Strikeforce Welterweight Championship bout:  Nick Diaz vs. Evangelista “Cyborg” Santos

Odds:  (-550 Diaz /+350 Santos )

Betting Pick:  Diaz

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In the main event of the evening, Welterweight champion Nick Diaz will look to defend his title against formidable Brazilian striker Evangelista “Cyborg” Santos. Santos is an incredibly exciting fighter who always comes to brawl, and Diaz has proven more than willing to stand and trade with anyone he faces, so this one has all the makings of a classic brawl.

Santos, the husband of Strikeforce’s Women’s champion who uses the same nickname, is a proverbial glass cannon. His defense and chin are both extremely questionable, but he has great striking, a lot of power, and an intensely aggressive style. He will go at an opponent from the opening bell and will not stop moving forward until one of them is knocked out. His ground game is not even worth mentioning, because he is usually either getting his hand raised or lying unconscious before a fight makes it to the ground.

The champion, Diaz, is an extremely well-rounded and effective fighter. A black-belt in jiu-jitsu under Cesar Gracie, Diaz is a prolific grappler with great submissions. Recently, though, he has preferred to beat his opponents with his very unorthodox and effective striking. Diaz is tough as nails, can take a vicious beating, and is perfectly willing to take shots in order to land devastating counter punches. His striking is deceptive in that it doesn’t look overwhelmingly powerful, but he puts opponents in trouble with volume of punching and by refusing to give them an opening in which to recover.

I think this fight favors Diaz on every level. He is worlds better on the ground, has a much better chin, and his offensive striking is just as dangerous as Santos’. I expect Cyborg to come pushing forward out of the gate like he always does, but Diaz will quickly establish control with superior reach and technical boxing, bruising Cyborg up before finishing him. Diaz by T/KO.

Prediction:  Nick Diaz via third round T/KO.

To add a little excitement come fight night, you can place a bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.   Check out my review of Sportsbook here…

Strikeforce Middleweight Championship bout:  Ronaldo Souza vs. Robbie Lawler

Odds:  (-240 Souza /+190 Lawler )

Betting Pick:  Souza

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In the semi-main event, Middleweight champion Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza will look to defend his title against resurgent knockout artist “Ruthless” Robbie Lawler. Souza is a prolific submission artist with a very effective boxing game, but Lawler is one of the most powerful strikers in the sport, and every punch he throws has fight-ending potential, so this should be a great fight.

Lawler, a UFC veteran who came from Miletich Fighting Systems, is one of the most accomplished knockout artists in MMA history. In his last fight, he absolutely demolished Matt Lindland with a power punch, showing that he still has all of the power and explosiveness he has always been known for. Lawler’s problem is that he is not at all well-rounded. His striking is awesome, but he basically never uses wrestling offensively, his takedown defense is not that spectacular, and his submission defense is even less impressive. He is very, very good at what he does, but the problem is that he doesn’t do very much.

His opponent, Jacare, is exactly the opposite. He has nothing even close to Lawler’s power on the feet, but his kickboxing has become very quick, effective, and technical. His grappling is much more impressive than his striking, and he is one of the best in the world at sweeps, escapes, and submissions. It is entirely possible that he could outstrike Lawler technically, but it would still be unwise for him to stand for any extended period because he lacks anything resembling Lawler’s power and the skill gap between the two is far wider on the ground.

I think this is a good fight for Jacare. His striking is technical enough that he isn’t going to walk into any power punches with his chin stuck out, and his quickness and ability to counterpunch could cause Lawler problems. Either way, he should be able to hang on in the standup long enough to force this fight to the ground, where he will choke Lawler out in short order. Jacare by

Prediction:  Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza via first round rear naked choke.

To add a little excitement come fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.   Check out my review of Sportsbook here…

Strikeforce Heavyweight bout:  Herschel Walker vs. Scott Carson

Odds:  (-500 Walker /+300 Carson )

Betting Pick:  Walker

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In the opening bout of the evening, Pro Football Hall of Famer Herschel Walker makes his second appearance in mixed martial arts as he will look to move to 2-0 against journeyman Scott Carson. Walker is one of Strikeforce’s biggest attractions, while Carson has fought only once in the last 10 years, a first round knockout loss. Carson does have some skills, but you have to believe Strikeforce is trying to give Walker someone beatable.

Carson first debuted as a mixed martial artist all the way back in 1999, putting together an undefeated 4-0 record by 2001. He then took over 9 years off from the sport, returning in 2010 only to be knocked out in the first round by relative unknown Lorenz Larkin. Clearly a 9 year layoff means that Carson is not the dangerous ground fighter he appeared to be in 2000, but it’s a safe bet that he does still have some submission skills and that he will not be a total pushover.

Walker, who is clearly more famous for his football glory than for his fighting prowess, nevertheless looked fairly formidable in his debut fight, albeit against an unknown and unheralded opponent. Walker put his old man strength to good use, bullying his opponent and holding him down while working him over with ground and pound for a T/KO victory.

It seems clear that Walker is being put in a position to win here, since he is one of Strikeforce’s biggest box office attractions. His opponent is a guy who hasn’t won a fight in 9 years and was destroyed in his only fight in a decade. Walker is going to have to avoid sticking his neck directly in a choke or anything like that, but short of a terrible mistake on the ground he will pummel Carson for a one-sided T/KO victory.

Prediction:  Herschel Walker via second round T/KO.

To add a little excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.   Check out my review of Sportsbook here…

Strikeforce Light Heavyweight bout:  Roger Gracie vs. Trevor Prangley

Odds:  (-145 Gracie /+115 Prangley )

Betting Pick:  Gracie

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In the second fight of the evening, UFC veteran Trevor Prangley looks to put the first blemish on the record of jiu-jitsu ace Roger Gracie. Prangley is a very experienced and well-rounded veteran who has fought all over the world, but Gracie is easily one of the most decorated grapplers ever to compete in Mixed Martial Arts, so Prangley is going to have his hands full.

Prangley, who trains at AKA with the likes of Josh Koscheck and Jon Fitch, has been around the block more than once. A veteran of UFC and a variety of other promotions, Prangley has put together a very successful career courtesy of solid wrestling, good standup defense, and dangerous grappling. The problem Prangley faces in this fight is that if he tries to force this fight to the ground like he tends to, he is playing directly into Roger Gracie’s strengths. Prangley is not known for his striking prowess necessarily, but if he wants to come out of this fight with a win he is going to need to spend as much time on his feet as possible.

It would pretty much be impossible to overstate Roger Gracie’s grappling prowess. Gracie has won every major title in both jiu-jitsu and no-gi grappling, from the World Champions to ADCC to the Pan-Ams. Prangley is a huge step up for him in competition, and he has only had three fights ever, but there is no question that Gracie can hang with anyone in the world on the ground.

This is not a particularly attractive stylistic matchup for Prangley. He is not inept on his feet by any means, but he is also not a dangerous striker, and that is what it will take to stop Gracie. Prangley is a ground fighter at the core, but getting on the ground with Roger Gracie does not bode well for anyone, ever. Gracie by submission.

Prediction:  Roger Gracie via second round rear naked choke for a third time in a row.

To add a little excitement come fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.   Check out my review of Sportsbook here…