always been his submission defense, so if he wants to survive this bout he needs to make it his priority to thwart Lauzon’s takedown attempts and keep this fight standing.

I think this is going to be a tough fight for Lauzon. There is no question that he is better than Guillard on the ground, but he is going to be seriously outgunned on the feet and I don’t think his wrestling is good enough to put Guillard down. I think Guillard will overpower and outstrike Lauzon and win a very lopsided decision.

Prediction: Melvin Guillard via Unanimous Decision.

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Current UFC 137 Betting Odds – On Saturday, October 29, 2011, UFC 137 will air live from the Mandalay Bay Events Center in Las Vegas, Nevada. In the main event, surging contender “The Natural Born Killer” Carlos Condit will look to unseat Welterweight kingpin Georges “Rush” St. Pierre. Condit is a versatile and dangerous veteran who can end fights standing and on the ground, but no one in the division has been able to find an answer for St. Pierre’s dominant wrestling, so this is going to be the toughest challenge of Condit’s career.

 Main Card:

Georges St-Pierre vs. Carlos Condit

Bodog.com Odds

• St-Pierre   (-400)
• Condit       (+300)

Betonline.com Odds

• St-Pierre    (-400)
• Condit         (+300)

BJ Penn vs. Nick Diaz

Bodog.com Odds

• Penn   (-125)
• Diaz    (-105)

Betonline.com Odds

• Penn  (-130)
• Diaz    (+100)

Cheick Kongo vs. Matt Mitrione

Bodog.com Odds

• Kongo         (+105)
• Mitrione    (-135)

Betonline.com Odds

• Kongo        (+100)
• Mitrione   (-130)

Mirko Cro Cop vs. Roy Nelson

Bodog.com Odds

• Cro Cop
• Nelson

Betonline.com Odds

• Cro Cop
• Nelson

Hatsu Hioki vs. George Roop

Bodog.com Odds

• Hioki
• Roop

Betonline.com Odds

• Hioki
• Roop

Preliminary Card:

Dennis Siver vs. Donald Cerrone

Bodog.com Odds

• Siver
• Cerrone

Tyson Griffin vs. Bart Palaszewski

Bodog.com Odds

• Griffin
• Palaszewski

Scott Jorgensen vs. Jeff Curran

Bodog.com Odds

• Jorgensen
• Curran

Brandon Vera vs. Eliot Marshall

Bodog.com Odds

• Vera
• Marshall

Ramsey Nijem vs. Danny Downes

Bodog.com Odds

• Nijem
• Downes

Chris Camozzi vs. Francis Carmont

Bodog.com Odds

• Camozzi
• Carmont

In the semi-main event, former Lightweight and Welterweight champion B.J. “The Prodigy” Penn will square off against former Strikeforce champion Nick Diaz in a match between two prolific submission fighters. Rounding out the card are Heavyweight bouts pitting “Big Country” Roy Nelson against Mirko Cro Cop and Matt Mitrione against French kickboxer Cheick Kongo and a featured Featherweight bout between George Roop and Hatsu Hioki.

UFC Bantamweight Championship bout:  Dominick Cruz vs. Demetrious Johnson

Odds: (-525 Cruz / +325 Johnson )

Betting Pick:  Cruz

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In the main event of the evening, Bantamweight champion Dominick “The Dominator” Cruz will look to defend his title against streaking contender Demetrious “Mighty Mouse” Johnson. Cruz is on a ridiculous nine fight winning streak against top-level competition, and in his last outing avenged the only loss of his professional career against former 145 pound champion Urijah Faber. Johnson is also riding a nice win streak, with quality wins over Damacio Page, Norifumi “Kid” Yamamoto, and former champ Miguel Torres, but if he wants to unseat Cruz he is going to need the best performance of his young career. Cruz doesn’t always have the most exciting fights, but he is extremely effective at neutralizing his opponents and keeping them from getting any offense going, so Johnson is going to need to be very aggressive to try to keep Cruz from imposing his will and making this into his kind of fight.

Demetrious “Mighty Mouse” Johnson is a very dangerous and versatile young fighter who has fought his way into title contention through some very tough opponents. After dropping his first WEC bout, Johnson has put together a very solid four fight winning streak, using his mix of solid boxing, decent wrestling, and effective submissions to climb through the 135 pound ranks. Johnson isn’t a particularly overwhelming fighter in terms of offense, but he has a very complete game, puts it all together well, and rarely makes huge mistakes. Against Cruz, his lack of experience could be problematic, as Cruz is an extremely seasoned veteran who is excellent at making opponents fight his kind of fight. Against Miguel Torres, Johnson escaped with a decision despite spending most of the fight on his back. If he lets Cruz dictate pace and position like that, he is not going to be so lucky.

Dominick Cruz is easily the most dominant Bantamweight on the planet right now. Since being submitted by Urijah Faber in 2007, Cruz has won 9 in a row against all the best 135 pounders in the world, including a domination of Faber in his last fight. Cruz isn’t always the most compelling fighter to watch, but there is no denying his effectiveness. He is a very solid boxer with good wrestling and a good ground game. No one will ever accuse him of being a prolific finisher, but he controls the action in his fights and keeps his opponents from mounting any offense with his stifling style. He doesn’t beat his opponents down, he just makes it impossible for them to beat him down while he steadily scores points and secures victories.

I think that Cruz is a bad matchup for anyone. The only type of fighter who is going to beat him is someone who is superlative at one thing and capable of imposing his will and forcing his own gameplan. Johnson is a very talented young fighter, but he lacks the one dominant tool it is going to take to beat Cruz. This fight should go like most of Cruz’s other fights, with Cruz stifling Johnson’s offense, dictating the pace and positioning of the fight, and scoring enough points to earn the decision win.

Prediction:  Dominick Cruz via Unanimous Decision.

To add  a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds.   Check out my review of Bodog here…