Tag: UFC betting

UFC Lightweight bout:  Ross Pearson vs. Edson Barboza

Odds:  (+250 Pearson /-375 Barboza )

Betting Pick:  Barboza

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In what has the makings of a very competitive Lightweight bout, prolific Brazilian striker Edson Barboza Junior will put his unblemished record on the line against well-rounded Brit Ross “The Real Deal” Pearson. Barboza has blazed his way to an 8-0 professional record with truly devastating striking, but Pearson is very versatile and has a good ground game that could really test Barboza. Barboza may be better at striking than Pearson is at anything, but if Pearson can use wrestling and ground control to take Barboza off his game he could be well-positioned to add the first blemish to Barboza’s record.

Ross Pearson, a talented Brit who earned a spot in the UFC by winning the Lightweight division of the US vs. UK edition of The Ultimate Fighter, has a very well-rounded game. He is a decent boxer with some power in his hands, and his wrestling and submissions are both quite solid. Against Barboza his offensive grappling is going to be very important, because Barboza is the superior striker in terms of both technique and power. If Pearson wants to end Barboza’s winning streak, he is going to need to put him on his back early and often and score points from the top while working for submissions. In a standup fight he will inevitably be overwhelmed.

Edson Barboza has looked very impressive in winning the first eight bouts of his professional career. In his last fight, he stepped up in competition against Anthony Njokuani and handled him easily, winning by unanimous decision. Pearson represents another step up for him, but Barboza has the tools to succeed at a high level in Mixed Martial Arts. His striking is superlative, and he seems to have an effective ground game as well. His wrestling is a question mark, but he does have some submission prowess to go along with his dynamic striking. Against Pearson, or any other opponent really, he is going to want to keep this fight standing where he can exploit his advantage in power and technique.

Pearson is a step up for Barboza, but I think the Brazilian is ready. Pearson’s wrestling isn’t dominant enough that he is going to completely take over the fight, and Barboza is just too good standing. Barboza by T/KO.

Prediction:  Edson Barboza via first round T/KO.

To add  a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds.   Check out my review of Bodog here…

UFC Welterweight bout:  Dan Hardy vs. Chris Lytle

Odds:  ( even – Hardy /-130 Lytle )

Betting Pick:  Hardy

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In the main event of the evening, dynamic British striker Dan “The Outlaw” Hardy will look to stop his three-fight losing streak against long-time veteran and prolific grappler Chris “Lights Out” Lytle. Hardy may be in the midst of a three-fight skid, but he is still a dangerous striker with knockout power. What Hardy lacks is effective offensive grappling, something Lytle has a surplus of. Both of these guys are capable of testing the others’ weaknesses, so this should be a pretty competitive fight.

Chris “Lights Out” Lytle is a tough and grizzled veteran of the sport with a wealth of experience and a dangerous skill set. He isn’t the most powerful striker out there, but he has decent hands and a solid chin. Lytle’s best work clearly comes on the ground, where he is a prolific submission finisher. Sometimes, though, Lytle likes to throw his ground game to the side and just stand toe to toe with someone and bang. It’s a pretty terrible strategy because he doesn’t have much power and he is much better on the ground, and trying to stand and bang with Hardy is not going to work out well for him. If Lytle wants to win, he is going to have to fight defensively on the feet and use his boxing to set up takedowns. On the ground, Lytle could easily control position and work for submissions, but he has to fight smart to set that game plan up.

Dan Hardy is on the wrong side of an unprecedented three fight losing streak, but that doesn’t make him any less dangerous a fighter. Hardy’s best attribute is easily his striking, which is technically solid and very powerful. He has great hands and mixes kicks in well. He doesn’t have much in the way of offensive wrestling or submissions, but he proved against Georges St. Pierre that he has pretty solid takedown defense, very effective submission defense, and is good at working for escapes from off his back. Against Lytle he is obviously going to want to keep this fight standing, where he will enjoy a technical advantage and a huge edge in punching power. Lytle is tough, durable, and fairly effective on his feet, but Hardy is the more technical of the two and, unlike Lytle, has fight-ending knockout power.

This fight is going to be decided by Lytle’s gameplan. If Lytle fights smart and tries to use his striking to set up some takedowns where he can control position and score points, he should be able to do enough to earn the decision. I think it is much more likely, though, that Lytle will be content with keeping this fight standing, and it will come back to haunt him. Lytle is tough and has a very solid chin, so he should be able to hang in until the final bell, but I think he will oblige Hardy in making this a kickboxing match and get punched around for his troubles. Hardy by decision.

Prediction:  Dan “The Outlaw” Hardy via Decision.

To add  a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds.   Check out my review of Bodog here…

UFC Lightweight bout:  Jim Miller vs. Benson Henderson

Odds:  (-175 Miller /+145 Henderson )

Betting Pick:  Miller

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In the semi-main event, two prolific Lightweight grapplers with well-rounded skill sets will go at it as Jim Miller squares off against WEC veteran Benson Henderson. Henderson was one of WEC’s standouts at 155 pounds, and is coming off a quality win over Mark Bocek. Miller, for his part, is riding a seven fight win streak and his only two professional losses came to Frankie Edgar and Gray Maynard, the two guys duking it out for control of the division. Henderson has all the tools to succeed against anyone, but Miller is well-rounded, experienced, effective, and represents the biggest challenge Henderson has faced thusfar.

Benson “Smooth” Henderson is an extremely exciting, athletic, and effective young Lightweight. He isn’t the most powerful puncher in the world, but his striking is slick and fast, and he uses it very well to set up his takedowns, which are superb. Henderson is very quick on his feet, with great wrestling and a dominant ground game. His positional control, ground and pound, and submissions are all very dangerous, which is going to come in handy against a grappler of Miller’s caliber. Henderson has fought good competition, for sure, but Miller is easily the most versatile and experienced opponent he has had to deal with thusfar, so the biggest thing for him is to not make any huge mistakes that Miller can capitalize on and to depend on his superior strength, speed, and athleticism to help neutralize Miller’s outstanding technique.

Jim Miller has cemented himself as one of the top contenders in UFC’s Lightweight Division, but has thusfar fallen just short of being able to break through into the very top of the division. His only two losses are to Maynard and Edgar, clearly the UFC’s top two Lightweights, and a win here could go a very long way toward putting him in the title picture. Miller is an extremely solid competitor who fights smart and has no glaring holes in his game. His best work is clearly done on the ground, and he is a great wrestler with very good submissions, but he also has technical, accurate boxing to complement his grappling prowess. He isn’t quite as physically impressive as Henderson, but what he lacks in physicality he makes up for in stellar technique and top-level fight experience.

This is going to be a very competitive fight. Both Miller and Henderson are experienced and versatile young fighters, and both of them bring top-notch ground games to the table. Miller has slightly more experience against top-level competition, but Henderson has the edge in terms of physical speed and strength. Ultimately, though, I think Miller is the more complete and steady of the two, and that should be enough to earn him the decision win. Miller has slightly better striking, technically speaking, and a more diverse ground game. Miller by decision.

Prediction:  Jim Miller via Unanimous Decision.

To add  a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds.   Check out my review of Bodog here…

UFC Lightweight bout:  Donald Cerrone vs. Charles Oliveira

Odds:  (even – Cerrone /-130 Oliveira )

Betting Pick:  Cerrone

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In a featured Lightweight matchup, two extremely prolific grapplers will meet as Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone squares off against Charles “Do Bronx” Oliveira. Both of these guys have versatile skill sets highlighted by world-class ground games, so this should be a very competitive bout. Both of these guys can get the job done standing and on the ground, and both are capable of testing each other’s strengths, so this is going to be extremely close and could come down to which guy makes the first mistake.

Charles “Do Bronx” Oliveira is a prolific grappler with only one loss in his professional career. His wrestling is very solid, and his submission skills are world-class. To top it all off, Oliveira is actually a technically proficient and powerful striker. One question mark for Oliveira is his submission defense. He was submitted by Jim Miller, which is far from shameful, but Cerrone is equally capable of testing his submission defense and if Oliveira overextends looking for a submission of his own he might well pay the price.

Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone was one of WEC’s top Lightweights, and has transferred his success nicely into the UFC. Cerrone isn’t the most powerful striker, but he has solid technical boxing to complement his dominant wrestling and dangerous submissions from every position. What makes Cerrone so dangerous is his ability to mix up parts of his game very well and the fact that he can transition from submission attempt to submission attempt until he wears his opponents down and finally catches them.

This is going to be a very close and hard-fought bout. These guys are both world-class fighters and they have very similar skill sets. In the end, this is going to come down to who can score more points on the feet and who can secure the takedowns and control when and how this fight goes to the ground. I expect this fight to go the distance, but I think Cerrone is the slicker of the two and, most importantly, the superior wrestler. When this fight goes to the ground, Cerrone will be in the dominant position, which should allow him to play safe, fend Oliveira off, and score points while working for submissions. Cerrone by decision.

Prediction:  Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone via Decision.

To add  a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds.   Check out my review of Bodog here…