Tag: UFC betting

Light Heavyweight Championship bout: Muhammed Lawal vs. Rafael Cavalcante

Odds:  ( -500 Lawal /+300 Cavalcante )

The main event promises to be a barn-burner, as champ Muhammed “King Mo” Lawal defends his Light Heavyweight title against one of Brazil’s most formidable strikers, Rafael “Feijao” Cavalcante. Both of these guys have punching power in excess, which makes this an exciting matchup anyway, but Cavalcante is easily the superior striker technically while Lawal brings dominant wrestling to the table as well, so this is an interesting stylistic matchup.

Cavalcante, despite coming from the famed Team Noguiera, is not known for his ground game. Instead he is best known for his punishing boxing and Muay Thai, which he uses to completely overwhelm most of his opponents. There is no question that if Lawal tries to engage him standing, Cavalcante is the better striker and has what it takes to put King Mo away. The question is whether his chin can hold up to the kind of bombs Lawal is known to throw, and more importantly whether he has what it takes to prevent Lawal from taking him down and working him over from top position.

Lawal, the undefeated Light Heavyweight champion, earned his crown by throwing huge bombs with vicious intent and working a dominating wrestling game. Lawal can let leather fly from range or on the ground from top position, and not many people are going to be capable of stopping him from taking them down. He does need to be careful against Cavalcante, though, because it is unlikely that he is going to come out ahead in many striking exchanges. For Lawal to win he is going to have to strike enough to set up his takedowns without getting lured into trading shots toe to toe.

I think that this matchup favors Lawal, stylistically. Both men have finishing potential in the standup, although Cavalcante is the more skilled and well-rounded striker, but I don’t think Cavalcante has an answer to Lawal’s takedowns and top control. I expect Lawal to capitalize on Feijao’s lack of takedown defense and work him over from inside the guard for the majority of this fight, eventually overwhelming him for the TKO stoppage.

Prediction:  King Mo Lawal via third round T/KO.

To add a little excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.  They allow you to start with as little as $20, and you can bet on all of the fights for the night. Check out my review of Sportsbook here…

Middleweight Championship bout: Ronaldo Souza vs. Tim Kennedy

Odds:  (-295 Souza /+235 Kennedy )

The semi-main event is a big middleweight showdown between grappling ace Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza and tough, well-rounded army veteran Tim Kennedy. Kennedy has a very complete game, with good striking, wrestling, and ground work, but Jacare has some of the best jiu-jitsu in the sport, so Kennedy is going to have his hands full.

It would be almost impossible to overstate how good Jacare’s submission game is. From every position, he is a constant threat to finish the fight, and he is extremely good at working one submission into another into another until he can lock something in and put his opponent away. The rest of his game is still coming along, although in recent fights his standup has looked fairly crisp. He is not a dangerous striker by any means, but he isn’t totally lost in the boxing game like some other competitive jiu-jitsu tryouts. The most important thing here is going to be his ability to get the fight to the ground. His wrestling is not dominant and Kennedy is fairly solid, so he is going to have to be tricky if he wants to get this fight on the floor and avoid getting boxed around. Don’t be surprised if he opts to simply pull guard and try to work sweeps from his back.

Tim Kennedy is no slouch in the submission game himself, having finished half of his victories with submissions and having fought some very tough submission fighters and survived, including Jason “Mayhem” Miller, who Kennedy fought twice and beat once. In fact, Kennedy has never been finished by submission in his entire career. An army veteran with a very well-rounded skill set, Kennedy is one of the toughest guys in the Middleweight division to finish, or even to take off his game. The key to him winning this fight is versatility. He can’t make the mistake of trying to out-grapple Jacare. Instead, he needs to try to work his range standing, stuff takedowns, and maybe surprise Jacare with a few takedowns of his own.

If this were a three round fight, I would give Kennedy a very good chance of landing enough shots and controlling the action enough to earn a decision win, but in a five round fight I think his chances of avoiding Jacare’s submissions are pretty low. Eventually Jacare will find a way to tie Kennedy up on the ground, probably in the later rounds, and earn the submission victory.

Prediction:  Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza via round four submission.

To add a little excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.  They allow you to start with as little as $20, and you can bet on all of the fights for the night. Check out my review of Sportsbook here…

Lightweight bout: KJ Noons vs. Jorge Gurgel

Odds:  (-205 Noons /+165 Gurgel )

In the evening’s second bout, prolific boxer KJ Noons will square off against UFC veteran Jorge Gurgel in a Lightweight contest. Noons is a deadly boxer with great technique, but is recently returned from a 2 year sabbatical, while Gurgel is trying to rebuild his career after a series of surgeries and a horrible stint in the UFC, so this is a big fight for both guys.

KJ Noons is probably best known for his dominating stoppage win over current 170 pound champ Nick Diaz. In that fight, Noons put on a boxing clinic, tearing Diaz’s face up until the doctor deemed him unable to continue. After following that win up with a destruction of veteran Yves Edwards, Noons took time away from the sport due to contractual issues with Elite XC and a desire to compete as a professional boxer. He looked shaky in return bouts against Andre Amado and Conor Heun, but he is still an extremely precise and accurate puncher who can overwhelm opponents willing to stand in front of him.

Jorge Gurgel is, to put it mildly, the kind of opponent who is willing to stand in front of him. A very accomplished jiu-jitsu black belt, Gurgel has the unfortunate tendency to pretend his ground game doesn’t exist in favor of standing in front of everyone he fights and engaging in sloppy slugfests. Unfortunately for him, he lacks the technique or power to make it a remotely effective strategy, and he has squandered a lot of his career by employing a terrible fight strategy. Also problematic is the series of bad knee injuries he has suffered over the years, which have limited his mobility and his ability to put his weight behind his punches.

Gurgel is very well-rounded, believe it or not, and he has the ability to work a gameplan that could defeat Noons, he just isn’t going to do it. Instead he will stand in front of Noons and get picked apart in routine fashion, dropping a lopsided unanimous decision and probably sending himself to the Challenger’s series for the rest of his career.

Prediction:  KJ Noons via unanimous decision.

To add a little excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.  They allow you to start with as little as $20, and you can bet on all of the fights for the night. Check out my review of Sportsbook here…

Heavyweight bout: Bobby Lashley vs. Chad Griggs

Odds:  ( Lashley / Griggs )

In the opening bout of the evening, former pro-wrestling superstar Bobby Lashley will look to capture his sixth straight win against tough slugger Chad Griggs. Lashley has been built up very gradually, in marked contrast to his former WWE coworker Brock Lesnar, and Griggs is another small step up for him. Lashley may come from a fake wrestling background, but his takedown and top control game are very real. The question is whether he has developed a well-rounded enough game to deal with Griggs’ powerful striking.

Chad Griggs, known as “The Gravedigger”, comes by the name honestly, as he has some serious knockout power in his hands. Outside of a pair of appearances in the now-defunct International Fight League, Griggs has mainly made a name for himself on smaller shows, and this is easily the toughest fight of his career. It is clear that Griggs is not a complete fighter, and that he has no ground game to speak of, but he was brought in to fight Lashley in order to test him in one area, the striking, and in that regard he is more than qualified.

Lashley, who became a megastar in the WWE, doesn’t bring the same amateur credentials to the table as his counterpart, UFC Heavyweight Champion Brock Lesnar, but he does bring a massive frame, a ton of strength, and some very dominant wrestling. Lashley’s career is being brought along very slowly, and it is clear that this is a fight designed for him to win. Still, if he is overconfident or reckless, Griggs has the power to test his chin and then some.

Like I said, this is a fight designed for Lashley to win, and that is what will happen. Griggs has some scary power but he is wild and not very technical, not to mention that he has absolutely no ground game to speak of. Expect Lashley to take him down at will and pour on the punishment from top position for a TKO stoppage.

Prediction:  Bobby “The Dominator” Lashley via first round T/KO.

To add a little excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.  They allow you to start with as little as $20, and you can bet on all of the fights for the night. Check out my review of Sportsbook here…