Tag: UFC betting

UFC Welterweight Championship Bout: Georges St. Pierre  vs. Jake Shields

Odds:  (-500 St-Pierre / +300 Shields )

Betting Pick:   St-Pierre

Bet on this fight at  Bodog.com 

In the main event of the evening, UFC Welterweight champion Georges “Rush” St. Pierre puts his title and his #1 pound for pound ranking on the line against top contender and former Strikeforce Middleweight champion Jake Shields. St. Pierre is widely regarded as the best fighter in the world, and for good reason, but Shields has a very dynamic skill set and one of the most dominant ground games in the sport, so this has all the makings of a classic matchup. Shields is going to have to find a way to neutralize St. Pierre’s dominant top game while also not getting handled in the striking, which is a tall order, but St. Pierre hasn’t had to deal with anyone on Shields’ level in the grappling department who is around his size, so this is going to be an extremely competitive fight.

Jake Shields has been one of the most dominant Welterweights and Middleweights outside of the UFC for years. He looked shaky in his UFC debut, a decision victory over Martin Kampmann, but that was likely a result of his first cut back to 170 in a while. Shields is not a particularly effective striker, but he does have decent defense on his feet. His wrestling is very solid, but he doesn’t have the same kind of dominant takedown game St. Pierre brings to the table. Where Shields really shines is in the submission game, where he is ridiculously effective, and at controlling position from the top once a fight hits the ground. His positioning, control, sweeps, escapes, and submission offense are the best in the world at 170 pounds without a doubt. As good as St. Pierre is on the ground, Shields is going to have to force this fight to the ground, even if it means pulling guard and trying to reverse position, which is not a particularly attractive option against a guy as good on top as St. Pierre is.

Georges St. Pierre is one of the most well-rounded and dominant champions in the history of the sport. He has very dynamic and effective striking, although since suffering an upset knockout loss to Matt Serra he has tended to rely much more heavily on his dominant wrestling and top control game. That may well change against Shields, though, since he will enjoy a massive advantage in the striking department. There is not a better or more effective wrestler than St. Pierre in the sport, despite his lack of an amateur wrestling background. If he has a hole in his game, it is that he overrates his own jiu-jitsu and tends to give up position searching for submissions he isn’t capable of securing, a fact that was glaringly obvious in his win over Dan Hardy. St. Pierre is going to want to play it safe if he wants to keep his dominant win streak alive, which means pressing his advantage on the feet, using his wrestling defensively to keep the fight standing, and being content with controlling top position on the ground and using his ground and pound to wear Shields down as opposed to getting too aggressive and relying too heavily on his jiu-jitsu, which is nowhere near as good as he thinks it is.

This is going to be an extremely difficult fight for Shields. St. Pierre is far quicker and more effective in the standup, and his wrestling is a lot better than Shields’ is, which means that unless Shields wants to try and clinch up and pull guard this fight is not going to the ground unless St. Pierre wants it to. If St. Pierre keeps this fight standing he will pick Shields apart with relative ease, but he clearly prefers to rely on his wrestling, even against dominant grapplers. That strategy worked against B.J. Penn, but against Shields he isn’t going to have the same size and strength advantage. If St. Pierre takes this fight to the ground he very well may be setting himself up to get swept or submitted. Greg Jackson, St. Pierre’s coach, is well known for his effective gameplans and for encouraging his fighters to fight safe, which in this case means keeping the fight standing as much as possible. I think St. Pierre is just too dominant a wrestler and too well-rounded for Shields to deal with. Shields is a tough guy and a great fighter, but I think St. Pierre is going to control him and bruise him up for five rounds en route to a unanimous decision victory.

Prediction:  Georges “Rush” St-Pierre via Unanimous Decision. 

To add  a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds.   Check out my review of Bodog here…

UFC Featherweight Championship bout:  Jose Aldo vs. Mark Hominick

Odds:  (-550 Aldo /+325 Hominick )

Betting Pick:  ALDO

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In the semi-main event, Featherweight phenom Jose Aldo makes his UFC debut as he tries to become the inaugural UFC Featherweight Champion against top contender Mark Hominick. Hominick is a very skilled and well-rounded fighter, but Aldo had WEC’s Featherweight division in a chokehold with his amazing mix of striking and defensive grappling, so Hominick is going to need to find a way to take Aldo off his game if he wants to avoid being the latest entry on Aldo’s ever-growing highlight reel.

Mark “The Machine” Hominick is undeniably one of the world’s better Featherweights, with a very effective and versatile offensive skill set. He is a very aggressive fighter who keeps up a relentless pace and mixes technical and powerful striking with very good submissions. He isn’t a dominant wrestler but he is definitely competent and has good takedown defense. The only real hole in his game is his submission defense, which is responsible for the majority of the losses in his career. Hominick can compete with anyone standing or on the ground, but against Aldo he will probably want to try to close the distance on the feet and work in the clinch or try to get this fight on the ground in order to neutralize Aldo’s dominant striking, especially his leg kicks.

Jose Aldo absolutely tore through WEC’s 145 pound division, completely overwhelming opponents with dominant striking. He has great punching with good accuracy, hand speed, and power to go along with some of the best kicks in the sport. He mixes his punching and leg kicks up very nicely, and that makes it difficult for opponents to defend either since he is so good at exploiting any hole he is given. His offensive ground game has not been displayed that much because he so easily outstrikes most of his opponents, but he has great takedown and submission defense and his ability to punish opponents’ legs tends to take a lot of effectiveness off their takedown attempts.

Jose Aldo has made pretty much everyone he has fought in the last few years look like an amateur, and I don’t see how Hominick is going to be any exception. To beat Aldo, it is going to take someone with good enough striking to hold him off on the feet and dominant enough wrestling to keep him grounded for the majority of the fight, and Hominick doesn’t have either. In a five round fight, I don’t think Hominick is going to be able to keep Aldo from chopping his legs out from under him in the early rounds and then jumping all over him once his movement is limited. Aldo will be able to keep this fight standing, and in the striking game he will demolish Hominick. Aldo by T/KO.

Prediction:  Jose Aldo via third round T/KO.

To add some more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds.   Check out my review of Bodog here…

UFC Light Heavyweight bout:  Randy Couture vs. Lyoto Machida

Odds:  (+250 Couture /-325 Machida )

Betting Pick:  Machida

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In the third bout of the evening, UFC Hall of Famer and former Heavyweight and Light Heavyweight champion Randy “The Natural” Couture squares off with slippery striker and former Light Heavyweight champion Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida. Couture is a true legend of the sport, but he is on the tail end of his storied career, while Machida is in the middle of a 2 fight losing streak after winning the first 16 fights of his professional career. This is an important fight for both guys as well as an interesting style matchup, which makes this a very compelling addition to the card.

Randy Couture is one of the most well-respected and popular fighters in Mixed Martial Arts history. A Greco-Roman wrestler who has continually defied age and expectations, Couture’s is one of the most uplifting stories in all of sports. He is an extremely tough fighter with a lot of physical strength and remarkable cardio, and few fighters in the world are as effective as he is at controlling opponents in the clinch and abusing them with dirty boxing. Despite his stellar wrestling background, Couture’s takedowns have never been overly dominant. He prefers to use the clinch up against the cage to bully his opponents around and wear them down. His boxing is actually quite underrated, and he has solid submissions, but is probably not as good as Machida in either of those areas. As per usual, his best bet is going to be his wall and stall and dirty boxing tactics.

Lyoto Machida, up until recently, looked to be one of the most dominant Light Heavyweights in the world. A slick and effective striker who is notoriously difficult to hit, Machida’s ultra-defensive counter punching style make him an extremely frustrating opponent for anyone. He also has solid defensive wrestling and a very underrated ground game in general. There is no question at all that he is a superior striker to Couture, or that he has better handspeed and footwork. The question is how well he will be able to maintain range and keep Couture from shoving him up against the cage and controlling him physically.

In the end, I think this one favors Machida. Couture’s boxing is pretty good, but Machida is clearly the faster, more mobile, and more effective striker. Couture’s entire career has been a story of defying his age, but eventually time catches up with everyone, and Machida is the best and most complete opponent Couture has had to face in years. I think Machida will continually beat Couture to the punch, and his back-pedaling, mobile style are going to make it difficult for Couture to keep him in one place. Machida should be able to score enough points on the feet and play enough defense in the clinch to earn the unanimous decision win.

Prediction: Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida via unanimous decision.

To add more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds.   Check out my review of Bodog here…

UFC Lightweight bout:  Benson Henderson vs. Mark Bocek

Odds:  (-145 Henderson /+115 Bocek )

Betting Pick:  Henderson

Bet on this fight at Bodog.com

The second bout of the evening sees the UFC debut of Benson Henderson, one of WEC’s top Lightweights, as he faces tough Canadian wrestler Mark Bocek. This is a very interesting matchup in that it is Henderson’s first taste of the big show and because Henderson and Bocek have very similar styles and skill sets. Both guys are great wrestlers with very effective submissions, so this should be a very competitive and entertaining bout.

Benson Henderson was one of WEC’s most exciting and effective 155 pounders. His strength and cardio are unbelievable, and his blend of dominant wrestling, solid striking, and exceptional submissions make him a potent offensive force. While he was upset in one-sided fashion by Anthony Pettis in his last outing, “Bendo” is still a force to be reckoned with, and this is a great opportunity for him to prove it. Henderson can do it all, and while his striking isn’t world-class, it is still a great complement to his dynamic ground game. Bocek’s style is very similar to his, so Henderson is going to need to concentrate on establishing his striking game early and transitioning from the standup to the ground game smoothly and effectively if he wants to make his mark in his UFC debut.

American Top Team’s Mark Bocek is a tough grinder with great wrestling and very dangerous submissions from top position. He is a very durable fighter with great strength and cardio, and he uses his wrestling, top control, and ground and pound to soften guys up and create holes for submissions. Bocek’s standup isn’t particularly technical, but he uses it well to set up his takedowns and get the fight where he needs it to be. He is not as good a striker as Henderson, to be sure, but he is probably stronger and a better wrestler, so he needs to just push the pace and try to keep the fight in close where he can secure takedowns and top position if he wants to spoil Bendo’s debut.

This is a tough fight to call. Both of these guys are tough, well-rounded, and athletic, and both of them have very similar skill sets. Bocek is probably a slightly better wrestler, but Henderson is a better striker and better off his back. I think that this is going to be a very close, competitive fight, but ultimate Henderson’s superior ability to stay out of trouble on his back and score points in the striking will make the difference. Henderson by a narrow decision.

Prediction:  Ben “Smooth” Henderson via split decision.

To add  a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds.   Check out my review of Bodog here…