Tag: UFC betting

UFC Heavyweight bout:  Stefan Struve vs. Travis Browne

Odds:  (-110 Struve / -120 Browne )

Betting Pick:  STRUVE

Bet on this fight at Bodog.com

In a featured Heavyweight bout, Dutch giant Stefan “Skyscraper” Struve will look to the put the first blemish on the record of undefeated slugger Travis “Hapa” Browne. Browne is an extremely formidable striker, but Struve’s mixture of absurd height, striking prowess, and top-notch submissions make him one of the least attractive matchups for anyone in the Heavyweight division.

Travis “Hapa” Browne is a serious striker with a surplus of knockout power. Undefeated as a professional, the only flaw on his record is a draw in his last fight against French kickboxer Cheick Kongo. While he does have some ground game, it has rarely mattered thusfar in his career, as very few men are capable of handling his striking power. Browne has knockout ability with both hands and both legs, and likes to push an aggressive pace and stay in his opponents’ faces to create openings for his huge power shots. The big question mark is how well he will be able to handle Struve’s vastly superior reach and whether he can keep Struve from tying him up and getting this fight to the ground.

Stefan Struve is one of the most awkward matchups in the Heavyweight division. He is a skilled striker with tremendous height and reach who also has a world-class ground game. His long, lanky form means that he is not a particularly physical fighter, and it hurts his wrestling game, but he utilizes his reach to great advantage and his long limbs help him lock up seemingly impossible submissions on the ground. Both standing and on the mat, Struve is one of the hardest fighters in the division to defend against. The other side of that coin, though, is that his defense is not particularly great either.

This is an interesting matchup. Browne clearly has the edge in punching power and physicality, but Struve’s long reach, coupled with his massive height, allow him to land punches from what seems like halfway across the Octagon. Browne looked uninspiring in his last outing against Cheick Kongo, and the unique matchup problems Struve’s body presents are going to throw him off his game. That, coupled with the fact that Struve has a serious ground game which he can set up by using his long arms to secure the clinch and work trips, is going to keep Browne from winning this fight. I think Struve will manage to hold Browne at bay on the feet and eventually find a way to get him down, where he will submit him in fairly routine fashion.

Prediction:  Stefan Struve via third round rear naked choke.

• Bet on the UnderDog Struve @-110 odds for the Win.
• Note Struve went from even odds to -110

To add  a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds.   Check out my review of Bodog here…

UFC Light Heavyweight bout:  Quinton Jackson vs. Matt Hamill

Odds:  ( -275 Jackson / +215 Hamill )

Betting Pick:  Jackson

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In the main event of the evening, former Light Heavyweight champion Quinton “Rampage” Jackson returns to action against tough young wrestler Matt “The Hammer” Hamill. Rampage has been one of the top players in the Light Heavyweight division for years, since his stint in PRIDE, but Hamill is a powerful and effective wrestler with constantly improving standup, which makes him a tough matchup for almost anyone. Rampage has been known to turn in inconsistent performances in the past, and if he underestimates Hamill and doesn’t bring his a-game, he could be ripe for an upset here.

Matt Hamill, a fan favorite from Team Ortiz on The Ultimate Fighter, is an inspirational story and a formidable fighter. The only deaf fighter in any major company, Hamill has overcome his handicap to become a top player in UFC’s Light Heavyweight division. A skilled amateur wrestler, Hamill has some of the most powerful and effective takedowns in the division. At first he was a relatively one-dimensional wrestler, but over time his striking has continued to develop to the point that he has solid boxing with heavy hands and even some devastating high kicks in his arsenal. His best work is always going to be with takedowns and ground and pound, and against a superior striker like Rampage that is doubly true, but his improved striking makes it much easier to set up his shots and keep opponents guessing.

Quinton “Rampage” Jackson, one of the top Light Heavyweights in the world, has been fighting the best in the division for years now. Lately he has had some mixed results and turned in a few disappointing performances, but his focus seems to be fully back on fighting after a stint in the movies. Rampage is extremely physically powerful, has an amazingly sturdy chin, and mixes up great wrestling and clinch work with some of the more devastating punching in the division. His power punches are extremely scary, he has great takedown defense, great submission defense, and is great at neutralizing opponents in the clinch and keeping fights standing where he can punish his opponents.

This is going to be a very tough fight for Hamill. Rampage is the bigger and stronger guy, and despite Hamill’s world class wrestling he is going to have a hard time getting this fight to the floor. On the feet, Hamill may have improved a lot, but he is still not on Rampage’s level in terms of technique or power. I think Hamill is going to have to telegraph his takedowns, which is just going to make it easier for Rampage to keep the fight standing, where he has a very clear advantage. I expect Hamill to hang around a while, but eventually Rampage will overwhelm him on the feet and catch him with a big power punch. Rampage by T/KO

Prediction:  Quinton “Rampage” Jackson via second round T/KO. 

To add  a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds.   Check out my review of Bodog here…

UFC Light Heavyweight bout:  Quinton Jackson vs. Matt Hamill

Odds:  ( -270 Jackson / +210 Hamill )

Betting Pick:  Jackson

Bet on this fight at Bodog.com

In the main event of the evening, former Light Heavyweight champion Quinton “Rampage” Jackson returns to action against tough young wrestler Matt “The Hammer” Hamill. Rampage has been one of the top players in the Light Heavyweight division for years, since his stint in PRIDE, but Hamill is a powerful and effective wrestler with constantly improving standup, which makes him a tough matchup for almost anyone. Rampage has been known to turn in inconsistent performances in the past, and if he underestimates Hamill and doesn’t bring his a-game, he could be ripe for an upset here.

Matt Hamill, a fan favorite from Team Ortiz on The Ultimate Fighter, is an inspirational story and a formidable fighter. The only deaf fighter in any major company, Hamill has overcome his handicap to become a top player in UFC’s Light Heavyweight division. A skilled amateur wrestler, Hamill has some of the most powerful and effective takedowns in the division. At first he was a relatively one-dimensional wrestler, but over time his striking has continued to develop to the point that he has solid boxing with heavy hands and even some devastating high kicks in his arsenal. His best work is always going to be with takedowns and ground and pound, and against a superior striker like Rampage that is doubly true, but his improved striking makes it much easier to set up his shots and keep opponents guessing.

Quinton “Rampage” Jackson, one of the top Light Heavyweights in the world, has been fighting the best in the division for years now. Lately he has had some mixed results and turned in a few disappointing performances, but his focus seems to be fully back on fighting after a stint in the movies. Rampage is extremely physically powerful, has an amazingly sturdy chin, and mixes up great wrestling and clinch work with some of the more devastating punching in the division. His power punches are extremely scary, he has great takedown defense, great submission defense, and is great at neutralizing opponents in the clinch and keeping fights standing where he can punish his opponents.

This is going to be a very tough fight for Hamill. Rampage is the bigger and stronger guy, and despite Hamill’s world class wrestling he is going to have a hard time getting this fight to the floor. On the feet, Hamill may have improved a lot, but he is still not on Rampage’s level in terms of technique or power. I think Hamill is going to have to telegraph his takedowns, which is just going to make it easier for Rampage to keep the fight standing, where he has a very clear advantage. I expect Hamill to hang around a while, but eventually Rampage will overwhelm him on the feet and catch him with a big power punch. Rampage by T/KO

Prediction:  Quinton “Rampage” Jackson via second round T/KO. 

To add  a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds.   Check out my review of Bodog here…

UFC Heavyweight bout:  Frank Mir vs. Roy Nelson

Odds:  (-140 Mir / +110  Nelson )

Betting Pick:  NELSON

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In the semi-main event, former Heavyweight champion Frank Mir faces a big challenge, literally and figuratively, in the form of Roy “Big Country” Nelson. This is an interesting fight in that these guys have completely opposite physiques but extremely similar styles. Both guys have slick and effective jiu-jitsu games and technical, powerful striking. This is a very interesting match because these guys seem evenly matched in every way, which could result in a boring stalemate or a very exciting and competitive fight.

Roy Nelson, who made a name for himself in the IFL before dominating his way through The Ultimate Fighter, is a great fighter who doesn’t necessarily look the sport. Nelson’s bulbous physique is extremely misleading, because he is actually quite light on his feet and has excellent cardio. If anything, his weight is something of an advantage, because he has learned to use his considerable bulk as a way of neutralizing opponents on the ground, especially in the crucifix position. Nelson’s jiu-jitsu is extremely underrated, which is important against a skilled grappler like Mir. He also has very effective wrestling, although he tends to favor his striking game a lot of the time. On the feet he is deceptively fast, has good technique, and solid punching power. The biggest flaw in Nelson’s game is that despite having a very complete skill set, he tends to get locked into one aspect of his game instead of mixing it up and keeping his opponents off-balance.

Frank Mir, the former Heavyweight champion, is an extremely inspiring story. Once at the top of the division, Mir’s life and career were derailed by a near-fatal motorcycle accident that sent him right back to square one. After a rocky restart to his career, Mir has worked his way back to being one of UFC’s better Heavyweights. Obviously, Mir’s base is his jiu-jitsu, which is extremely good, especially for a Heavyweight. Unlike most guys his size, Mir is quite comfortable working off his back and has submissions from every position. Recently, though, he has also developed into an extremely formidable striker, with decent Muay Thai and very powerful boxing. The big flaw in Mir’s game is that his wrestling, both offensively and defensively, are decidedly subpar. His jiu-jitsu is very good, but he lacks the takedowns that would allow him to set him up his ground game effectively.

This is an interesting matchup for a lot of reasons. Both of these guys can bang, and both have great submissions on the ground. The biggest difference between the two of them is that Nelson has effective wrestling and positional control, whereas Mir depends on big punches and catching guys with submissions off his back. I think that is going to make the difference in this fight. Both guys have good chins and it is unlikely that either will be able to submit the other, but I think Nelson’s ability to force the fight to the ground and control position from the top, coupled with his more technically proficient striking, should be enough to earn him the unanimous decision win and a moderate upset.

Prediction:  Roy “Big Country” Nelson via Decision.

• Bet on the Underdog Nelson @ +110 Odds.

To add  a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds.   Check out my review of Bodog here…

UFC Middleweight bout:  Brian Stann vs. Jorge Santiago

Odds:  ( -135 Stann /+105 Santiago )

Betting Pick:  Santiago

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In the second bout of the evening, Sengoku standout Jorge Santiago makes his return to the UFC against tough brawler Brian “All American” Stann. Santiago has been on a tear in Japan recently, while Stann is coming off the biggest win of his career against Chris Leben. Santiago is very dangerous and well-rounded, but Stann has devastating striking and an underrated ground game, so this is going to be a rough return to the Octagon for Santiago.

Brian Stann made his way to UFC when WEC folded its heavier weight classes, and has been extremely successful since. A heavy-handed boxer with decent technique and serviceable wrestling, Stann is a dangerous opponent for anyone because he could explode on his feet at any time and can hold his own on the ground. While he is not one of the most technical fighters in the world in any area, he is very tough, very durable, and capable of playing spoiler on any night against almost anyone.

Jorge Santiago washed out of the UFC years ago, but has completely rejuvenated his career in Japan, becoming one of the top Middleweights in the world outside of the UFC. Now, riding a huge wave of momentum and having won 11 of his last 12, he makes his return to the big show. Santiago is very well-rounded, with decent wrestling, good striking, and effective submissions. Not only does he have a versatile skill set, he puts it all together very well, which keeps his opponents off their game and opens up more opportunities for him.

I think that Santiago is just too versatile for Stann. Stann has great striking with a lot of power, but so does Santiago, and Santiago is the superior wrestler and grappler. Stann is very tough and difficult to finish, but I think Santiago’s superior versatility and ground game will earn him the unanimous decision victory.

Prediction:  Jorge Santiago via Unanimous Decision.

• I  like Santiago @+105 to pull off an upset victory.

To add  a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds.   Check out my review of Bodog here…