Tag: UFC betting

UFC Heavyweight bout:  Pat Barry vs. Stefan Struve

Odds: ( Barry / Struve )

Betting Pick:  Barry

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In what has the makings of a very exciting bout, skilled strikers Patrick Barry and Stefan “Skyscraper” Struve will duke it out in the Heavyweight division. Both of these guys have great punching, but Struve also brings a ridiculously long reach and world-class jiu-jitsu to the table while Barry is the tougher, more powerful puncher and has a substantially better chin. If Barry can keep this fight standing, he should be able to wade through Struve’s long reach and batter him on the inside, but Struve will utterly dominate Barry if this fight makes it to the ground, so this should be an exciting and competitive affair.

Patrick Barry is a tough-as-nails slugger with dynamite power in his hands and solid kicks to go along with it. His style is somewhat one-dimensional, and he doesn’t have much in the way of wrestling or a ground game, but he is a powerful striker who can withstand a huge amount of punishment to land his haymakers. Against Struve he will be giving up a tremendous amount of reach, but his chin is very good which should allow him to eat a few shots to close the distance and bully the wiry Dutchman around on the inside. In a purely standup affair, the advantage goes to Barry despite Struve’s sizable reach advantage. The most important thing for Barry is to not let this fight wind up on the ground under any circumstances, because if it does Struve’s hugely superior jiu-jitsu will be the end of him very quickly.

Stefan “Skyscraper” Struve is a skilled Dutch kickboxer who is very worthy of his nickname. A long, rangy, lanky fighter, Struve has very long reach and good striking technique. Unlike many skilled strikers, especially in the Heavyweight division, Struve brings world-class submissions to the table as well. Struve’s long, lanky frame is one of his biggest strengths and also his biggest weaknesses. His height and reach allow him to land shots from far out, but they also make him easily to physically control once guys get inside his range, and he is not a very physically strong fighter at all. Although Struve is a devastating striker, he has a much worse chin than Barry and in a pure kickboxing match he would be playing with fire. His best bet would be to try and force this fight to the ground and work his submission game, but to do that he is going to put himself in peril of eating a power punch and getting put to sleep.

This is a tough fight to call, but I think the edge has to go to Barry. Struve is far better on the ground, but he prefers to use his kickboxing, and Barry throws harder punches and has a better chin. For Struve to secure takedowns he is going to have to overpower a stronger guy with a lower center of gravity or try to get in close to clinch, which plays right into Barry’s strengths. I don’t see Struve being able to keep Barry at bay with his jab well enough to prevent Barry from bullying him around on the inside and working him over with power punches, and eventually Struve won’t be able to handle the damage. Barry by T/KO.

Prediction:  Pat Barry via second round T/KO.

To add  a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds.   Check out my review of Bodog here…

UFC Welterweight bout:  Anthony Johnson vs. Charlie Brenneman

Odds: (- Johnson / Brenneman )

Betting Pick:  Johnson

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In a featured Welterweight matchup, up and comer Charlie “The Spaniard” Brenneman will look to keep his winning streak alive against tough, physical wrestler Anthony “Rumble” Johnson. Johnson is a massive physical specimen for the Welterweight division, and has the offensive tools and raw physical strength to be one of the most dominant fighters in the division, but he has shown time and again that once a fight starts to go against him he begins to fall apart, and he is very prone to making big mistakes. If Brenneman wants a win here he is going to have to find a way to weather Johnson’s power and aggression while waiting for a mistake he can capitalize on.

Anthony “Rumble” Johnson is probably better suited to the Middleweight division due to his massive size, and he has had trouble making it down to 170 in the past, but his massive size does give him an advantage against other Welterweights. Johnson is a very heavy-handed boxer with good wrestling who uses his size and strength very well to control his opponents. Johnson’s problem is that if he is losing in any way, be it on the feet or in the wrestling, he tends to fold under pressure. He is so used to using his size to dominate opponents and controlling fights that when the tables get turned he does not react well at all. Johnson will enjoy a size and strength advantage against Brenneman and is also probably a better wrestler and striker as well, he just has to be steady, keep the pressure on, and avoid making any mistakes on the ground that might wind up with him getting submitted.

Charlie “The Spaniard” Brenneman is coming off a huge upset win over tough wrestler Rick “Horror” Story. Brenneman was able to outstrike Story and neutralize his wrestling while earning himself the decision win. If he wants to keep his winning streak alive, he is going to have to do much the same thing to Johnson. Johnson is the bigger and stronger fighter, so Brenneman is going to have to find a way to prevent himself from being put on his back while utilizing his speed advantage on the feet to beat Johnson to the punch and keep himself out of trouble. He has the tools to win this fight, but he is going to need a flawless game plan and perfect execution if he wants to overcome his disadvantages.

I think this is going to be a pretty rough fight for Brenneman. Johnson has weaknesses that can be exploited, but Brenneman is not a particularly overpowering fighter, and he is going to have trouble preventing Johnson from imposing his will and bullying him around. Brenneman will make it a fight, but Johnson should be able to outstrike and outwrestle him en route to a unanimous decision.

Prediction:  Anthony Johnson via Unaninmous Decision.

To add  a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds.   Check out my review of Bodog here…

UFC Light Heavyweight Championship bout:  Jon Jones vs. Rampage Jackson

Odds: (-500 Jones /+350 Jackson )

Betting Pick: Jones

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In the main event of the evening, former Light Heavyweight champion Quinton “Rampage” Jackson will look to regain his title against dominant young champion Jon “Bones” Jones. This has all the makings of a very competitive fight. Both of these guys can throw bombs, both can wrestle, and if a foil exists for Jones’ freakish athleticism, it is Jackson’s years of experience fighting the best in the world on two continents. Still, Jones has made some pretty great fighters look like clowns, so Jackson will have to overcome one of his toughest obstacles if he wants to reclaim his belt.

Quinton “Rampage” Jackson has been one of the best Light Heavyweights in the world for years. He is a very skilled wrestler who likes to let his hands go, and he has a surplus of punching power and throws huge haymakers to great effect. He doesn’t really have much in the way of submissions, but his brute force method of escaping submission attempts has proven quite effective for him. This is going to be a tough matchup for Ramapge stylistically. Against Rashad Evans, Jackson was unable to dictate position against the smaller Evans because of Evans’ superior speed and wrestling. He is going to have his hands full trying to control Jones, who is as good a wrestler as Rashad, just as fast, and substantially larger and more dangerous. If Jackson wants to leave with Jones’ belt, he is going to need a career performance and to put every part of his game together perfectly.

The champion, Jon “Bones” Jones, has enjoyed a meteoric rise to the top of the Light Heavyweight division. The only loss of his professional career was a DQ against Matt Hamill in a fight he utterly dominated from open to close. Jones has never even come close to losing a fight, and every time he steps into the Octagon he seems to have improved dramatically. His reach is one of his most important weapons, and no one in the division can match it. He has devastating punching power and very fast hands, and his ability to hit guys from halfway across the octagon makes him someone to truly fear. His wrestling is also extremely good, both with shoot takedowns and from the clinch, and on the ground he has devastating ground and pound and very good submissions. He doesn’t seem to have many holes in his game despite his relative lack of experience, and his physical dominance can hardly be overstated.

Quinton Jackson is still one of the best Light Heavyweights in the world, but Jones is a whole new breed of fighter. Stylistically they are similar in that they are wrestlers who like to throw punches, but I think Jones is the better striker, the better wrestler, better on the ground, and physically superior. Rampage will make it a fight for sure, but in a five round fight Jones just has too many weapons for Rampage to last. Eventually I think Jones will power Jackson to the ground and put him away with punches. Jon Jones retains his Light Heavyweight title by T/KO.

Prediction:  Jon Jones via third round T/KO.

To add  a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds.   Check out my review of Bodog here…

UFC Welterweight bout:  Matt Hughes vs. Josh Koscheck

Odds: (+350 Hughes /-500 Koscheck )

Betting Pick: Koscheck

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In the semi-main event, former Welterweight champion and future hall of famer Matt Hughes will face an extremely tough test in younger, fresher wrestler Josh Koscheck. Matt Hughes was once the most dominant Welterweight on the planet, and even as his career winds down he is still an effective wrestler with underrated submissions and technically sound boxing. Koscheck represents a huge challenge for him though, in that he is a superior striker, substantially younger and in a better place physically, and has the kind of wrestling to stymie Hughes’ offense. It is good to see Hughes still testing himself this late in his career, but he is going to need to show his old form if he wants to actually make this fight competitive.

Matt Hughes is a lock for the UFC Hall of Fame, and for years he defined what it meant to be a dominant champion. His best days are well behind him, but he is still a technically outstanding wrestler with a very good ground game and solid technique on the feet. That said, Hughes doesn’t want to engage in any standup fights with anyone, including Josh Koscheck. His game plan will be the one that made him such a legendary champion to begin with, and he will do his best to outwrestle Koscheck, control him from top position, and put the hurt on him with ground and pound. Whether or not he still has it in him to execute that game plan against a wrestler like Koscheck remains to be seen.

Josh “Kos” Koscheck was a dominant force on the original season of The Ultimate Fighter, and has carved out a very successful UFC career for himself. He has always been a dominant wrestler, but as his career has developed he has actually turned into a very effective kickboxer as well. Koscheck is a very dangerous young fighter who uses his versatility to impose his will on his opponents. The only time he tends to struggle is when his opponents outwrestle him. He gets frustrated and has trouble dealing with being put in disadvantageous positions. Against Hughes he will enjoy a sizable striking advantage, so he will be able to just use his wrestling defensively to keep the fight standing.

At this point, I don’t see a way for Hughes to beat Koscheck. Hughes’ bread and butter is his wrestling, but at this stage of their careers Koscheck is probably the better wrestler, and he is clearly more dangerous on the feet. If Hughes can’t get this fight to the ground reliably he is going to get boxed around on the feet, and I think Koscheck is the one who will be dictating position. I think Koscheck will land punches consistently and confound Hughes en route to a unanimous decision.

Prediction:  Josh Koscheck via Unanimous Decision.

To add  a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds.   Check out my review of Bodog here…

UFC Heavyweight bout:  Travis Browne vs. Rob Broughton

Odds:  (-450 Browne /+300 Broughton )

Betting Pick:  Browne

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In a big Heavyweight matchup, knockout artist Travis “Hapa” Browne will look to halt the winning streak of well-rounded Brit Rob “The Bear” Broughton. Broughton has an extremely veratile skill set, but Browne’s power punching takes people’s heads off, so Broughton is going to have to fight smart.

Travis “Hapa” Browne is an undefeated, heavy-handed up and comer in the Heavyweight division. He has finished every fight he ever won save one, and the only blemish on his record is a draw against French kickboxer Cheick Kongo. Browne is actually a very skilled grappler, but he doesn’t get many chances to showcase it because his punching is so overwhelming. He clearly prefers the standup fight, but he is more than capable of hanging on the ground. His well-rounded skill set and his huge 6′7″ frame make him an extremely formidable opponent for anyone in the world.

Rob “The Bear” Broughton, who trains with Britain’s famed Wolfslair Academy, is a very versatile Heavyweight. He has solid wrestling, powerful punching, and effective submissions. He hasn’t fought the best opponents, but he has gradually stepped up and continued to perform at a high level. Against Browne, he will probably want to put the bigger man on his back to neutralize his reach advantage and avoid his huge knockout punches.

I think Browne is going to be a tough nut to crack. Broughton is very good and has a lot of skills, but Browne’s punching power is just so explosive, and coupled with his reach advantage and his massive size it makes him very difficult to deal with. Broughton does have a chance if he can put Browne on his back and keep him there, but I don’t think Browne will give him the chance. Browne by T/KO.

 Prediction:  Travis Browne via second round T/KO.

To add  a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds.   Check out my review of Bodog here…