Tag: UFC Picks

While the sequel to Cain Velasquez vs. Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva arrived much earlier than most rematches (besides immediate rematches), What separates it from all the others, is that no one thought these two would be fighting each other again at all. The majority of MMA writers, analysts, and fans never would have picked Bigfoot to beat both Travis Browne and Alistair Overeem, but he did in order to challenge for the title. At the same time, 95% of predictions had Junior dos Santos defeating Velasquez in their rematch to retain his belt. As we all know, that’s not what happened at all, and now the rematch that no one thought would take place is nearly here.

The main event is really taking up the spotlight, but UFC 160 is a stacked card from top to bottom. The UFC really out did themselves on this event, but enough talk, let’s get to the predictions.

 

Khabib Nurmagomedov   vs.  Abel Trujillo

After watching Trujillo beat on Marcus LeVesseur, it was difficult for me to give Nurmagomedov the advantage. LeVesseur is an elite wrestler and took Trujillo down early in the fight, but the brutal body shots that Trujillo shut the wrestler down and set up he eventual TKO. Nurmagomedov may not have pure wrestling that LeVesseur possess, but the Russian’s Sambo/Judo skills pose new threats that Trujillo didn’t have to worry about in his last fight. In addition to his grappling, Nurmagomedov has proficient striking, with equally as many wins by knockout as he does by submission. I wouldn’t be surprised if Trujillo hands the Russian his first loss, but I’ll take the safe bet and go with Eagle.

Pick : Khabib Nurmagomedov

 

Dennis Bermudez   vs.  Max Holloway

Holloway defended 17 takedown attempts against Pat Schilling, but Bermudez is a much stronger wrestler, which will make avoiding the takedowns that much more difficult. Tommy Hayden, Pablo Garza, and Matt Grice have all felt the sheer power of Bermudez, and he even had Diego Brandao on the ropes until he succumbed to an armbar. Holloway ahs excellent technical striking, but Bermudez isn’t afraid to stand and bang. He’s dropped his last four opponents with punches, so if Leonard Garcia was able to give Holloway some trouble on the feet, I have no doubt that Bermudez can do the same. Now combined that with his wrestling, and I just don’t see how Holloway can pull off a win.

Pick : Dennis Bermudez

 

Robert Whittaker   vs.  Colton Smith

After watching Brad Scott use his wrestling to give Whittaker some trouble, there’s no reason to believe that Colton Smith can’t do the same thing tenfold. As long as the TUF 16 winner isn’t caught in an early flurry, he will humiliate the Aussie on the ground just as he did to Mike Ricci, another striking based fighter.

Pick : Colton Smith

 

Mike Pyle   vs.  Rick Story

I’m getting the vibe that Pyle is on his way up the ladder, while Story is on his way down. With that being said, this fight could go either way, but I’m leaning towards the fighter with more momentum behind him. While Story has more power, Pyle has the reach advantage, superior technical striking and more diverse striking. Both fighters are proficient wrestlers, but unlike Story, Pyle has a solid submission game off his back. While it’s true that Story could land a perfectly placed punch, or out wrestle his way to a decision victory, I’m going with who I feel is the more well rounded fighter with a more momentum behind him.

Pick : Mike Pyle

 

Donald Cerrone   vs.  KJ Noons

Cerrone was embarrassed in his bout with Anthony Pettis, but if you’re going to get your ass whipped, it’s better that it was at the hands of the next title contender. When Cerrone comes back from a loss, he puts on one hell of a performance, which is exactly what I expect him to do. Noons has lost four of his last five fights, recently dropping a controversial decision to Ryan Couture. While many believe that Noons was robbed in his last bout, it was razor close fight against a decent striker with above average grappling. Cerrone is better than Ryan Couture in every aspect of the game, and will only put up that much of a tougher fight, therefore, I don’t see Noons finding a win with his boxing alone.

Pick : Donald Cerrone

 

Gray Maynard   vs.  TJ Grant

Maynard has shown improved boxing throughout his career, but Grant has developed excellent Muay Thai striking, which he used to defeat Evan Dunham and Matt Wiman. In most of his fights, Maynard utilizes his wrestling to achieve victory, but with Grant’s wrestling and submission skills, he won’t be able to overwhelm his opponent like he does in most of his fights. Maynard will have to worry about the submission if he takes the fight to the ground, and if he looks to keep the fight standing, Grant will use his Muay Thai to get the KO. Grant has more ways to win, and should be getting the next title shot.

Pick : TJ Grant

 

Glover Teixeira   vs.  James Te-Huna

Te-Huna showed a lot of heart as well as an iron jaw in his fight with Ryan Jimmo, but Teixeira is just better in every aspect of the game. Te-Huna better land that one perfect punch and put Teixeira to sleep if he wasnts to win. There’s really no need to go any further than that.

Pick : Glover Teixeira

 

Junior dos Santos   vs.  Mark Hunt

Both Hunt and Dos Santos are expert strikers, but even if it’s a stalemate on the feet, Dos Santos should have both the Jiu-Jitsu and cardio advantage. Unless Hunt lands and early finishing blow, he should fade midway through the second round, allowing the Brazilian to take control. If we happen to see a scramble on the ground due to someone getting dropped, Dos Santos might even showcase the his ground skills he learned from Minotauro Nogueira.

Pick : Junior dos Santos

 

Cain Velasquez   vs.  Antonio Silva

Seeing these two fighters met only a year ago, I don’t see much changing in the rematch. Even if Silva had five years to train for Velasquez, I’d still pick the champ. As a black belt in BJJ, Judo and Karate, Bigfoot still couldn’t amount any offense and having this fight again will just be a déjà vu of before. The Champ’s wrestling and cardio are just too good for Silva to find victory in this fight.

Pick : Cain Velasquez

 

 

* Quick Picks * ( In Bold)

Stephen Thompson   vs.  Nah-Shon Burrell

Brian Bowles   vs.  George Roop

Jeremy Stephens  vs.  Estevan Payan

 

 

 

– Ryan “Fight Freek” Poli

@FightFreek

 

 

It’s that time again when MMA analysts Josh Leduc and Ryan “Fight Freek” Poli go head to head and see who can make the better MMA predictions. The last event (UFC 159) was a tie, with both analysts getting half of their disagreed bouts. There’s only two fights the two disagree on, but that just means that either one of them could claim victory in this MMA prediction competition. Here we go…

 

– Jussier da Silva  vs.  Chris Cariaso

 
Fight Freek’s breakdown : Formiga may have an excellent Jiu-Jitsu game, but I’m far from impressed with his striking. Cariaso faired well against the striking and Jiu-Jitsu of Vaughan Lee and convinced the judges that he did enough to beat Takeya Mizugaki. He won the first two rounds of his fight with John Moraga until he was submitted in the third round, and he lost a split decision to Michael McDonald. Combined with his fights against Will Campuzano and Renan Barao, and Cariaso has the experience to rise to the challenge of his opponent.

Pick : Chris Cariaso

 

Josh’s breakdown : Formiga has finished half of his fights via submission, and has only lost to the #3 and #4 flyweights in the world. Cariaso doesn’t possess the wrestling of Ian McCall or the striking and speed of John Dodson, so Formiga should get another submission victory.

Pick : Jussier da Silva

 

– Francisco Trinaldo  vs.  Mike Rio

 

Fight Freek’s breakdown : Next to Gleison Tibau, Trinaldo is the largest lightweight in the UFC. His large size hasn’t affected his conditioning, and he should be the better grappler. If Rio was a top striker, then I might be worried for Trianldo’s chances, but that’s not the case. In a grappler vs. grappler fight, Trinaldo should win nine of ten times.

Pick : Francisco Trinaldo

 

Josh’s breakdown : Trinaldo tends to make a mistake when grappling with his opponents, and sometimes finds himself in compromising positions. Even against a complete grappling novice like C.J. Keith briefly had a dominant position over Trinaldo due to a grappling error. If he makes those same mistakes against Rio, he won’t get the opportunity to rectify it, and will be in a world of hurt. Trinaldo will put up a fight, but after such an impressive performance in his fight with John Cofer, I’m confident that Rio will emerge victorious.

Pick : Mike Rio

 

Just for the record, here’s the rest of our picks that we agree on…

 

Vitor Belfort  > Luke Rockhold

Ronaldo Souza  > Chris Camozzi

Rafael dos Anjos  > Evan Dunham

Rafael Natal  > Joao Zeferino

Hacran Dias  > Nik Lentz

Yuri Alcantara  > Iliarde Santos

Paulo Thiago  > Michel Prazeres

John Lineker  > Azamat Gashimov

Fabio Maldonado  > Roger Hollett

Gleison Tibau  > John Cholish

Lucas Martins  > Jeremy Larsen

 
– Ryan “Fight Freek” Poli

@FightFreek

We got another thirteen fights to predict, and I’m confident that we’ll out predict the other thirty something MMA websites making their predictions. Let’s get to the predictions, because a long intro to an article like this is pointless, we all know we’re making predictions.

 

– Francisco Trinaldo   vs.   Mike Rio

With the exception of Gleison Tibau, Trinaldo may be the largest lightweight in the UFC, and he has yet to show it affect his conditioning. Rio is an exceptional wrestler with proficient submissions, but I believe his opponent is a tad better. Rio will put up a tough fight, but Trinaldo will be victorious.

Pick : Francisco Trinaldo

 

– Hacran Dias   vs.  Nik Lentz

I’ll admit that I underestimated Lentz in his fight with Diego Nunes, but Nunes was all striking with limited grappling ability. Against Dias, Lentz will have his biggest strength neutralized, as Dias will be an equally skilled grappler, but with far better Jiu-Jitsu. Dias will be comfortable whether on top or on his back, and this even if he doesn’t submit Lentz, his efforts will win him the fight.

Pick : Hacran Dias

 

– Rafael Natal   vs.  Joao Zeferino

As usual, my initial edge goes to the fighter with UFC experience. Zeferino is a talented grappler, but Natal’s grappling will at least neutralize, if not overcome his opponents grappling. If it’s a stalemate on the ground, I give a edge in striking to Natal, which should get him the win.

Pick : Rafael Natal

 

– Rafael dos Anjos   vs.  Evan Dunham

I’m eager to see this fight take place. Both are well rounded fighters who aren’t exactly in the elite of the division, but a win could draw them a top ten opponent in their next fight. Dunham was considered among the UFC’s best lightweights a few years back, I think the Brazilian is just a bit better in all aspects of the game; striking, wrestling, and Jiu-Jitsu. That may sound odds seeing Dunham is coming off a win over Gleison Tibau and dos Anjos dropped a decision to Tibau at UFC 139, but I don’t see Dunham having the tools to win after seeing dos Anjos overwhelm a excellent striker like Anthony Njokuani, and a strong grappler like Mark Bocek. The Brazilian seems to be getting better with every fight, and should have the advantage wherever the fight goes.

Pick : Rafael dos Anjos

 

– Ronaldo Souza   vs.  Chris Camozzi

I was really looking forward to seeing Costa Philippou square off with Souza , but I suppose this is the best replacement bout that was available. Camozzi is on a four fight win streak, but he could’ve just as easily lost three of those fights. Souza has tapped better fighters than Camozzi, so he’ll will be the one to delay his climb in the middleweight division. Bottom line, Costa Philippou is a superior striker to Camozzi, and I was still picking Souza in that fight. Throwing Camozzi in the mix doesn’t change the outcome in the least.

Pick : Ronaldo Souza

 

– Vitor Belfort   vs.  Luke Rockhold

Rockhold utilizes his height and length better than most fighters with a similar build, making it nearly impossible for his opponents to avoid his kicks. The excellent takedown and submission defense that Rockhold possess played a huge part in his victories over Ronaldo Souza and Tim Kennedy, so I doubt he’ll be worrying about the ground game. Although I’d admit that Rockhold has the cardio advantage, Belfort’s conditioning has improved, as well as being very precise in his offense so no energy is wasted.

Belfort’s biggest advantage will be his speed. Most people remember his fight with Anderson Silva as a one sided fight, but Belfort looked sharp early in the fight, as he caught a kick from the champ and used it to take him down. He even landed a bit of ground and pound before Silva got back to his feet. What’s the moral of the story? Belfort is fast enough to counter his opponent’s kicks, and if Rockhold chooses not to use and kicks in his offense, it basically becomes a boxing match, which the Phenom will win.

Pick : Vitor Belfort

 

* Quick Picks *

Yuri Alcantara  >  Iliarde Santos

Paulo Thiago  >  Michel Prazeres

John Lineker  >  Azamat Gashimov

Fabio Maldonado  >  Roger Hollett

Gleison Tibau  >  John Cholish

Jussier da Silva  <  Chris Cariaso

Lucas Martins  >  Jeremy Larsen

 

– Ryan “Fight Freek” Poli

@FightFreek

http://youtu.beEi2AfhKyTFU

Jon Jones  vs.  Chael Sonnen

Sonnen Faired well against the striking of Anderson Silva, but I crdit that to the talent gap in their wrestling. Jon Jones on the other hand, is a skilled wrestler who has yet to be taken down by any of his opponents. The reach and creative striking of Jones will make it more than difficult for Sonnen to get close enough to threat with a takedown, but even if he can get within range, Jones should be able to use his wrestling in reverse to prevent being put on his back. When coming in for a takedown, Sonnen better beware of Jones grabbing hold of his neck, because he has one hell of a guillotine.

Pick : Jon Jones

 

Michael Bisping   vs.  Alan Belcher

This may be a more anticipated fight that the main event, with many fans eager to see how this fight will play out. Whether or not he’s bluffing, Bisping made comments of having better Muay Thai than Belcher. While I don’t necessarily agree with that statement, Bisping may be trying to lead his opponent into pure striking mindset, which will allow Bisping the opportunity to gofor takedowns. This is a similar stategy he utilized against Brian Stann, which leads me to believe at some point during the fight, Bisping will look to take Belcher down. Belcher may be a huge middleweight, but after witnessing such impressive takedowns against a strong opponent like Brian Stann, I don’t think Belcher’s size will be enough to stop the takedown, especially if he’s sucked into a striking battle.

As a BJJ black belt, Belcher is proficient on the ground, but if Bisping takes him down, Belcher most likely won’t be able to pull off a submission off his back. Belcher has found himself on his back numerous times due to a failed guillotine attempt, a move he is quick to go for, but rearly can pull off. I know Belcher has the ability to KO the Englishman, but in the end, I think Bisping will fight a smarter fight. Also, the cardio and pressure of Bisping will give him the edge if this fight goes to a decision.

I know both fighters have improved since their past fights, but Bisping and Belcher have three opponents in common, and Bisping won all three fights, fairing much better than Belcher did. Just something else to think about.

Pick : Michael Bisping

 

Roy Nelson  vs.  Cheick Kongo

Call him a gatekeeper if you’d like, but Kongo is a skilled striker who’s always a threat. I predicted both Matt Mitrione and Shawn Jordan to defeat Kongo, and I was wrong. With that being said, my initial edge still goes to Nelson, based on the fact that he has the potential to KO Kongo like Mark Hunt was able to do. Against Nelson, Kongo will be unable to take the fight to the ground to unleash his brutal ground and pound. Regardless of Kongo’s reach advantage, Nelson’s technically improving striking and knockout power should give him the advantage on the feet, as well as his obvious grappling advantage. Both Nelson and Kongo have fought Mirko Cro Cop, Frank Mir, and Matt Mitrione, and it was Nelson who was more impressive against all three opponents.

Pick : Roy Nelson

 

Phil Davis   vs. Vinny Magalhaes

Magalhaes is one of the top Jiu-Jitsu practitioners in the UFC, and this fight could very well end with him forcing Mr. Wonderful to tap. However, there’s one critical attribute of Magalhaes that is preventing me from picking him, his cardio. Although he lost his five round fight against Rashad Evans, he still went five rounds. I don’t think Magalhaes has that kind of cardio. In his fight with Igor Pokrajak, he was visibly fatigued even towards the end of the first round, and that has be questioning whether he’ll have any gas left to threaten with submissions in the later rounds. He may win the first round, but unless he can finish before the second round, Davis should easily take the next two rounds.

Pick : Phil Davis

 

Jim Miller  vs.  Pat Healy

Healy is the bigger fighter, but that will be his only advantage. Miller has become more aggressive in his striking and overwhelmed Joe Lauzon in the first round of their fight. When it comes to the ground game, Miller has the wrestling and Jiu-Jitsu advantage. He’s a BJJ black belt under Jamie Cruz with more than half of his wins coming via submission. Healy is a proficient submission fighter as well, but just not on the level of Miller, and will be a step behind regardless of where the fight goes.

Pick : Jim Miller

 

Rustam Khabilov   vs.  Yancy Medeiros

Medeiros has won six of his nine victories by knockout, so the UFC newcomer could be successful in his debut. However, Khabilov is no stranger to opponents with a repertoire of knockouts, as he man handled Vince Pichel, who had seven of seven wins via knockout. Khabilov is an expert in sambo and has proficient submission skills, but has the ability to KO anyone with his excellent suplex. I don’t think he’ll have any problem closing the distance with Medeiros and utilizes his sambo, whether that means he out grappling him for three rounds, submitting him, or getting the KO with another awesome suplex.

Pick : Rustam Khabilov

 

Gian Villante   vs.  Ovince St. Preux

I don’t normally pick a fighter based solely on power and not necessarily skill, but I’ll make an exception and pick St. Preux. I’m really not that impressed with his striking skills, but he has knockout potential similar to that of Chris Leben in his prime. Whether or not he’s losing the striking battle or is being controlled on the ground, OSP has a unique ability to consisantly turn the fight around with his heavy punches. I think Villante will come out and take the fight down quickly and control the majority of the fight until St. Preux lands that game changing blow. Villante will be on the defensive, as OSP swarms in for the finish.

Pick : Ovince St. Preux

 

Sara McMann   vs.  Sheila Gaff

Anyone who knows McMann’s grappling crudentials knows that she’s a force to be rekoned with. Stylistically, this is a bad match up for Gaff. Her berzerker style of fighting will open up opportunities for McMann to secure a takedown where she will have a considerable advantage. I wouldn’t be surprised if Gaff catches her opponent early and force the stoppage, but if this fight goes more than thirty seconds, it’ll be McMann controlling Gaff on the matt until the fight ends via submission.

Pick : Sara McMann

 

Bryan Caraway   vs.  Johnny Bedford

Caraway is an exceptional wrestler, but Bedford is an all around good fighter. Bedford has been wrestling since age five, so even if Caraway is a tad better, Bedford is better in Jiu-Jitsu. We’re talking about a guy who triangle choked Daniel Pineda; that’s pretty sick. Bedford has really been showcasing his hands, and even finished his last two opponents via knockout. I just don’t see Caraway dominating the wrestling, so I’m pretty confident that Bedford win get his hand raised seing he clearly has more way to win than Caraway does.

Pick : Johnny Bedford

 

Leonard Garcia   vs.  Cody McKenzie

This fight all comes down to whether or not McKenzie can pull off a guillotine choke. Garcia won’t be looking to take this fight to the ground, so McKenzie will have to be the one to initiate the ground game. He isn’t necessarily a strong wrestler, so he may have to pull guard if he really wants that guillotine. Matt Grice was able to take Garcia down multiple times, but was unable to finish. Bottom line, I don’t see McKenzie taking Garcia down and being able to control him. Therefore, the fight should take place on the feet where Garcia has a huge advantage despite McKenzie’s reach.

Pick : Leonard Garcia

 

Nick Catone   vs.  James Head

Catone was impressive in his welterweight debut, and even won the first round in his fight against TJ Waldburger. However, Waldburger’s crafty submission game proved to be crafty as ever when he tapped Catone with a triangle choke. Not having anywhere near the Jiu-Jitsu skills that Waldburger possess, Head will not pose the same threat on the ground, so Catone will be able to contol him without fear of succumbing to a submission. Seeing that Catone had no problem dealing with the striking skills of Chris Camozzi for the majority of their fight, I don’t see Head’s striking giving him much trouble. If anything, the weight cut should only be easier for Catone, and his conditioning could even be better for this fight. No matter how I look at this match up, I like Catone chances and see him as a clear favorite.

Pick : Nick Catone

 

Steven Siler  vs.  Kurt Holobaugh

Holobaugh put up a good fight against Pat Healy, who is just outside of the top ten in the lightweight division. Now he’s facing a much smaller and less talented opponent (not saying that Siler isn’t a skilled fighter), so I’m giving my initial edge to Holobaugh. Siler has submission skills, but I have to think that Holobaugh has better wrestling and Jiu-Jitsu. As for the striking, if Holobaugh can perform like he did against Pat Healy, he should have the edge their too. Bottom line, I think Holobaugh will do enough to get the win, regardless of where the fight goes.

Pick : Kurt Holobaugh

 

 

Ryan “Fight Freek” Poli
@FightFreek