Tag: UFC betting

UFC Middleweight bout: Nate Marquardt vs. Yushin Okami

Odds:  (-210 Marquardt / +175 Okami )

Betting Pick:  Marquardt

Bet on this fight at  Sportsbook.com

In the main event of the evening, two of the Middleweight division’s top contenders will meet with a title shot on the line, as Nate “The Great” Marquardt takes on skilled Japanese veteran Yushin Okami. Marquardt came up short in his last attempt at gaining the title, while Okami has been seated near the top of the division for years now but has yet to recieve his shot at the belt. Marquardt is one of the most well-rounded and dynamic fighters in the division, but Okami has great hands and dominant wrestling, something Chael Sonnen showed Marquardt is susceptible to, so this should be a really entertaining and competitive bout.

Okami, one of the few Japanese fighters to break through to the top level of competition in the UFC, is an extremely skilled wrestler with very underrated and effective boxing. A winner in 5 of his last six bouts, the only loss Okami has suffered since 2007 came against Chael Sonnen, a man he was incapable of out-wrestling. What makes Okami so dangerous is that he not only has a very good double leg takedown, he has a stifling clinch game and the boxing ability to close the distance and hold his own and then some in the striking exchanges. While he is not the kind of fighter who is going to take over a fight with his striking, it is more than good enough to keep opponents from being able to focus solely on staying out of the clinch and preventing the takedown.

Marquardt, a three-time King of Pancrase who is trying to earn his second shot at the Middleweight title, is an extremely dynamic fighter with a variety of offensive tools in his belt. A solid wrestler with good jiu-jitsu from top position and a striking game that has become very deadly over the last few years, Marquardt is arguably the most well-rounded contender at 185 pounds. He is capable of finishing fights in a variety of ways and has one-punch power as well as very good technique in pretty much every area. The only weakness in his game was exposed by Chael Sonnen, which is that his takedown defense is far from impenetrable and he is not overly effective off of his back, although he did have a good guillotine attempt that looked like it might finish the fight.

This is a very interesting matchup, stylistically. Marquardt is clearly the more explosive fighter and has more finishing capability in every range, but Okami’s skillset plays into the only small weaknesses that exist in Marquardt’s style. Still, I think this fight favors Marquardt. His standup is technically better, faster, and certainly more dangerous, and his ground game is good enough that he should be able to hold Okami off well enough to earn the unanimous decision by staying out of trouble and winning the striking exchanges.

Prediction:  Nate “The Great” Marquardt via unanimous decision.

To add a little excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.  They allow you to start with as little as $20, and you can bet on all of the fights for the night. Check out my review of Sportsbook here…

UFC Middleweight bout:  Alessio Sakara vs. Jorge Rivera

Odds:  (-110 Sakara /-120 Rivera )

Betting Pick:  Rivera

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In a fight that has fight of the night and knockout of the night potential, two tough Middleweight brawlers will try to distance themselves from the 185 pound pack as Alessio Sakara faces off with long-time veteran and Ultimate Fighter “Comeback” alum Jorge Rivera. Both of these guys have good striking, heavy hands, and a willingness to trade shots, so this should be an action-packed affair to say the least.

Alessio “Legionarius” Sakara, a skilled striker who had an inauspicious beginning to his UFC career, has flown under the radar lately despite going 4-1 since switching his training camp up and moving to American Top Team. Sakara’s striking is very technical, with good handspeed, accuracy, and power, and his jiu-jitsu game, while not world class, is actually fairly solid. He has a pretty good chin as well, which is going to come in handy against a guy as heavy-handed as Rivera.

Rivera, who has won six of his last eight fights, is a very heavy-handed slugger with a solid chin and a willingness to push forward and let his hands go with reckless abandon. A winner in three of his last four, Rivera has become a mainstay in the middle of the 185 pound division, and a win against the surging Sakara could help him advance his position and get him some bigger fights.

The easiest prediction to make about this fight is that it will not go the distance. Both guys have great striking and knockout power, and both guys are more than willing to stand and trade shots. This is the kind of fight that either guy could win, because both of them can be knocked out and both of them have the ability to put guys to sleep. In the end, though, I would say that Rivera is the more durable and heavy-handed of the two, and should take this one by T/KO.

Prediction:  Jorge Rivera via second round T/KO.

To add a little excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.  They allow you to start with as little as $20, and you can bet on all of the fights for the night. Check out my review of Sportsbook here…

UFC Light Heavyweight bout:  Krzysztof Soszynski vs. Goran Reljic

Odds:  (-110 Soszynski /-120 Reljic )

Betting Pick:  Soszynski

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In a very important fight for both of their UFC futures, IFL veteran “The Polish Experiment” Krzysztof Soszynski and Goran Reljic will meet at 205 pounds. Both guys have dropped two of their last three, and with roster cuts probably coming in the wake of UFC’s merger with WEC, a win here is a must for both men if they want to remain under contract.

Goran Reljic, a skilled grappler who also has decent striking, looked impressive in his UFC debut, knocking out Wilson Gouveia. Since then though, he has dropped two in a row, which puts his future with the company in serious jeopardy. His submissions are very good and he has a lot of punching power, but he is hampered by a lack of takedowns which prevents him from imposing his will on the ground. Still, he is a threat to finish anywhere the fight goes, and that makes him a dangerous opponent.

Soszynski, who found his way to the UFC after the IFL folded, is also a fairly well-rounded guy. He doesn’t work well off his back, but his submissions from top position are very good and he has heavy hands and good boxing. His biggest advantage going into this fight is that he is clearly a better wrestler than Reljic, which means that he will be the one controlling position on the ground. His wrestling is also going to make it harder for Reljic to commit to power punches in the standup.

I think this matchup favors Soszynski stylistically. Both guys have serviceable boxing with good power to go with good submission games, but Soszynski’s superior wrestling is going to make the difference. Reljic is unlikely to submit Soszynski off his back, and “The Polish Experiment” has good ground and pound that he should be able to use to earn the unanimous decision.

Prediction:  Krzysztof Soszynski via unanimous decision.

To add a little excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.  They allow you to start with as little as $20, and you can bet on all of the fights for the night. Check out my review of Sportsbook here…

UFC Welterweight bout:  Amir Sadollah vs. Peter Sobotta

Odds:  ( Sadollah  / Sobotta )

Betting Pick:  Sadollah

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In what promises to be a competitive Welterweight bout, Ultimate Fighter Season 7 winner Amir Sadollah will face off with well-rounded German Peter Sobotta. Sadollah has looked decent since winning the reality show, while Sobotta has dropped both of his UFC fights so far. Still, Sobotta has a well-rounded skill set, so Sadollah would do best not to overlook him.

Sobotta, who was easily defeated in his only two octagon appearances, is nevertheless a well-rounded fighter with solid punching power and good submissions. While his level of competition has not been high, he earned his spot in the UFC with a number of impressive performances on smaller shows. He doesn’t have any huge holes in his game, but he is not very good at anything either, which makes him a fairly safe opponent for Sadollah.

Sadollah, who surprised many pundits by capturing the Ultimate Fighter title after armbarring heavy favorite CB Dolloway twice, has looked fairly solid since. A dangerous grappler with constantly improving Muay Thai, Sadollah is pretty well-rounded. What keeps him from being very dangerous is his total lack of knockout power and his lack of any wrestling at all.

This fight is clearly designed for Sadollah to win. He has better striking and better grappling than Sobotta by a long shot, and will batter him around for three rounds for an easy decision.

Prediction:  Amir Sadollah via unanimous Decision.

To add a little excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.  They allow you to start with as little as $20, and you can bet on all of the fights for the night. Check out my review of Sportsbook here…