The UFC returns to the birth spot of modern MMA this weekend, when it presents UFC 190 live from Rio de Janeiro on Saturday. Women’s bantamweight champion Ronda Rousey will defend against Brazil’s own Bethe Correia, and the legendary Nogueira twins will once more fight before their countrymen at the age of 39.
The main event is perhaps the biggest mismatch in the history of title fights in combat sports. Correia is a game and gutsy athlete who has maintained an impressively energetic punch rate over the course of her nine-fight career.
But Rousey is a straight-up assassin. She was an Olympic bronze medalist in judo, while Correia started training in martial arts as a post-college hobby. Even if they were athletic equals, Rousey has spent her entire life training to throw opponents, snap their arms or choke them out.
And they are not even athletic equals. To reach the elite levels of international women’s judo requires a level of athleticism that isn’t required for women’s MMA.
Kenny Florian stated a widely held opinion Friday when he told Shaun Al-Shatti of MMAFighting.com that Correia beating Rousey would be “the biggest upset in UFC history.”
There’s been speculation for months that Rousey is going to punish Correia out of personal animosity and delay the fight. Once the competition starts, though, the honed athlete in Rousey will likely follow the quickest and surest path to victory and submit Correia in fast, dominant fashion.
The remainder of the main card offers a more competitive selection of fights.
Mauricio “Shogun” Rua vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira
Between five and 10 years ago, this fight would have been something special as a matchup. At that time, Mauricio Rua would have been the clear pick, but the slowing hands of time make this one more competitive than it might have been in an earlier era.
But Rua remains the favorite. Bleacher Report’s MMA team broke down 4-1 in favor of Shogun. Fox Sport’s Elias Cepeda picked Rua as well.
On the other hand, MMA Mania’s Jesse Holland picked Antonio Rogerio Nogueira to grind out the unanimous decision.
Glaico Franca vs. Fernando Bruno
This is a battle of outstanding Brazilian lightweights and should feature high-level grappling from both men. Fernando Bruno is nearly a decade older, and Glaico Franca is the more explosive athlete.
The Bleacher Report staff split closely on this fight, going 3-2 in favor of Bruno. Holland went with Franca to win via TKO, and Cepeda also went with Franca.
Reginaldo Vieira vs. Dileno Lopes
This bantamweight bout features one fighter who was given a second chance in the Brazilian version of The Ultimate Fighter house, as Reginaldo Vieira was allowed back into the tournament after Giovanni Santos withdrew.
This is the other fight on the card, besides the main event, where there is a wide consensus. Holland has Dileno Lopes by unanimous decision. The Bleacher Report staff was unanimous in picking Lopes, and Cepeda chose him as well.
Stefan Struve vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
In his prime, Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira would have been the clear favorite to win this fight. He had the boxing skill to get inside of the 6’10” Stefan Struve and light him up from inside the pocket. One of the sport’s great grapplers, he could have put Struve on the ground and made him tap.
But Struve is a dangerous striker, and at 39, Nogueira is a badly faded version of himself and has already absorbed too much punishment in his career. The Bleacher Report staff went 4-1 in favor of Struve. Cepeda and Holland both picked Struve as well.
Antonio Silva vs. Soa Palelei
Antonio “Big Foot” Silva is a longtime fixture at the elite level of MMA heavyweights, but he’s on the downside of his career. He’s 2-5-1 in his last eight fights.
But keep in mind that he compiled that record against a murderer’s row. Soa Palelei is a big, hulking heavyweight, but he hasn’t faced anything like the competition Silva has.
The Bleacher Report staff was split in picking Palelei 3-2, but it was unanimous in seeing the fight decided inside of the first two rounds. Holland picked Palelei by knockout, and Cepeda predicted Silva to prevail via decision.
Claudia Gadelha vs. Jessica Aguilar
This should prove to be an important contender’s fight in the women’s 115-pound division as Jessica Aguilar makes her highly anticipated UFC debut. There is a lot of potential for excitement here.
Holland predicted that Claudia Gadelha will provide a rude reception for Aguilar, winning a unanimous decision. Four of five picked the same way for Bleacher Report, with just Scott Harris going out on a limb for the newcomer.
Cepeda made it a near-sweep, going for Gadelha as well.
Projected Winners
| Fighter A | Fighter B | Projected Winner |
| Ronda Rousey | Bethe Correia | Rousey by Round 1 Armbar |
| Mauricio Rua | Antonio Rogerio Nogueira | Rua by Round 2 TKO |
| Glaico Franca | Fernando Bruno | Franca by Round 3 TKO |
| Reginaldo Vieira | Dileno Lopes | Lopes by Unanimous Decision |
| Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira | Stefan Struve | Struve by Unanimous Decision |
| Antonio Silva | Soa Palelei | Silva by Round 2 TKO |
| Claudia Gadelha | Jessica Aguilar | Gadelha by Unanimous Decision |
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