There’s only one way Mark “Super Samoan” Hunt can defeat Fabricio Werdum on Saturday night at UFC 180: He has to land a huge shot that puts Werdum away.
If Hunt doesn’t connect with one of his explosive right hands, he’ll be picked apart all night and ultimately submitted. While everyone has to have some affinity for the proverbial puncher’s chance, if I was putting money on it, I’d bet on Werdum.
Over the last few years, Werdum has evolved from a one-dimensional submission specialist to a well-rounded mixed martial artist. His muay thai skills are now among the best in the heavyweight division. This was never more clearly on display than in April when Werdum dismantled Travis Browne.
Most would have expected Werdum to try to take the fight with Browne to the mat. Instead, he landed more than twice as many strikes than his taller opponent (121-60, per FightMetric) and won a lopsided unanimous decision.
There’s no reason to believe Werdum won’t do the same thing to Hunt. Werdum has the edge in length, quickness and overall skill. Hunt is plenty powerful, but Werdum won’t be caught with the haymaker that changes the fight.
Here’s a look at my predictions for the entire card and some insight into the co-feature.
Jake Ellenberger Can’t Win the Semi-Big One
It seems every time Jake “The Juggernaut” Ellenberger gets an opportunity in a big fight, he fails. He’s currently on a two-fight losing streak after losing to Robbie Lawler and Rory MacDonald. There’s no shame in losing to either of those men. Both are among the four best 170-pound fighters in the world.
Before Ellenberger dominated fringe contenders Nate Marquardt and Jay Hieron, he was stopped by Martin Kampmann when it seemed The Juggernaut was knocking on the door for a title shot.
I might be premature in saying this, but he’s beginning to look like the Michael Bisping of welterweights: A guy who seems to be good enough to call himself elite, yet he can’t capture the win that validates him.
In order to change this perception, Ellenberger desperately needs to beat Kelvin Gastelum on Saturday. A three-fight losing streak shouldn’t put Ellenberger on the cut line, but it should banish him from the main-card scene for the time being.
The cut line would, of course, be next.
Gastelum doesn’t have a particular skill that jumps out at you, though he is a very good wrestler. However, he has great energy, he’s physically strong and he seems to work tirelessly at his craft. He’s also very smart in the cage and has shown the ability to game plan for opponents who are more talented physically.
This was the case at The Ultimate Fighter season 17 finale when Gastelum upset the extraordinarily talented Uriah Hall to win the TUF title. Gastelum has had some issues with his weight, but he says those problems are behind him.
Per Damon Martin of Fox Sports, Gastelum said, “I know everybody wants to know where my weight is. I completely understand. Once I hit the scales and I look the best I’ve ever been, all those questions will be gone.”
Gastelum is 10-0 and looking for more success. I’m predicting he finds it against Ellenberger. Traditionally, Ellenberger has had problems with strong strikers. Lawler, MacDonald and Kampmann all have that talent.
Against Ellenberger, Gastelum will have to prove he has the striking ability to make his opponent respect him. Gastelum has been training with Mike Dolce leading into this fight. He’ll be more limber and agile. That’ll be the difference in the stand-up exchanges and the fight overall.
Knees have been Ellenberger‘s undoing in his bouts against Lawler and Kampmann. A short shot on the inside from Gastelum will again thwart The Juggernaut. Expect a TKO win for Gastelum.
Follow Brian Mazique on Twitter. I dig boxing and MMA.
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