There is a ton of line movement for Randy Couture vs. Lyoto Machida as some online sportsbooks have decided to jump Machida from a -300 favorite to a (–500) favorite. I don’t know what the books are thinking here, but we recall that this same thing happened a few weeks before George Sotiropoulos fought Denis Siver and that turned out to be a big pay off for Siver believers who opted to go with him as a +300 underdog. Now the books have Couture at as much as a (+300) underdog and that’s a value you can’t beat. Couture has won his last 3 plus he’s got the confidence coming into this one. Machida lost his belt to Mauricio “Shogun” Rua after a rematch occurred when everyone else disagreed with the judges. Then he lost a split decision to Quinton “Rampage” Jackson. Couture is hard to beat off the ground, if Machida can get him there and Couture has displayed way better boxing skills. Going up against the karate master will be a new experience for Couture but he’s worth the dog value bet.
Another fight to keep an eye on is Jose Aldo vs. Mark Hominick for Aldo’s Featherweight title. Hominick’s value as an underdog is decreasing as the lines have moved down to about (+275) from a previous +300 at some books. This is Hominicks’ home town fight and he always brings a solid technical game. He will be hard to knock out and has proven time and time again, he can submit his opponent. Hominick is likely to score points by precisely landing shots. If you believe that Hominick has the home court advantage, place your bets NOW as the lines continue to move and you can lose the bigger value!
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