Tag: UFC betting

UFC Heavyweight bout:  Mirko Filipovic vs. Brendan Schaub

Odds:  (+190 Cro Cop /-240 Schaub )

Betting Pick:  Schaub

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In the second bout, up and coming Heavyweight prospect Brendan Schaub faces long-time veteran kickboxer Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic. Schaub is huge, freakishly athletic, and constantly improving as a fighter. Cro Cop is clearly on the tail end of his career, but he can still dish out some serious punishment, so he is a very good test of how ready Schaub is for the top competitors in the division.

Cro Cop’s legacy, both in K-1 and Mixed Martial Arts, speak for themselves. At his prime, he was the most feared Heavyweight striker in the world, and for good reason. His punching was devastatingly powerful and accurate, and his high kicks were the stuff of legend. While he has very clearly lost a step or two since his prime, he is still a very skilled striker with solid power. Cro Cop’s biggest problem is that he was never a particularly large Heavyweight to begin with, and his physical decline has coincided with a huge increase in the size of other Heavyweights. Now he is left to try to win fights with diminishing power and technique against ever-larger opponents.

Schaub is, physically at least, the prototype of the new Heavyweight division. He is freakishly large, but extremely agile for a man his size. He has some brutal punching power and pretty good wrestling to go along with it. His first official UFC fight was a disappointing knockout loss to Roy Nelson, but he has rebounded with three straight impressive wins against solid competition. What is most important for Schaub is that he not take Cro Cop lightly, and not allow Cro Cop to get comfortable in the standup exchanges, where is still capable of doing pretty brutal damage.

A few years ago, things might have been very different, but Schaub’s star is rising while Cro Cop’s is falling. Mirko can’t hit as hard as he once could, he’s not as fast as he once was, and Schaub is just way too big and athletic for him to handle at this stage of his career. Schaub is the better wrestler, and he might be the more dangerous striker at this point, at least in terms of knockout power. I think he will give Mirko fits both standing and with takedowns and easily control this fight for a decision win.

Prediction:  Brendan “The Hybrid” Schaub via Unanimous Decision.

To add  more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.   Check out my review of Sportsbook here…

UFC Bantamweight bout:  Joseph Benavidez vs. Ian Loveland

Odds:  ( Benavidez / Loveland )

Betting Pick:  Benavidez

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In the third bout, top 135 pound contender Joseph Benavidez makes his UFC debut against journeyman Ian Loveland. Loveland stepped up on late notice and destroyed Tyler Toner at the Ultimate Fighter 12 finale before deciding to drop to Bantamweight. Now, he is getting thrown into the deep end against the division’s #2 fighter. This is a big step up in competition for him and it remains to be seen how he will handle the weight cut, so this could be a tough fight for him.

Ian “The Barn Owl” Loveland, a Team Quest product, had a rough start to his career, but is currently riding the momentum of a seven fight winning streak. A well-rounded fighter with very good submissions and powerful punching, Loveland has a very versatile and effective skill set. The problem is that Benavidez is easily the best fighter he has ever faced, and he is doing it in a brand new weight division. He is going to need a career performance if he wants to keep his impressive win streak alive.

Joseph Benavidez has lost only twice as a professional, with both losses coming in close fights to current Bantamweight kingpin Dominick Cruz. Benavidez is extremely well rounded, with good boxing, great wrestling, and extremely effective submissions. He has no glaring holes in his game, and even though his striking is the worst part of his arsenal he is still a very technically sound boxer.

Benavidez is just too much for Loveland. Loveland is dealing with a weight cut to 135 for the first time, making a big step up in competition, and facing a guy who is probably even more versatile and well-rounded than he is. Loveland is a tough fighter with good defense on the ground, so I expect him to make a fight, but Benavidez should control all three rounds for a decision.

Prediction:  Joseph Benavidez via Unanimous Decision.

To add  a little excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.   Check out my review of Sportsbook here…

UFC Bantamweight bout:  Joseph Benavidez vs. Ian Loveland

Odds:  ( Benavidez / Loveland )

Betting Pick:  Benavidez

Bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com

In the third bout, top 135 pound contender Joseph Benavidez makes his UFC debut against journeyman Ian Loveland. Loveland stepped up on late notice and destroyed Tyler Toner at the Ultimate Fighter 12 finale before deciding to drop to Bantamweight. Now, he is getting thrown into the deep end against the division’s #2 fighter. This is a big step up in competition for him and it remains to be seen how he will handle the weight cut, so this could be a tough fight for him.

Ian “The Barn Owl” Loveland, a Team Quest product, had a rough start to his career, but is currently riding the momentum of a seven fight winning streak. A well-rounded fighter with very good submissions and powerful punching, Loveland has a very versatile and effective skill set. The problem is that Benavidez is easily the best fighter he has ever faced, and he is doing it in a brand new weight division. He is going to need a career performance if he wants to keep his impressive win streak alive.

Joseph Benavidez has lost only twice as a professional, with both losses coming in close fights to current Bantamweight kingpin Dominick Cruz. Benavidez is extremely well rounded, with good boxing, great wrestling, and extremely effective submissions. He has no glaring holes in his game, and even though his striking is the worst part of his arsenal he is still a very technically sound boxer.

Benavidez is just too much for Loveland. Loveland is dealing with a weight cut to 135 for the first time, making a big step up in competition, and facing a guy who is probably even more versatile and well-rounded than he is. Loveland is a tough fighter with good defense on the ground, so I expect him to make a fight, but Benavidez should control all three rounds for a decision.

Prediction:  Joseph Benavidez via Unanimous Decision.

To add  a little excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.   Check out my review of Sportsbook here…

Strikeforce Light Heavyweight Championship bout:  Dan Henderson vs. Rafael “Feijao” Cavalcante

Odds:  (-205 Henderson / +165 Cavalcante )

Betting Pick:  Henderson

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In the main event of the evening, former two-division PRIDE champion Dan Henderson will look to add another title belt to his resume as he faces off with Light Heavyweight champion Rafael “Feijao” Cavalcante. Cavalcante shocked most pundits by upsetting “King Mo” Lawal to capture the belt, looking extremely powerful in the process, but Henderson has a wealth of experience and an extremely dangerous offensive skillset, so this is going to be a very tough test for the new champion.

Henderson, who at one time ruled over PRIDE’s Lightweight and Middleweight divisions, has had some mixed results since then. He dropped both of his title unification bouts in the UFC before putting together a string of quality wins, then was derailed in his Strikeforce debut in an upset against Jake Shields before returning to form in his last bout by demolishing Renato “Babalu” Sobral. He isn’t always the most consistent performer, but no one can doubt the power behind his looping punches or his ability to physically dominate guys and drag them down from the clinch. Perhaps most importantly, Henderson has been fighting the best in the world in two different weight classes for years now, and that kind of top-level experience cannot be duplicated or underestimated.

Cavalcante, who lacks the same kind of top-level experience Henderson has, is the champion for a reason. His striking is devastating in every range, and he showed against Lawal that his takedown defense and ability to get out of bad positions on the ground is formidable as well. There is no question that Cavalcante is the better striker of these two, especially in terms of speed and quickness, but he has never had to fight anyone as complete and experienced as Henderson, who can test him on the feet with his unorthodox but deadly power punches and also has a wrestling attack substantially more varied and dangerous than Lawal’s.

I think Cavalcante is going to have his hands full here. He is obviously a formidable striker, but Henderson also has one-punch knockout power in surplus. More importantly, Cavalcante has only faced one real top-level wrestler, being Lawal, and Henderson’s wrestling is more varied and effective than Lawal’s, not to mention complemented by vastly superior striking. Henderson has a spectacular chin, also, which is going to make it that much more difficult for Cavalcante. Henderson has been in these big-stage title fights many times before, and that coupled with his superior wrestling and physicality are going to help him wear down Cavalcante in the early rounds before catching him later on when he is in deep water he has never had to tread before. Henderson by T/KO.

Prediction: Dan Henderson via fourth round T/KO.

To add  a little excitement come fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.   Check out my review of Sportsbook here…

Strikeforce Middleweight bout:  Tim Kennedy vs. Melvin Manhoef

Odds:  (-240 Kennedy /+190 Manhoef )

Betting Pick:  Kennedy

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In what has the makings of a very competitive Middleweight bout, combat veteran Tim Kennedy will look to recover from a loss to Ronaldo Souza in his last fight against slumping kickboxer Melvin Manhoef. Kennedy is extremely tough and well-rounded, and while Manhoef has had some poor results lately, he is nevertheless an extremely devastating striker, so this one could provide some fireworks.

Melvin Manhoef is one of the most explosive and dynamic strikers in the sport. An experienced veteran, Manhoef has seen the second round only 7 times in 33 career fights. His striking prowess, and especially his punching power, can not be overstated. Pretty much anyone who tries to stand in front of Manhoef is going to suffer for it, as gigantic K-1 Grand Prix champion Mark Hunt learned in under 20 seconds. Manhoef’s problem is that his takedown defense is terrible, he has no submission defense, and really no ground game at all. He is either going to knock someone out fast or he is going to get planted on his back and destroyed, for the most part.

Tim Kennedy, a U.S. Army veteran with an extremely well-rounded game, has cemented himself as one of Strikeforce’s top Middleweights. He is an effective striker with a good amount of power, but there is zero chance of him surviving more than one or two striking exchanges with Manhoef. Luckily, his best work comes on the ground. He has good takedowns, good ground and pound, and very effective submissions.

This is sort of like the old-school style vs. style matches. Not that Kennedy can’t box, because he can, but because the winner will be determined by how fast Kennedy can execute a takedown. If he gets hit more than a few times by Manhoef he is done for, but if he can get Manhoef to the ground he will dominate him. I expect exactly that. Manhoef just isn’t complete enough to face real grapplers, and he will get taken down and choked out in short order.

Prediction:  Tim Kennedy via first round rear naked choke.

To add  a little excitement come fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.   Check out my review of Sportsbook here…

Here are my UFC on Versus 3 Fight Predictions.  I have full write ups for the Main Card and Quick Picks for the Prelims.     

Martin Kampmann over Diego Sanchez via Unanimous Decision.

• Kampmann vs. Sanchez Prediction Page.

Mark Munoz over C.B. Dollaway via Unanimous Decision.

• Munoz vs. Dollaway Prediction Page.

Chris Weidman over Alessio Sakara via Unanimous Decision.

• Weidman vs. Sakara Prediction Page.

Brian Bowles over Damacio Page via second round rear naked choke.

• Bowles vs. Page Prediction Page.

Danny Castillo over Joe Stevenson via Unanimous Decision.

• Castillo vs. Stevenson Prediction Page.

Preliminary Card Quick Picks

• Takeya Mizugaki over Rueben Duran via Unanimous Decision.  
• Thiago Tavares over Shane Roller via Unanimous Decision.
• Cyrille Diabate over Steve Cantwell via first round T/KO.
• Dongi Yang over Rob Kimmons via second round T/KO.
• Igor Pokrajac over Todd Brown via Unanimous Decision.
• Rousimar Palhares  over Dave Branch via submission.