Tag: UFC betting

UFC Welterweight bout:  Jake Shields vs. Martin Kampmann

Odds:  ( -215 Shields / +175 Kampmann )

Betting Pick:  Jake Shields

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In the semi-main event, former Strikeforce Middleweight champion Jake Shields makes his UFC debut, and his return to the Welterweight division, against top contender Martin Kampmann. Shields is undoubtedly one of the premier ground fighters in the world, but doesn’t have much standup to back it up, while Kampmann is one of the most well-rounded guys in the division. With the winner of this fight likely recieving a title shot, this is one of the most important fights of both men’s careers.

Kampmann, who originally made a name for himself at Middleweight, has looked like a monster since making the move to 170. Very few fighters at any weight are as well-rounded as Kampmann, who has great wrestling, great submissions, and great kickboxing. There are no huge holes in his game at all, and while he may not be the most dominant guy in the world at any one thing, his ability to fight in any range and put a complete fight game together is nearly unmatched.

Unlike Kampmann, who thrives in every area, Jake Shields is a specialist. His standup is rudimentary at best, but his wrestling and especially his submissions are extremely difficult for anyone to deal with. In his last fight he pulled off a spectacular upset against Dan Henderson, surviving a vicious first round beating and then coming back and dominating the last four rounds on the ground to earn the decision and the Strikeforce title.

This fight is going to come down to how effectively Shields can take the fight to the ground and keep it there. Kampmann will absolutely light him up on the feet, but if Shields can work from top position on the ground he should be able to keep Kampmann off his game and earn the decision. After the way he handled Henderson at a higher weight, I think Shields has to be considered the favorite here. Off his back is the one area where Kampmann isn’t as dangerous, and Shields has the ability to put him on his back. Shields should control this one on the ground for an uneventful decision.

Prediction:  Jake Shields via unanimous decision.

To add a little excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.  They allow you to start with as little as $20, and you can bet on all of the fights for the night. Check out my review of Sportsbook here…

UFC Light Heavyweight bout:  Tito Ortiz vs. Matt Hamill

Odds:  ( +140 Ortiz / -170 Hamill )

Betting Pick:  Matt Hamill

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The evening’s second bout is a very interesting one, as “The Huntington Beach Bad Boy” Tito Ortiz returns to the UFC to take on Matt “The Hammer” Hamill. In addition to the fact that both guys have similar styles, this one has an extra layer of intrigue because Ortiz was actually Hamill’s coach when he appeared on The Ultimate Fighter. Has the student surpassed the teacher, or will the Tito Ortiz of old make a return appearance?

Ortiz, a future UFC Hall of Famer, was once an extremely dominant champion. With a mix of decent boxing, great wrestling, dominant ground and pound, and very underrated jiu-jitsu, Ortiz had the Light Heavyweight division on lockdown for years. In recent appearances though, he has looked much less dominant than he once did, probably as the result of years of debilitating neck and back injuries. Still, he is a dangerous and experienced veteran who is not going to be overwhelmed in any aspect of the fight game, and represents a difficult stylistic challenge for Hamill.

Hamill, in many ways, is a lot like the Tito of old. A dominant wrestler with a great top game, Hamill may not have the same type of jiu-jitsu that Ortiz did, but he makes up for it with superior striking. His boxing is fairly technical, he has pretty good high kicks, and his punches pack a lot of power. Still, his best bet to win any fight is by taking his opponent down and grinding out a win with top control and ground and pound, but it remains to be seen whether he can implement that gameplan against Ortiz.

This is going to be a competitive fight, because while Ortiz has a huge experience advantage, his performance is bound to be hampered by injuries yet again. Without the ability to effectively change levels for takedowns, Ortiz’s best weapon is weakened, and that is going to be a problem for him. I think Hamill’s boxing and wrestling will catch him by surprise, and he is going to spend the majority of this fight on the defensive, which should be enough to earn Hamill the decision win.

Prediction:  Matt “The Hammer” Hamill via unanimous decision.

To add a little excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.  They allow you to start with as little as $20, and you can bet on all of the fights for the night. Check out my review of Sportsbook here…

UFC Welterweight bout:  Diego Sanchez vs. Paulo Thiago

Odds:  ( +100 Sanchez / -130 Thiago )

Betting Pick:  Paulo Thiago

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In the third bout, Diego “Nightmare” Sanchez, coming off two disappointing losses in a row, will look to get back into the win column against tough as nails Brazilian Paulo Thiago. Thiago has been thrown in with the sharks repeatedly since debuting in the UFC, and Sanchez is another really tough fight for him, so this is an interesting matchup and an important one for both guys’ careers.

Despite his recent setbacks, Diego Sanchez has had a very successful UFC career since winning the inaugural season of The Ultimate Fighter. A solid wrestler with good ground and pound and an effective submission game to back it up, Sanchez makes his opponents’ lives miserable by keeping up a relentless place from bell to bell and overwhelming them with aggression. When Sanchez has a problem is when he can’t force his opponents onto the defensive and when his wrestling is stifled. If he is forced to rely on his standup against Thiago, he is going to be in a lot of trouble.

Thiago is also a very well-rounded fighter, although he lacks the wrestling acumen that Sanchez has. He makes up for it though by having vastly superior striking with a lot more power and better submissions as well. When you consider the level of opposition he has faced in the UFC, Thiago’s record is extremely impressive. The only thing that has held him back so far is his inability to deal with superior wrestlers. There is no doubt that Sanchez is a better wrestler than Thiago, but he is not as dominant as Fitch or Martin Kampmann so it remains to be seen whether he will be able to put Thiago off his game.

I think the edge in this one has to go to Thiago. On the feet he is way better than Sanchez, and even if Sanchez manages to get this fight to the ground, Thiago is very good at sweeping, escaping, and submitting opponents. I think Sanchez is going to have trouble taking Thiago down though, and that spells disaster. Thiago should win the striking exchanges easily and stuff enough takedowns and neutralize Sanchez on the ground enough to earn the decision win.

Prediction:  Paulo Thiago via unanimous decision.

To add a little excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.  They allow you to start with as little as $20, and you can bet on all of the fights for the night. Check out my review of Sportsbook here…

UFC Heavyweight bout:  Brendan Schaub vs. Gabriel Gonzaga

Odds:  ( -160 Gonzaga / +130 Schaub )

Betting Pick:  Brendan Schaub

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In the opening bout of the evening, recent Ultimate Fighter finalist Brendan Schaub will face his toughest test since signing a contract in the form of Gabriel “Napao” Gonzaga. Schaub has great power and is very athletic, but Gonzaga is heavy-handed and has a world class ground game, so this is a good litmus test for how bright Schaub’s future in the division really is.

Schaub, who steamrolled his way through The Ultimate Fighter before being knocked out in the final by Roy Nelson, is one of the most athletic and explosive heavyweights in the UFC. A giant guy with good boxing and a lot of punching power, Schaub is an extremely imposing figure. He also has fairly decent wrestling, and has very good cardio for such a big fighter. The biggest question marks are his chin, which Roy Nelson exposed as vulnerable, and his submission defense, which has never really been tested the way Gonzaga is capable of testing it.

Gonzaga has some of the best submissions at Heavyweight, but oftentimes chooses not to employ them. Instead, he tends to rely on his standup, which is fairly formidable in its own right. The problem is, while he has serious knockout power in his hands, he doesn’t have a durable chin to go along with it and his cardio is more than a little suspect, which means his punches start to lose power fairly quickly.

One thing is certain, and that is that this will be a short fight. Both Schaub and Gonzaga will be more than happy to exchange power punches, the question is who will land first and hardest. I have to give the edge to Schaub, in that regard. Both guys pack a mean punch, but Schaub is quicker and lighter on his feet, and should be able to exploit that speed advantage and KO Gonzaga.

Prediction:  Brendan “The Hybrid” Schaub via second round KO.

• Bet  on the UnderDog  Schaub to pull off the Win at +130.

To add a little excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.  They allow you to start with as little as $20, and you can bet on all of the fights for the night. Check out my review of Sportsbook here…