Tag: UFC betting

Lightweight bout: Josh Thomson vs. Pat Healy

Odds:  ( Thomson / Healy )

In the opening bout of the evening, former Lightweight champion Josh “The Punk” Thomson will look to rebound from his loss to Gilbert Melendez against skilled grappler Pat “Bam Bam” Healy.  Thomson is the heavy favorite, but Healy’s ground game is very good, so this one should be pretty competitive.

Pat Healy, an IFL veteran who has also appeared on the Strikeforce Challengers series, is a very skilled grappler with decent wrestling and great submissions.  His biggest problem is his inconsistent performances.  He has not fared overly well when stepping up in competition, and while he does have some big wins, including over Dan Hardy and Carlos Condit, he has just as many unforgivable losses.  If he shows up in top form, he has the skill set to give Thomson trouble, but that is a big question mark.

Josh Thomson is undeniably one of the better Lightweights currently fighting outside of the UFC.  A long-time Strikeforce veteran who has also appeared in UFC and PRIDE, Thomson has carved out a very successful career for himself with his wrestling, ground and pound, and submission game from the top.  He is a serviceable striker, but hardly a dominant threat in the standup.

While Healy is not a tomato can, this is clearly a fight designed for Thomson to win.  Thomson is not known for his standup, but he should be more than capable of outboxing Healy.  More importantly, Healy does his best work on the ground, but Thomson is by far the superior wrestler, plus he has never been submitted.  He will control the fight with takedowns, posture up on top of Healy, and do enough damage to easily win every round.  Thomson by decision.

Prediction:  Josh Thomson via unanimous decision.

To add a little excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.  They allow you to start with as little as $20, and you can bet on all of the fights for the night. Check out my review of Sportsbook here…

Here is the Fight Information for The Ultimate Fighter 11 Finale.

Fight Odds & Betting Lines

• TUF 11 Betting Odds
• MMA Betting Sites

TUF 11 Finale Fight Card

• Full TUF 11 Fight Card

Pats Expert Predictions

• Quick TUF 11 Finale Predictions Page

Detailed Fight Predictions

• Hamill vs. Jardine
• McGee vs. McCray
• Leben vs. Simpson
• Fisher vs. Siver

TUF 11 Fighter Profiles

• Matt Hamill
• Keith Jardine
• Chris Leben
• Aaron Simpson
• Spencer Fisher
• Dennis Siver

185 lbs: Court McGee vs. Kris McCray

Odds:  (-200 McGee / +160 McCray )

In the finals of the Ultimate Fighter Season 11, Court McGee and Kris McCray will battle it out for the famed six figure contract and a spot on UFC’s loaded roster. Both guys have good skill sets, obviously, but what makes this final fight so interesting is that neither man actually made it through the show unbeaten. Both men were given second chances and made the most of it, and now they meet with their UFC futures on the line.

Kris McCray, who was part of Team Ortiz (and eventually Team Franklin), actually lost his very first fight in the house against wrestler Josh Bryant. After being given a shot at getting back in the mix, though, McCray took full advantage of his opportunity, submitting Kyacey Uscola and outpointing tough veteran Kyle Noke before avenging his loss to Bryant to secure a spot in the finals. McCray has solid boxing, good wrestling, and good submissions from the top. The only hole in his game on the show was his cardio, which allowed Bryant to push him around in their first fight when he gasses at the end of the first round. If he has been spending his off time working on his conditioning, though, he is going to be a very formidable opponent come fight time.

Like McCray, Court McGee dropped his first preliminary fight, coming out on the wrong end of a controversial decision against Nick Ring. Also like McCray, McGee made the most of his second chance, first submitting James Hammortree with a guillotine choke and then clipping his teammate Brad Tavares with a hard shot to the chin that set up a rear naked choke. McGee brings a great chin, solid boxing, determined takedowns, and solid submissions to the table, and he is going to need all of that if he wants to secure his spot in the UFC.

I think the edge in this one goes to McGee. McCray has good submissions from top position, but McGee is the better wrestler, and probably has more powerful standup as well. I expect him to control the pace and position of this fight with boxing and hard-fought takedowns en route to a unanimous decision win and a spot on the UFC roster.

Prediction: Court McGee via Unanimous Decision.

To add a little excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.  They allow you to start with as little as $20, and you can bet on all of the fights for the night. Check out my review of Sportsbook here…

155 lbs:  Spencer Fisher vs. Dennis Siver

Odds:  (-175 Fisher /+145 Siver )

In what could well be the most competitive fight of the night, Lightweights Spencer “The King” Fisher and Dennis Siver will go at it in a division that is, all of a sudden, wide open.  Both guys are skilled, well-rounded, and experienced, so this has the makings of a very close back and forth fight.

Spencer Fisher, a veteran of over eight years who comes from the fabled Miletich camp, is a very tough and well-rounded fighter.  His standup is crisp and powerful, he has a solid chin, good wrestling, and a very underrated submission game, although he hasn’t shown it off much recently.  He has also fought some of the best fighters in the world at multiple weight classes, which is always a help.

His opponent, Dennis Siver, is also a very skilled and well-rounded fighter.  After an unsuccessful first stint in the UFC, he earned his spot back, and put it to good use.  Like Fisher, Siver is skilled in every aspect of fighting, but his submission game is probably a little better than Fisher’s while his standup game is probably a little worse.

Despite both guys having very solid ground games, I think this is going to be a standup war, and I think that favors Fisher.  Siver is capable of pulling out some deadly, flashy offense in the standup, but Fisher’s technical and workmanlike boxing should shut him down effectively, and Fisher’s takedown defense should be good enough to keep himself off his back for most of the fight, at least.  Fisher by decision.

Prediction:  Spencer “The King” Fisher via Unanimous Decision.

To add a little excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.  They allow you to start with as little as $20, and you can bet on all of the fights for the night. Check out my review of Sportsbook here…

Catchweight (195 lbs) bout:Robbie Lawler vs.  Renato Sobral

Odds:  (+140 Sobral / -170 Lawler )

In the main event, two high caliber UFC veterans will meet in an exciting catchweight bout, as Renato “Babalu” Sobral moves down to 195 to face “Ruthless” Robbie Lawler.  Babalu is skilled and well-rounded, while Lawler is one of the most prolific punchers in Strikeforce, so this should be a very interesting fight.

Renato “Babalu” Sobral is a very dangerous fighter who has some boxing skill that he uses to complement his excellent wrestling and submissions.  Even though he is a pretty decent striker, he is going to have to take this fight to the ground, because Lawler has much better technique and power on the feet.  On the ground though, he should be able to work Lawler over with strikes and probably submit him, so it’s clear that his game plan is going to have to be to take Lawler down.

Robbie Lawler may be one dimensional, but that one dimension is excellent.  He doesn’t have very much in the way of a ground game, although his wrestling is pretty good, but his boxing is fast, accurate, and extremely powerful.  There is no question that, if he can keep this fight standing, he will knock Babalu out.  Whether he can pull that off, though, is another matter entirely.

Ultimately, I think Sobral takes this one.  Lawler is going to land some shots, but Babalu’s standup and chin are good enough that he will be able to set up his takedowns.  On the ground he is more than good enough to control the fight, bust Lawler up, and eventually submit him.  Babalu by submission.

Prediction:  Renato “Babalu” Sobral via second round submission.

• Bet on the UnderDog Babalu @ +140 for the Win.

To add a little excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.  They allow you to start with as little as $20, and you can bet on all of the fights for the night. Check out my review of Sportsbook here…