Tag: UFC betting

UFC Heavyweight bout:  Ben Rothwell vs. Mark Hunt

Odds: (-340 Rothwell /+260 Hunt )

Betting Pick:  Rothwell

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In the opening bout of the evening, former IFL Heavyweight champion “Big” Ben Rothwell will square off with former K-1 World Grand Prix winner Mark Hunt. Rothwell has had a rough time in the UFC so far, but he is a tough, versatile fighter and a very large guy. Hunt has won only one MMA fight since 2006, but he is so huge and has so much punching power that you always have look for the knockout in any fight he is in.

Ben Rothwell was the best Heavyweight in the now-defunct IFL, using his toughness and versatility to dominate his opponents. His UFC debut was very disappointing, as he was mangled by Cain Velasquez in an underwhelming showing, but he won a solid decision over veteran Gilbert Yvel in his last outing. Rothwell is very well-rounded, with knockout power in his hands, good wrestling, and effective submissions from top position. He isn’t the best in the world at anything, but his skill set is very complete and he doesn’t have any massive weaknesses.

Mark Hunt, who once won K-1’s World Grand Prix, is obviously an extremely formidable fighter. He isn’t much of an MMA fighter, since he lacks any real wrestling or submissions, but he does have very heavy hands, an iron chin, a huge frame. There is no question about what Hunt will try to do here, which is land huge power punches as early as possible before he gasses out. If he gets taken down he is in trouble, because he has no ability to work off his back whatsoever.

The only fighters Mark Hunt can beat at this point are guys willing to stand right in front of him, not move around, and not try to take him down. No one questions Hunt’s ability to knock people out, but he is too fat, too old, and too slow to be able to rely only on his punching against guys with complete offensive skill sets. I think Rothwell will take Hunt down and work him over completely. Rothwell by T/Ko.

Prediction:  Ben Rothwell via second round T/KO.

To add  a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds.   Check out my review of Bodog here…

UFC Lightweight bout:  Nate Diaz vs. Takanori Gomi

Odds: (-280 Diaz /+220 Gomi )

Betting Pick:  Diaz

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In a featured Lightweight bout, Nate Diaz returns to 155 pounds to face off against former PRIDE champion Takanori Gomi. Both of these guys have had mixed results in UFC, and Diaz is coming off two straight losses at Welterweight, but both have dangerous skills and a propensity for very exciting fights, so this could be one of the better fights of the night. Both of these guys have versatile skill sets, but Gomi is the more dangerous striker while Diaz has the more effective ground game, so this is a great style matchup as well.

Nate Diaz has had mixed results in UFC, and is riding a two fight losing streak at 170 pounds, but he is an extremely dangerous fighter, especially at Lightweight. He doesn’t have much in the way of one-punch knockout power, but like his brother Nick he is very good at using his unorthodox striking to wear down opponents. He isn’t the best wrestler, but he does have good judo throws from the clinch and on the ground he is extremely effective from every position. He has submissions from his back and from top position and an excellent ability to sweep and escape disadvantageous positions. He is not a very physical fighter, and can be overpowered, but he has a dangerous offensive skill set and is capable of competing with the best in the world, as he proved when he was robbed blatantly in his fight against title challenger Gray Maynard.

Takanori Gomi was the most dominant Lightweight in PRIDE for years, exciting audiences and destroying opponents with his dynamic striking attack. Gomi is actually also a pretty good wrestler with effective submissions, but by far his best work is done on the feet. There is no question that he has more punching power than Nate Diaz, but he is going to have to be wary of Diaz’s speed. He is also a better wrestler than Diaz probably, but taking this fight to the ground would be a huge mistake. Gomi is going to need to make this a straight up boxing match, avoiding the ground game and the clinch and exploiting his power advantage.

I think this is going to be a tough fight for Gomi. Diaz’s submission advantage nullifies Gomi’s ability to take the fight to the ground, and while Gomi is the more powerful puncher, Diaz is the quicker and more technical of the two on the feet. Diaz’s ability to utilize his reach advantage, beat Gomi to the punch, and maybe score trip takedowns and work from top position should be enough to help him earn the unanimous decision win.

Prediction:  Nate Diaz via Unanimous Decision.

To add  a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds.   Check out my review of Bodog here

UFC Welterweight bout:  Jake Shields vs. Jake Ellenberger

Odds:  (-200 Shields /+160 Ellenberger )

Betting Pick:  Shields

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In the main event of the evening, former Strikeforce champion Jake Shields returns to action against heavy-handed veter Jake “The Juggernaut” Ellenberger after an unsuccessful challenge at George St. Pierre’s Welterweight title. Shields is easily one of the most effective ground fighters in the sport, but he doesn’t have much to offer in the striking department and he tends to founder when he can’t easily outwrestle his opponents. He is going to have his hands full with Ellenberger, a solid wrestler who can get the job done on the feet.

Jake “The Juggernaut” Ellenberger is currently riding a very impressive four fight win streak. His only loss in his last 9 fights was a razor-thin split decision loss against top contender Carlos Condit. Ellenberger is a very complete fighter, with good wrestling and a solid top control game to go along with very dangerous punching. He is good at bruising guys up on the feet and in the clinch, getting top position, and doing damage with ground and pound. Against Shields he is not going to want this fight to go to the ground if he can possibly avoid it, so he is going to need to use his wrestling defensively and try to exploit his advantage on the feet.

Jake Shields, who has been a champion at both Welterweight and Middleweight, is one of the most formidable submission grapplers on UFC’s roster. He is an excellent wrestler and his top game is stifling. He is extremely good at holding position on the ground, he can do significant damage with ground and pound, and his submissions are world class. Shields’ problems arise when he can’t take his opponents down at will and has to stand and box for extended periods of time. He is capable of working off his back but he clearly prefers top position and few of his opponents are foolhardy enough to attempt taking him down for fear of being swept and submitted. What he is going to have to worry about is Ellenberger’s takedown defense and power punching, both of which could confound him greatly.

This is going to be a tough fight for Shields, but he can pull it out. On the feet he will clearly be outmatched, but Ellenberger doesn’t often put guys to sleep with one shot, and Shields is extremely good at finding ways to get fights to the ground. Once there he will work Ellenberger over before eventually catching him with a submission.

Prediction:  Jake Shields via second round guillotine choke.

To add  a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds.   Check out my review of Bodog here…

UFC Middleweight bout:  Alan Belcher vs. Jason MacDonald

Odds: (-300 Belcher /+230 MacDonald )

Betting Pick: Belcher

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In a featured Middleweight bout, well-rounded veteran Alan “The Talent” Belcher will look to overcome talented Canadian grappler Jason “The Athlete” MacDonald. MacDonald is not the most consistent fighter in the world but he lives up to his nickname, using his athleticism to control guys on the ground and look for submissions. Belcher is definitely the better-rounded of the two, but he doesn’t have an answer for MacDonald’s submissions so he is going to need to fight carefully and try to get this done on the feet.

Jason “The Athlete” MacDonald is a very rudimentary striker, but his ground game is excellent. He is quick and strong, and he has very effective wrestling and extremely good submissions. If he can’t get Belcher down early and keep him there, he is going to be in for a long night. He will be outboxed handily by Belcher, so he is going to need to enforce his own gameplan from the opening bell if he wants to leave with a victory.

Alan “The Talent” Belcher is currently riding a two fight win streak, with an impressive submission win over Patrick Cote in his last bout. Cote isn’t one of the most effective fighters in the world at any one thing, but he doesn’t have any glaring holes in his game and he puts it all together very well. He has heavy hands, solid wrestling, and effective submissions. Against MacDonald he would be wise not to test his ground game too much and instead try to keep this fight standing where he will have an advantage in both technique and power.

I think Belcher is the better-rounded of the two, and his ability to control the fight standing and frustrate MacDonald’s takedown attempts should be enough to earn him a unanimous decision. MacDonald will make it a fight, but Belcher is capable of fighting in more places than MacDonald is, and in the end it will be too much. Belcher by decision.

Prediction: Alan Belcher via Unanimous Decision.

To add  a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds. Check out my review of Bodog here…