Unless you’re the casual MMA observer who probably thinks full guard is a deodorant, you know that Tuesday night will feature part two of the TUF quarter-finals. I went 1-1 for my part one quarter-final.
Unless you’re the casual MMA observer who probably thinks full guard is a deodorant, you know that Tuesday night will feature part two of the TUF quarter-finals. I went 1-1 for my part one quarter-final predictions, but I’m confident part two will be 2-0. So enough of the introduction formality, let’s get into these damn predictions.
Josh Samman vs. Jimmy Quinlan
Quinlan is one hell of a Jiu-Jitsu practitioner, but he forgets he’s in an MMA fight, and gets in a strict grappling mode. This nearly cost him a spot in the quarter-finals when he fought team Jones’ number one pick, Clint Hester. Ultimately, Quinlan was able to submit Hester, but Samman is more well rounded and athletic than Hester. Quinlan has less than one third the MMA experience of Samman, and if he drops his hands for even a second, he could be going to sleep just like Tor Troeng. With the exception of grappling, Samman has the superior attributes, and as long as he doesn’t get caught in a submission, he should come out on top.
Pick : Josh Samman
Bubba McDaniel vs. Uriah Hall
Unlike his first two fights, Bubba won’t have to worry about being taken down in this fight. Both Uriah and Bubba prefer to keep the fight standing, but I don’t see it going well for Bubba. Being one of the more experienced fighters in the competition, it was almost as if everyone expected Bubba to walk through his first opponent. As we know that didn’t happen, but got another chance in the wildcard fight against Kevin Casey. He was dominated in the first round, but came back in the second, causing Casey to quit. During his time on the show, it seems that Bubba has really been second guessing himself. Jon Jones even shed made comment to that, telling him he needs to start believing in his skills. Uriah is at least as skilled a striker as Bubba, if not more, and has had more success in the octagon without taking damage. There’s a great deal of hype behind this middleweight prospect, and I’m pick him to a least win a decision, if not KO this opponent.
Pick : Uriah Hall
I’d like to see both my picks get a win not only for the sake of my prediction percentage, but because a fight between Uriah Hall and Josh Samman would be an epic fight, and one I think most every MMA fan would like to see. The only thing that would make that fight better, is if it was the bout to determine the TUF winner. But I’m getting ahead of myself. We’ll come back to that fight if my predictions end up being correct.
Quarter-finals have arrived, and now the competition gets serious. Like any other Ultimate Fighter season, the quarter-fianls is when I give my prediction for each fight, and now is as good a time as any.
Quarter-finals have arrived, and now the competition gets serious. Like any other Ultimate Fighter season, the quarter-fianls is when I give my prediction for each fight, and now is as good a time as any to give my two cents. My total past TUF predictions are just over 72%, so let’s see if I can keep up the success.
Collin Hart vs. Kelvin Gastelum
Both fighters won their fights by beating their opponent on the ground. Hart was able to stifle any submission attempts from Kevin Casey, but Casey seemed content in attacking off his back, where Gastelum will look to be the one in top position. Also, Casey’s only real offense was his Jiu-Jitsu, while Bubba McDaniel was much bigger threat to Gastelum on the feet. McDaniel was seen as one of the more experienced and talented guys in the competition, so it seems to me like Gastelum was able to overcome more adversity than Hart. When it comes down to it, I see Gastelum outworking Hart wherever the fight goes. The wrestling may be close, but Gastelum is just dying to showcase his knockout power.
Pick : Kelvin Gastelum
Dylan Andrews vs. Luck Barnatt
The first pick of the season vs. the last pick of the season, who do you think I’ll pick? Like Chael Sonnen said, Barnatt outworked everyone. This guy can strike with you, take you down, and sweep you when he’s taken down. As the tallest fighter, he has one hell of a reach advantage, and quite honestly, I don’t know how Andrews could possibly come out the victor. Zak Cummings was lighting him up on the feet, and even had him in some bad positions. Andrews eventually reversed the position, and Cummings didn’t have an answer. Against Barnatt, I don’t see the fight playing out the same at all. Barnatt will defend all takedown attempts, and if his takes Andrews down, He’ll keep him down.
Pick : Luke Barnatt
Still two more quarter-final match ups to go, and two more days to see if the fights turn out anything like I predicted. Hopefully bragging rights will be in order. As always, welcome to your comments pertaining to the fights, regardless whether you agree or not.
So Josh my have gotten the win in our little prediction war for UFC 158, but I’m sorry, Bobby Voelker absolutely should have won that fight against Patrick Cote. Now had the judges scored that.
So Josh my have gotten the win in our little prediction war for UFC 158, but I’m sorry, Bobby Voelker absolutely should have won that fight against Patrick Cote. Now had the judges scored that fight correctly, I would have come out on top that night 2-1 in our three fight dissension battle. Nonetheless, I still have one win on him.
It’s dissension at its best, the ongoing prediction battle between MMAfix.com writers, Ryan “Fight Freek” Poli and Josh Leduc.
Alexander Gustafsson vs. Gegard Mousasi
Fight Freek’s thoughts : Gustafsson’s last win was over Shogun, while Mousasi’s was over Mike Kyle, who is no where near the top ten in the light heavyweight division. I applaued Mousasi for his wins over Ovince St. Preux and Hiroshi Izumi, but again, not as impressive as beating Thiago Silva or Shogun. Gustafsson is a giant light heavyweight, with excellent boxing. Now mix in superb takedown defense, and Gegard will have a hell of a hard time figuring out how to win this one.
Pick : Alexander Gustafsson
Josh’s thoughts : Mousasi’s has excellent striking, with an top notch submission game as well. The mauler used his size advantage to beat Shogun, but Mousasi has beating larger opponents before using nothing more than his superior technical abilities. Bottom line, Gustafsson’s striking and grappling skills aren’t nearly as diverse, and Mousasi will have more ways to win.
Pick : Gegard Mousasi
Tor Troeng vs. Adam Cella
Fight Freek’s thoughts : Tor was clipped bad in his loss on the Ultimate Fighter, but his fight to get into the house was more impressive than that of Cella’s. Not to mention, he’s has five times the professional experience, and his only loss in twelve fights was to the former UFC middleweight title contender, Thales Leites. Too Many factors in Tor’s corner for me to side with Cella.
Pick : Tor Troeng
Josh’s thoughts : Cella lost to Uriah Hall, who may be the best fighter on this TUF season. Tor, not so much. In only four professional fights, Cella has stopped all his opponents. Two by submission, and two by KO. I’m going with Cella’s well rounded skills, and ability to finish.
Pick : Adam Cella
And for the record, here’s the rest of our picks that we agree on…
Akira Corassani vs. Robbie Peralta Corassani is a skilled fighter, but I dissagreed with the judges when he was awarded the decision win over Andy Ogle. On more than one occasion, Ogle landed.
Akira Corassani vs. Robbie Peralta
Corassani is a skilled fighter, but I dissagreed with the judges when he was awarded the decision win over Andy Ogle. On more than one occasion, Ogle landed a solid strike that turned the fight in his favor. I guess the judges thought Corassani did enough to negate the damage, but Peralta will ring his bell a lot harder. When I think of Robbie Peralta, one thing comes to mind; knockout! After seeing the damage that Ogle did to Corassani, I’m betting on a first round knockout for Peralta.
Pick : Robbie Peralta
Diego Brandao vs. Pablo Garza
Close fight to call. Garza had a big win over Mark Hominick, but he was defeated by Dennis Bermudez; a fighter Brandao submitted. Garza striking has improved, but Brandao should have the striking advantage, and should be able to keep the fight standing. If Brandao had such a close fight with Darren Elkins, a strong wrestler, the less powerful takedowns of Garza shouldn’t pose much of a threat to the Brazilian. If his striking looks tip top, Bradao should be able to put a flurry together and finish the lanky Garza.
Pick : Diego Brandao
Brad Pickett vs. Mike Easton
Striking, Wrestling, Jiu-Jitsu; Brad Pickett does it all. Easton is a hell of a fighter, but Raphael Assuncao gave him more than a few problems on the feet, as well as the ground. Cardio shouldn’t be an issue for either fighter, but I see nothing stopping Pickett from taking Easton down. Seeing Easton is a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt, I don’t see him getting submitted, and probably KO’d either. In the end, Pickett will dictate where the fight goes, and win by whatever means necessary.
Pick : Brad Pickett
Matt Mitrione vs. Phil De Fries
De Fries has impressive Jiu-Jitsu and improved boxing skills, but Mitrione has already beaten Christian Morecraft and Time Hague; fighters who have similar skills on the same level. I agree that this is an appropriate match up, but Mitrione will just be a little more well rounded, and more skilled.
Pick : Matt Mitrione
Ryan Couture vs. Ross Pearson
As much as I like seeing Couture rise to new levels to defeats higher level opponents, I think this is where it stops. Like George Sotiropolous, Couture is more Jiu-Jitsu and not so much pure wrestling. Pearson defended the takedown well against Sotiropolous, and should be more than capable of doing the same against Couture. Now the fight is on the feet, giving Pearson a huge advantage. I’m hoping Couture’s chin can withstand three rounds with Pearson, but he’ll lose a decision.
Pick : Ross Pearson
Alexander Gustafsson vs. Gegard Mousasi
No beating around the bush with this one, I got the Mauler. Gustafsson’s last win was over Shogun, while Mousasi’s was over Mike Kyle, who is no where near the top ten in the light heavyweight division. I applaued Mousasi for his wins over Ovince St. Preux and Hiroshi Izumi, but again, not as impressive as beating Thiago Silva or Shogun. Gustafsson is a giant light heavyweight, with excellent boxing. Now mix in superb takedown defense, and I don’t know how Mousasi can win this fight.
Mike Ricci vs. Colin Fletcher Ricci may be moving back down to the lightweight division, but Fletcher is one of the larger lightweights with a significant reach advantage. Essentially, Ricci will be.
Mike Ricci vs. Colin Fletcher
Ricci may be moving back down to the lightweight division, but Fletcher is one of the larger lightweights with a significant reach advantage. Essentially, Ricci will be facing a same problem as he did when he fought Colten Smith; avoid the going to the ground with the larger fighter. Fletcher doesn’t possess equal wrestling skills as Colten Smith, but his Jiu-Jitsu is more impressive, so instead of holding Ricci down for three rounds, Fletcher will be looking for a submission opening. Ricci will have the striking advantage, but he’ll have to get on the inside of Fletcher’s reach. Instead of a traditional wrestling takedown, Fletcher will look to clinch and try to trip the leg to get this fight he’ll have to be careful not to close the distance when his opponent is also coming forward. In three rounds, I find it more likely that Freak show can get Ricci down and find a submission opening, rather than suffer a KO.
Pick : Colin Fletcher
Nick Ring vs. Chris Camozzi
It’s true that Ring has a few controversial wins on his recond, but they were against respectable opponents, and it wasn’t as if he was absolutely dominated in those fights. Camozzi on the other hand, was clearly losing to Nick Catone for over two rounds, but a cut that Catone had sustained caused the ref to stop the fight, which awarded the win to Camozzi. His win over Luiz Cane had me thinking that perhaps I was too critical of his skills, but part of me still credits that victory to Cane’s lack of conditioning and not necessarily Camozzi’s exceptional skill. Whether both fighters look their best or their worst, I see the majority of skillsets laying with Ring. It may be another controversial win, but it will be a win nonetheless.
Pick : Nick Ring
Jake Ellenberger vs. Nate Marquardt
Marquardt didn’t look like the same fighter that KO’d Tyrone Woodley in his fight with Tarec Saffiedine. Whether it was bad game planning or a harsh weight cut, I’m extremely hesitant to put my confidence in the former Strikeforce champ. Ellenberger on the the other hand, has had a constant performance in nearly all of his fights. Even in his loss to Martin Kampmann, Ellenberger completely dominated the Danish kick boxer, and nearly finished the fight in the second round. Kampmann made a strong comeback in the second, but still many fans protested the possible early stoppage. Even Dana White was one of those who complained that the fight was stopped too early. Ellenberger is now only a wrestler, he has developed proficient boxing. Now it may not compare to the kickboxing of Marquardt, but by mixing up his striking and wrestling, Ellenberger will have enough tools to win a close decision.
Pick : Jake Ellenberger
Carlos Condit vs. Johny Hendricks
The top two welterweights behind GSP are squaring off, and damn this is a tough fight to call. Condit will have the superior technical striking and Jiu-Jitsu, with Hendricks having better wrestling and a clear advantage in knockout power. Neither fighter seems to have a cardio problem, so this fight could play out multiple ways. Condit could always use his footwork and reach to out strike Hendricks for three rounds, or he could be on the wrong side of a crippling left hand, which could end the fight in under a minute. I don’t see Hendricks getting caught with a head kick or flying knee, and like Rory MacDonald and GSP, he can utilize his wrestling to control Condit for multiple rounds. Bottom line, I see Condit as a slightly more well rounded Martin Kampmann, and we all know what Hendricks did to the Hitman. Condit will be guessing whether he has to stuff a takedown, or be on the lookout for the left hand, and this will frustrate him and slow his combinations. I don’t’ believe Condit will get finished, but Bigg Rigg will pull off a close decision win.
Pick : Johny Hendricks
George St-Pierre vs. Nick Diaz
As much as some fans despise Diaz, you have to admit that he’s extremely talented. However, if I had to put money on one fighter to win, it would be GSP. If Diaz tries the same strategy he utilized against Carlos Condit, he will get annihilated by the champ. For every split second Diaz drops his hands, GSP will catch him with his long jab, the same jab that made Josh Koscheck’s eye swell up to the size of a grape fruit. The cardio of Diaz has always been on of his strongest weapons, but against fighters with exceptional cardio, his still possibly superior conditioning, gives him little edge if any. Sean Sherk and Carlos Condit had no issue fading in their fight with Diaz, which gave him no real advantage. Also the Jiu-Jitsu and boxing of Diaz are some of his more utilized tools in his arsenal, but which the wrestling of GSP, and the distance he chooses to fight at, I doubt that Diaz will be able to capitalize. In this fight, Diaz’s strongest attributes simply won’t be enough to dethrone the Canadian, and the champ will ground out another unanimous decision.
