We’re almost there. UFC 193 is just a couple days away, and it’s that time that like-minded degenerates start looking at the betting lines to plan their moves for the top of the ticket. And for UFC 193 that top of the ticket is severely tilted in one direction.
The champions competing at UFC 193—Ronda Rousey and Joanna Jedrzejczyk—are not just favorites or even overwhelming favorites, they are monumental favorites.
The strawweight champion, Jedrzejczyk, meets Valerie Letourneau in the co-main event. Letourneau failed to make The Ultimate Fighter house back when Rousey and Miesha Tate were coaching but has put in a 3-0 record in the organization. That includes one fight at 135-pounds against Elizabeth Phillips.
Rousey‘s opposition is former boxing champion, Holly Holm. She is undefeated in MMA with UFC victories over Raquel Pennington and Marion Reneau. She skipped over Tate and others to the front of the line in spite of being only the No. 7-ranked contender in the division.
Bleacher Report’s Nathan McCarter and Steven Rondina got together to discuss the betting lines and possible options heading into UFC 193.
Steven: It’s been a long time since the UFC had such a strong crop of champions. Heck, I’d say it’s the most invincible group since the days when B.J. Penn, Georges St-Pierre, Anderson Silva and Brock Lesnar were all holding UFC gold. The bettors seem to agree, and it’s definitely reflected in the lines for UFC 193. According to OddsShark.com, the Ronda Rousey vs. Holly Holm is as lopsided as -2000 vs. +1000. The other championship fight, Joanna Jedrzejczyk vs. Valerie Letourneau, is pretty much the same, with lines as skewed as -2250 vs. +950.
Obviously, Rousey and Double-J are the favorites heading into UFC 193…but is it just me or are those lines just a tad bit crazy?
Nathan: Based upon the matchups, the odds accurately reflect where we are heading into UFC 193. I suppose some may be a bit surprised by Jedrzejczyk being a bigger favorite than Rousey, but Holm‘s background and style give her a bit more respect than Letourneau.
Letourneau does have a little pop in her punches, but there is nothing to her game that should give Jedrzejczyk any trouble this Saturday. Nothing for the oddsmakers to lessen the gap between her and the champion. The Rousey fight is clearly more intriguing in regards to what will happen, but Joanna Champion’s bout looks to be a pure highlight reel to broaden her scope under the bright light Rousey brings.
Steven: I agree with you, in theory, but -2250 feels absolutely insane for somebody with just ten professional fights. Obviously, it’s easy to buy into Jedrzejczyk (and I’m pretty bullish on her), but I can already see every hindsight extraordinaire saying that she was overrated based on her performances against undersized competition, and there was no reason to expect a lengthy title reign from her. As for Rousey vs. Holm, the real homie Chad Dundas kind of summed up her chances perfectly.
With those kinds of lines, though, there’s no real value in betting outside the props. What’s the play there, do you think? Are you seeing any serious value?
Nathan: That’s a difficult question to answer only because each individual has a different sense of what value is, and it is also relative to the fight itself. Rousey via submission is currently -215. I think that has substantial value for who we are talking about in this fight. Also, the fight getting to Round 2 is +214, and Round 3 is +419. As Patrick Wyman discussed, Holm‘s methodical style puts those props in play. Additional prop bets such as Rousey winning the fight in the second come in at +530 which may be worth a bet. Rousey taking the scrap in the third is at +1300.
The props for Jedrzejczyk-Letourneau aren’t as enticing, but there is still value. Joanna Champion winning by TKO is hanging around at -275 right now.
It comes down to how much of a risk the bettor wants to take.
Steven: I’d agree with you on Jedrzejczyk-Letourneau. There is some intrigue there, specifically looking at props based on which round Jedrzejczyk wins in (Jedrzejczyk winning in Round 2 is sitting at +350, Round 3 at +600 and Round 4 at +850), but I wouldn’t necessarily start making an account on any site to get in on that action.
The most interesting bets for Rousey-Holm, I think, lie in these new (for MMA, at least) minute-by-minute bets. Think Rousey wins in the opening minute? That’s +215. 1:01 through 2:00? +300. That goes all the way up to the final minute of Round 1, which is sitting at a hefty +1450. That’s got to be the play for anybody expecting a first-round win for Ronda, right?
Nathan: I disagree, but I’m also not one to take too specific of a shot. If I can get Rousey by submission at any time within the first round, that is much more favorable, to me, than risking a bet on a 60-second window. Talking specifically about this fight, I worry because of how Rousey may take this fight more slowly due to Holm‘s style.
I do like the round-by-round odds for Jedrzejczyk though. Letourneau can take some shots, and all of Joanna Champion’s bouts have gone past the first round. There’s a strong likelihood that it will go past five minutes.
At the end of the day, it’s all about risk and what the bettor can handle. Given some of the props, I am sure we will see some good success stories come Sunday morning.
(All moneylines are courtesy of OddsShark.com, and all prop bets are courtesy of BestFightOdds.com)
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