Tag: UFC betting

Here are my UFC 128 Fight Predictions.  I have put together full write ups for the Main Card and Quick Picks for the Prelims.     Be sure to Visit our Fight Information Page.

Jon Jones over Mauricio Rua via second round T/KO.

• Jones vs. Rua Prediction Page.

Urijah Faber over Eddie Wineland via third round rear naked choke.

• Faber vs. Wineland Prediction Page.

Nate Marquardt over Dan Miller via second round T/KO..

• Marquardt vs. Miller Prediction Page.

Jim Miller over Kamal Shalorus via Decision.

• Miller vs. Shalorus Prediction Page.

Brendan Schaub over Mirko Cro Cop via Unanimous Decision.

• Schaub vs. Cro Cop Prediction Page.

Joseph Benavidez over Ian Loveland via Unanimous Decision.

• Benavidez vs. Loveland Prediction Page.

Preliminary Card Quick Picks

• Luiz Cane over Eliot Marshall via second round T/KO.  
• Ricardo Almeida over Mike Pyle via unanimous decision.
• Gleison Tibau over Kurt Pellegrino via unanimous decision.
• Anthony Njokuani over Edson Barboza via unanimous decision.
• Erik Koch over Raphael Assuncao via unanimous decision.
• Nick Catone over Constantinos Phillippou via second round T/KO.

UFC Light Heavyweight Championship bout:  Mauricio Rua vs. Jon Jones

Odds:  (+160 Rua /-200 Jones )

Betting Pick:  Jones

Bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com

In the main event of the evening, Mauricio “Shogun” Rua will defend his Light Heavyweight crown against surging young contender Jon “Bones” Jones. Jones is a late replacement for injured teammate Rashad Evans, but he has proven he is worthy of a title shot by easily annihilating everyone he has faced so far. Shogun is one of the greatest Light Heavyweights ever, if not the greatest, but Jones is a new breed in terms of physical gifts and natural ability, so this could well be a fight for the ages.

Jon Jones is getting a title shot fairly early into his career, but it is extremely difficult to question his credentials. Jones has the longest reach of any fighter in the UFC, and he is a Light Heavyweight. His wrestling is dominant, and he uses his technique and size to great advantage. His striking is devastating, if not extremely technical, and he has a very effective submission game from top position. There is no question that Shogun is a huge step up in competition for Jones, but the fact that a fighter as young and relatively inexperienced as Jones is going into this fight as a betting favorite says a lot about how much he has shown in terms of pure offensive capability.

Shogun, who dominated PRIDE’s 205 pound division for years before making his way to the UFC, got off to a rocky start. Hampered by injuries, he turned in a series of disappointing performances, including a loss to Forrest Griffin and a horrendous win over Mark Coleman in one of the sloppiest fights in years. Recently, though, with his injuries healed, he has reverted to the form that made him the best Light Heavyweight on Earth to begin with. An absolutely dominant striker with great boxing and punching power who can annihilate opponents in the clinch, Shogun is one of the most feared fighters ever. He also brings an extremely underrated and effective submission game to the table, not to mention very underrated wrestling.

This is an extremely compelling fight. Shogun has proven for years that he is the man at 205 pounds, a brief injury-riddled stint aside. His striking is the best in the division, and light years beyond anything Jones has had to deal with. On the other hand, Jones is going to have a humongous size and reach advantage, and will be by far the physically stronger of the two. So far, no one Jones has fought has been able to prevent him from ragdolling them, and the fact that he can land destructive power punches from about halfway across the octagon thanks to his reach cannot be underestimated. Shogun is the better striker, but Jones has the same ability to end the fight with one punch, and he can do it from a long way out. More importantly, though, is the fact that Jones’ massive size, strength advantage, and prowess at clinch throwing is going to neutralize one of the most effective aspects of Shogun’s game, his Muay Thai from the clinch. If he tries to close the distance with Jones he is going to get launched in the air and wind up underneath Jones eating vicious elbows. If he tries to stay at range and pick his shots he is going to have to defend the takedown and deal with Jones’ superior reach. Shogun is probably still the better fighter overall, but I don’t think he can handle Jones’ superior physicality, reach, size, and strength. Eventually Shogun will wind up on his back with Jones on top of him, and from there there isn’t much anyone can do. Jones will overwhelm the champion with strikes from top position and force the stoppage. Jones by T/KO.

Prediction:  Jon “Bones” Jones via second round T/KO.

To add  some excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.   Check out my review of Sportsbook here…

UFC Bantamweight bout:  Urijah Faber vs. Eddie Wineland

Odds:  (-500 Faber /+300 Wineland )

Betting Pick:  Faber

Bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com

In the semi-main event, fan favorite Urijah Faber makes his much-awaited UFC debut against tough veteran Eddie Wineland. Both of these guys have a wealth of experience and well-rounded skill sets, so this one has the makings of a fight of the night candidate.

Faber once ruled the 145 pound division with an iron fist, but was forced to move down to 135 after a string of disappointing losses. In his first fight as a bantamweight, he looked stellar in submitting Takeya Mizugaki in the first round. 135 is a much more natural weight for him, and he was a top contender a weight class up. Faber has excellent striking, with good punches and kicks, and some extremely effective submissions. His wrestling is also pretty dominant. There are no really glaring holes in Faber’s game, and now that he is no longer giving up a size advantage to most of his opponents, he is truly a force to be reckoned with.

Although he lacks Faber’s star power, Eddie Wineland is no pushover himself. Wineland is very tough, has a great chin and great cardio, and has very effective striking and submissions. His wrestling is also very underrated, and he actually won his last fight with a KO from a huge slam. Against Faber he is going to have to put it all together perfectly and fight a mistake-free fight if he wants to capture the biggest win of his career.

I think Faber is just too much for Wineland. Both guys are very well-rounded, but I think Faber has the better wrestling and submissions, and that is going to make the difference here. If Wineland has a hole in his game, it is his submission defense, and Faber’s superior wrestling and jiu-jitsu should put him in a position where he can capitalize on that weakness. Faber by submission.

Prediction:  Urijah “The California Kid” Faber via third round rear naked choke

To add some more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.   Check out my review of Sportsbook here…

UFC Middleweight bout:  Nate Marquardt vs. Dan Miller

Odds:  (-325 Marquardt /+250 Miller )

Betting Pick:  Marquardt

Bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com

With Yoshihiro Akiyama forced to withdraw from his scheduled bout with top Middleweight contender Nate Marquardt because of the tragedy in Japan, the always-game Dan Miller has stepped up as a late replacement to fight Marquardt. Originally scheduled to face Nick Catone, Miller will now face a much stiffer challenge as he tries to hand Marquardt another loss on short notice. Miller is experienced and versatile, but Marquardt is one of the better fighters in the division and is going to give him a completely different look than Catone would have, so this is a tough fight for Miller and he should be commended for taking such a formidable opponent on so little notice.

Miller has had mixed results in his UFC career, but he is currently riding a 2 fight win streak and his only losses came to top contenders in Chael Sonnen, Michael Bisping, and Demian Maia. Miller has really excellent jiu-jitsu from every position and extremely underrated wrestling to go along with it. What prevents him from being one of the top contenders in the division has always been his standup, which is neither powerful nor technically good. If Miller is going to win a fight, he is going to do it on the ground. Even the most middling strikers are more than a match for him, as Demian Maia proved, and Marquardt is a lot more than a middling striker.

Marquardt has been one of the top contenders at Middleweight for a few years now, but has fallen short in a series of big fights that have kept him from the title. Most recently he was outwrestled, outboxed, and dominated by Yushin Okami in a fight he was favored to win. Still, Marquardt has proven over and over again that he is extremely dangerous both standing and on the ground. His kickboxing is technically solid and he has a lot of punching power, and he has very good submissions, especially from top position and with the guillotine. Marquardt’s biggest problems have come with guys who are able to outwrestle him and force him to work off his back. Whether Miller can implement that gameplan remains to be seen.

I don’t like Miller’s chances here. Taking a big step up in competition like this on such short notice is always dangerous, but the more important fact is that Marquardt is just a better fighter. On the feet, Marquardt will be faster, more accurate, and far more powerful. Miller is a good wrestler, but so is Marquardt, and I don’t think Miller is going to be able to impose his will on Marquardt the way Okami or Sonnen did. I think Marquardt will be able to keep this fight standing, and eventually put Miller away. Marquardt by T/KO.

Prediction:  Nate “The Great” Marquardt via second round T/KO. 

To add a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.   Check out my review of Sportsbook here…

UFC Lightweight bout:  Jim Miller vs. Kamal Shalorus

Odds:  (-245 Miller /+195 Shalorus )

Betting Pick:  MILLER

Bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com

In the opening bout of the evening, prolific grappler Jim Miller faces a stiff challenge in the form of undefeated wrestling dynamo Kamal Shalorus. Miller is very well-rounded and has spectacular submissions, but Shalorus is an extremely dominant wrestler who, despite his lack of submission finishes, has extremely underrated jiu-jitsu of his own. Miller has the added advantage of being more experienced and having fought much better competition, but he is still going to have his hands full with Shalorus’ dominant grappling game.

Kamal Shalorus, an Iranian-born wrestler, is undefeated so far as a professional. The closest he has come to tasting defeat was a draw against dangerous opponent Jamie Varner. Shalorus’ wrestling is extremely formidable, and he is a terror from top position, able to dish out a serious amount of punishment with his dangerous ground and pound. His submission game has not been showcased very much, but it is actually very effective, as he has proved with big wins in Abu Dhabi and elsewhere. His striking is certainly not world-class, but it isn’t horrible either, and Miller isn’t the kind of guy who is going to easily capitalize on that hole in his game.

Miller, a very experienced and effective veteran, is easily one of the top Lightweight contenders in the UFC. A veteran of over 20 fights, his only two losses are to Gray Maynard and Frankie Edgar, the two men who fought to a draw for the UFC Lightweight Title recently. He has never been finished as a professional, and more than half of his wins have come by way of submission. Clearly his ground game is extremely formidable, but he also has serviceable boxing with great defense and rather underrated wrestling.

I don’t think this is a very good style matchup for Shalorus. Miller is the better striker, although neither of them is particularly scary on the feet. Shalorus is the better wrestler, but Miller is also very effective and the gap is much more narrow than it is on the feet. Perhaps most importantly, Miller has submissions from every position on a level Shalorus has never had to deal with, not to mention incredible sweeps and escapes. Shalorus has a tendency to abandon his wrestling anyway, which is not going to help him here. I think Miller will win the striking exchanges, and his superior submission prowess is going to hamper Shalorus’ offense on the ground. I think this is going to be a close, hard-fought, and competitive fight, and neither guy is going to able to finish the other, but Miller should be able to do enough to earn the decision nod.

Prediction:  Jim Miller via Decision.

To add  more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.   Check out my review of Sportsbook here…