UFC 195 will bring in 2016 with a fan-friendly main event between Robbie Lawler and Carlos Condit. If the two fighters’ past is any indication, it should serve as a harbinger for a violent year.
Lawler has been on a tear in his current title run. Ruthless has lived up to his moniker with a knockout victory in his first title defense against Rory MacDonald, a split-decision win over Johny Hendricks and wins over Jake Ellenberger and Matt Brown.
Condit will be the next in a line of tough opponents Lawler has fought on his journey to the top. The Natural Born Killer earned the shot by virtue of a second-round TKO win over Thiago Alves but has also picked up the finish in 28 of his 30 wins.
Here’s a look at how the two match up, along with the latest odds for the bout from Odds Shark:
You won’t find a more evenly matched fight according to the odds. Vegas has this one pegged as a pick ’em with the champion opening as a slight favorite. Here’s a look at why a case could be made for both fighters, along with a final prediction as to who leaves UFC 195 with the belt.
Why Carlos Condit Can Take the Belt
Looking at the recent history between both of these fighters, it doesn’t feel like the odds should be this close. While Lawler has laid much of the division to waste, Condit has come up short in three of his last five fights.
However, fights aren’t about past results, they are about matchups, and Condit matches up in interesting ways against Lawler.
First, his technical striking is on par if not better than Lawler’s. According to the Tale of the Tape offered up by Reed Kuhn of Fightnomics, his overall stand-up ratio of 1.7 is much better than Lawler’s 0.8:
Essentially, what that means is that Condit is adept at ensuring that he’s landing more than his opponent is landing. The Jackson-Winkeljohn fighter is a powerful striker, but he’s just as good at sticking and moving as he is unloading power shots.
His ability to utilize a diverse array of strikes from range gives him a chance to outpoint Lawler over the course of a five-round fight, much like his unanimous-decision win over Nick Diaz. However, his ability to turn a fight on its his head with his power must be taken into account, a la his knockout win over Dong Hyun Kim.
It’s his knockout power that has Luke Thomas of MMA Fighting picking the challenger:
Lawler has more skills in the totality of his game and isn’t reluctant to wrestle necessarily, but when Condit lands, he does so with the ability to make the fight’s trajectory change instantly. Even if one is diversifying offense against him and winning rounds, Condit can change the balance of power almost instantly. Lawler’s chin is by no means compromised. It’s even good, but it’s not great and one combination from Condit can rearrange everything. I like the challenger’s chances here even if I’m not convinced he’s the best welterweight in the division.
Why Robbie Lawler Can Defend the Title
Put simply, Robbie Lawler can defend his title because he’s done it before.
There’s a reason both examples of Condit’s victories came from 2012 or later. He only has two wins since beating Diaz in 2012.
Lawler is 7-1 in that time span, with his only loss coming against Hendricks by split decision. There’s no doubt Ruthless has the better resume of late.
Beyond that, there are plenty of areas in which Lawler has the upper hand. Not the least of which is chin. As noted in Kuhn’s infographic, Lawler has only been knocked down one time in all of the UFC fights he analyzed. Meanwhile Condit has been knocked down three times.
Both fighters have been noted for their duarbility. They’ve each been knocked out just once in their respective careers. However, Lawlers has proven to be even more durable, surviving slugfests with Henrdricks and MacDonald in recent outings.
It’s his recent form that has experts like Bleacher Report’s Pat Wyman going with the reigning champion in this one:
Lawler just seems to be operating on another level right now. He’s beaten better competition more recently and has shown an incredible ability to adapt to what his opponent’s giving him. We know Condit will probably start a bit slowly, and Lawler can take advantage of that by banking the early rounds. He might even hit hard enough to dent the ultra-durable Condit.
The more likely scenario, however, points to a back-and-forth bloodbath. Lawler is the pick by decision in a potential fight-of-the-year matchup.
In addition to the advantages Lawler holds in the stand-up department, he’s also the slightly better offensive wrestler. He doesn’t go to it often, but he took down Matt Brown twice and happens to average more takedowns per 15 minutes than the challenger.
Prediction
Many who are picking Lawler point to the string of victories that Lawler has put together in his last three fights. However, those bouts could also be a detriment.
He absorbed 279 significant strikes in those three bouts since July 2014.
Even though Lawler fights with technique, his bouts have oftentimes looked like Rock ‘Em Sock ‘Em Robots. It’s a pattern that’s reason for pause heading into yet another bout with a potent striker.
Condit, meanwhile, has fought just twice in that same time frame and absorbed a total of 48 significant strikes. Though he’s been slowed by injuries, he hasn’t engaged in the battles that Lawler has.
In a bout that promises to be yet another battle, that could be the difference. Expect both fighters to land with regularity as Lawler attempts to defend his belt in another blaze of glory.
However, the fact that Condit has taken a little less damage recently and can kickbox his way to win a round or two from the champion without engaging in a firefight gives him the slight edge.
Prediction: Condit by decision.
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