Tag: UFC betting

Welterweight Bout:  Matt Serra vs. Chris Lytle

Odds:  (+110 Serra / -140 Lytle )

Betting Pick:  Matt Serra

The third bout of the evening is a showdown between two long-time UFC veterans with very similar styles, as Chris “Lights Out” Lytle takes on former Welterweight champion Matt “The Terror” Serra. Both Lytle and Serra have excellent jiu-jitsu, and both have a willingness to let their hands go, too. This is one of the more interesting stylistic matchups in recent history, even if the fight itself is not at all important to the shape of the division.

Chris Lytle is, without question, one of the toughest men ever to fight in Mixed Martial Arts competition. In 51 professional bouts, he has never been knocked out or submitted. The only time he has been finished was with a TKO by way of cut. Lytle has pretty good boxing, although he does lack dangerous punching power. His best work, though, is done on the ground, where he is prolific at submitting his opponents. Serra is one of the best grapplers in the division, though, so it is interesting to see how well Lytle will be able to play the position game on the ground instead of just committing himself to submission attempts.

Matt Serra, who shocked the world by turning a win on The Ultimate Fighter’s comeback season into a Welterweight title reign when he put Georges St. Pierre away with a flurry of punches, is one of the most prolific submission experts in the UFC, and certainly one of the best at 170 pounds. As St. Pierre, Frank Trigg, and others have learned the hard way, though, it does not pay to underestimate his striking. His boxing is not very pretty or technical, and he has a very short reach, but when he connects with a big shot his opponent is in a world of trouble. Against Lytle, a guy who can probably neutralize his ground attack to a high degree, that is going to prove an invaluable asset.

Stylistically, this matchup favors Serra. Both guys are extremely effective on the ground, but Serra is probably a little bit better, and he has the added bonus of not having to worry about his opponent’s punching power, a luxury that Lytle will not be afforded. Just because Lytle has never been knocked out does not mean that it is a good idea for him to stand in front of Serra and let him throw power punches, and I think that will make the difference. Serra will be in the driver’s seat during the striking exchanges and will most likely be the one who dictates when and if the fight goes to the ground. Once it hits the mat, the two will probably cancel out each other’s submission games, so the takedowns and striking are going to decide this fight. Serra by decision.

Prediction:  Matt “The Terror” Serra via unanimous decision.

• We have another UnderDog in Serra @+110 for the Win.

To add a little excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.  They allow you to start with as little as $20, and you can bet on all of the fights for the night. Check out my review of Sportsbook here…

Lightweight Bout:  Sean Sherk vs. Evan Dunham

Odds: (+175 Sherk / -215 Dunham )

Betting Pick:  Sean Sherk

The evening’s second bout pits former Lightweight champion Sean “The Muscle Shark” Sherk against undefeated prospect Evan Dunham in a very important bout for the recently cloudy Lightweight title picture. Sherk has long been one of the most dominant Lightweights in the world, but Dunham has stepped up in competition repeatedly and has so far been equal to the challenge every time.

Dunham, coming off a big split decision win over Tyson Griffin and an armbar victory over Ultimate Fighter winner Efrain Escudero, is a very complete and dangerous fighter. A black belt in brazilian jiu-jitsu, Dunham has a very good submission game from every position, but he also has solid striking and wrestling to complement it. Still, Sherk is easily the best opponent he has ever faced, and more specifically the best wrestler by a massive margin, so it remains to be seen whether he has what it takes to stop Sherk’s dominant takedowns and top control game.

Sherk, who had a rather successful stint at Welterweight in addition to his Lightweight title reign, is one of the most determined and effective wrestlers in the sport. His boxing is actually very underrated and technically sound, although his effectiveness is hampered by his complete lack of reach. Still, Sherk’s best work has always been accomplished by taking people down and grinding out wins from top position, where he is extremely good at controlling position and avoiding submissions.

Dunham is a star in the making, but he is not ready for this large a step up in competition yet. He had some trouble in his last fight dealing with Tyson Griffin’s wrestling, and Sherk is going to be even harder for him to handle. Dunham won’t get steamrolled, but most of this fight will probably take place on the mat with Sherk in top position, and that is not good news for anyone he fights. Sherk by unanimous decision.

Prediction:  Sean “The Muscle Shark” Sherk via unanimous decision.

• Bet on Sherk @+175 for the upset win over Dunham.

To add a little excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.  They allow you to start with as little as $20, and you can bet on all of the fights for the night. Check out my review of Sportsbook here…

Lightweight Bout:  Melvin Guillard vs. Jeremy Stephens

Odds:  (-160 Guillard / +130 Stephens )

Betting Pick:  Melvin Guillard

In the opening bout of the evening, former Ultimate Fighter contestant Melvin Guillard and tough striker Jeremy “Lil’ Heathen” Stephens will duke it out in the Lightweight division. Guillard is one of the most athletic and explosive fighters in the UFC, but Stephens is a very skilled and heavy-handed veteran, so this should be a competitive fight to say the least. To make matters even more interesting, these two have engaged in an extensive war of words in the lead-up to this fight, so between their respective skills and the animosity they will be bringing into the cage, this one has definite Fight of the Night potential.

Melvin Guillard, who made his way into the UFC after a disappointing stint on the second season of The Ultimate Fighter, is as natural an athlete as there is in Mixed Martial Arts. A quality wrestler with a surplus of punching power, Guillard has a good offense which is only aided by his excellent cardio and immense physical strength. The two things that have kept Guillard from succeeding at the top level have always been his submission defense and his questionable personal decisions, including a positive drug test for cocaine following his loss to Joe Stevenson. Recently, though, Guillard has been training in New Mexico at Greg Jackson’s camp, which has led not only to his growth as a fighter, but his maturation as a human being. In recent fights Guillard has seemed far more patient and far less reckless than he did for most of his career, which can only bode well for his future. Still, he is going to have his hands full with Stephens, who has many of his same gifts and the ability to end fights in a variety of ways.

Stephens, who has had some ups and downs during his UFC stint, is nevertheless a very talented and dangerous fighter. A fairly solid wrestler with a lot of punching power and devastating ground and pound, Stephens is an up and coming talent in the packed Lightweight division. His game is not all the way there yet, but then again, neither is Guillard’s, so this is a good matchup for him.

This is a great matchup for a number of reasons. For one thing, both guys are in similar positions in that they are both very young and promising, and both of them have had mixed results so far in the UFC that make a win here very important. For another, both guys are more than willing to stand in the pocket and throw big punches, and neither guy has a very dominant ground game or wrestling, so this should be exciting. This is one of those fights that is going to come down to who can get off first and who can manage the pace of the fight best. In that regard I give the edge to Guillard. His time with Greg Jackson really seems to have matured him as a fighter, and if he doesn’t rush headlong into this fight he has all the tools to pull off a victory: great striking, decent takedown defense, and an uncanny ability to get out from underneath his opponents when he does get taken down. I expect this one to go the distance, but Guillard should control the action and land some heavy shots on his way to a unanimous decision victory.

Prediction:  Melvin “The Young Assassin” Guillard via unanaimous decision. 

To add a little excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.  They allow you to start with as little as $20, and you can bet on all of the fights for the night. Check out my review of Sportsbook here…

Here I have all the fight information you will need to read over and pick the best bets for you. 

Fight Odds & Betting Lines

• Fight Night 22 Betting Odds
• MMA Betting Sites

UFC Fight Night 22 Fight Card

• Full Fight Night 22 Fight Card

Pat’s Expert Predictions

• Quick Fight Night 22 Predictions Page

Detailed Fighting Predictions

• Marquardt vs. Palhares
• Escudero vs. Oliveira
• Miller vs. Tibau
• Pearson vs. Miller

UFC Fight Night 22 Fighter Profiles

• Nate Marquardt
• Rousimar Palhares
• Efrain Escudero
• Charles Oliveira
• Jim Miller
• Gleison Tibau
• Ross Pearson
• Cole Miller

Here are my predictions for UFC Fight Night 22. I have posted detailed fight predictions for the main card and quick picks for the preliminary card.  There are some good Dogs in this event to bet on.

UFC Fight Night 22 Betting Odds

Nate Marquardt over Rousimar Palhares via second round T/KO.

• Marquardt vs. Palhares prediction page.

Charles Oliveira over Efrain Escudero via second round rear naked choke.

• Oliveira vs. Escudero prediction page.

Gleison Tibau over Jim Miller via unanimous decision.

• Tibau vs. Miller prediction page.

Ross Pearson over Cole Miller via unanimous decision.

• Pearson vs. Miller prediction page.

UFC Fight Night 22 Preliminary Card Quick Picks

Sportsbook.com Odds

• John Gunderson over Yves Edwards via unanimous decision.
• Jared Hamannover Kyle Kingsbury via second round TKO.
• Tomasz Drwal over Dave Branch via first round T/KO.
• Rich Attonito over Rafael Natal via unanimous decision.
• David Mitchell over Anthony Waldburger via unanimous decision.
• Brian Foster over Forrest Petz via unanimous decision.