The UFC will celebrate its 20th anniversary in style with a stacked UFC 167 card on Saturday night.
Not only will we get to see a highly anticipated Georges St-Pierre title defense against dangerous challenger Johny Hendricks, but the rest of the card features a slew of high-profile fighters looking to make a statement—not the least of which is a co-main event between light heavyweight mainstays Chael Sonnen and Rashad Evans.
Here’s a quick look at the latest odds for the night’s biggest fights along with predictions for each.
All statistics via FightMetric.com unless otherwise noted.
St-Pierre Grinds Out Another Decision
According to John Candido of ESPN (Insider subscription required), on Saturday night, St-Pierre will face his lowest odds since fighting B.J. Penn at UFC 94 in 2009. That’s for good reason; Hendricks has faced a who’s who of the welterweight division and has just one loss on the ledger.
Hendricks’s power in the stand-up game is a legitimate concern for the champion. He’s scored first-round knockouts finishes of Amir Sadollah, TJ Waldburger, Jon Fitch and Martin Kampmann in his time with the UFC. Throw in the fact that St-Pierre has been caught by Carlos Condit and Nick Diaz in his last two fights and the recipe for a Hendricks upset begins to take shape.
The problem is that we’ve been here before. While Hendricks has the one-punch power to turn the fight on its ear at any moment, he also absorbs 3.04 strikes per minute to GSP‘s 1.23.
Expect GSP to outbox Hendricks standing and score enough takedowns to secure yet another decision victory.
Sonnen Smothers Evans for Victory
The co-main event between Chael Sonnen and Rashad Evans may not be for a belt, but it’s every bit as interesting as the main event that it precedes.
Both Sonnen and Evans have reputations in the sport as great wrestlers, but only one of them continues to practice that reputation. That would be Sonnen.
While Evans has landed exactly one takedown in his last three fights (all of which went the distance), Sonnen has landed three in his last three bouts (which totaled five rounds).
That means Evans will likely look to utilize his quickness and advantage in the stand-up department to out-strike Sonnen. That’s going to be a tall order, however. Sonnen absorbs less than a strike per minute (0.94).
Anderson Silva and Jon Jones may have been able to pick apart Sonnen on the feet. But Evans hasn’t proven himself to be at their level. Sonnen‘s toughness and willingness to stick to his wrestling should be the difference in this one.
MacDonald Will Continue Ascension Despite Tough Test from Lawler
Don’t let the odds fool you, rising star Rory MacDonald faces a tough test on Saturday night against Robbie Lawler.
Lawler has spent much of his career as middling middleweight, but he is in the midst of a career resurgence at welterweight. He’s now 2-0 with two very impressive knockout victories since re-joining the UFC as a welterweight.
Knockouts aren’t anything new for Lawler, either. He’s earned 18 of his 21 career victories via (T)KO and has the power to stun MacDonald at any time.
MacDonald deserves to be the favorite. Outside of GSP, there aren’t many fighters at welterweight who are more complete. But it is important to note that MacDonald’s last loss came from a veteran striker in Carlos Condit. MacDonald has gotten much better since then, but it doesn’t mean he’s completely immune to getting in trouble against Lawler.
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