Conor McGregor will be the underdog should he make the move up to the UFC’s lightweight division and fight titleholder Rafael dos Anjos as he is expected to.
Speaking to MMAjunkie, oddsmaker Joey Oddessa said Dos Anjos would “rightfully” be the 145-point favorite should the pair clash as expected at UFC 197:
Conor McGregor has defied the odds, and in spite of him being the betting favorite at fight time in all of his previous bouts at the majority of sports books, he enters UFC 197 as a small underdog at +115 in the early lines that are posted almost a dozen weeks out—and rightfully so.
Conor is stepping up a full weight class to challenge Rafael dos Anjos for the lightweight championship after coming off a spectacular, record-breaking knockout of Jose Aldo, who was widely regarded as the No. 1 pound-for-pound fighter in the world.
McGregor has made no secret of his desire to move up in weight after running through the featherweight class, culminating in the 13-second knockout of Aldo at UFC 194 in December.
Bleacher Report’s Jeremy Botter broke the news in early January that The Notorious would be announced by the UFC as Dos Anjos’ next opponent for a meeting at UFC 197 in March:
While McGregor has mown through a list of featherweight contenders, Dos Anjos has been similarly dominant at lightweight in recent times, defeating Anthony Pettis, Nate Diaz, Donald Cerrone and Benson Henderson since August 2014.
Oddessa added the importance of feeling comfortable in any weight class, and while McGregor’s ascension has been unstoppable, he’s yet to fight at lightweight in the UFC:
Rafael dos Anjos has won 10 of his last 11 bouts, and size and experience do matter. It’s easy to make excuses for Aldo losing the fight, but the fact is Conor proved he is legit. But in this instance, I think he bit off more than he can chew.
European supporters of Conor are going to have to go really heavy to the betting windows to flip Conor to the favorite. Many of the advantages he enjoyed over Aldo, including a year layoff and displeasure with the organization, are two burdens that Rafael won’t have to enter the Octagon with. Rafael will, however, be carrying with him a size, skill and weight advantage.
That isn’t to say the Dubliner is lacking experience at 155 pounds (70.3 kilograms), however. He left Cage Warriors in 2012 as a dual-weight champion, having beaten Ivan Buchinger for the promotion’s lightweight belt in his final bout under their banner.
Botter also suggested McGregor’s days at featherweight are far from over, stating his belief the Irishman will move back down to take on Frankie Edgar later in 2016:
That’s a fixture that could take place whatever the outcome may be against Dos Anjos. Should McGregor lose to the Brazilian, a move back down to featherweight would be expected, while a win would allow him to once again take his pick of any fight reportedly on the table.
As much as McGregor wants to vie for the lightweight title, it’s a fixture Dos Anjos is also seeking, according to his coach, Rafael Cordeiro, who told Sherdog‘s Marcelo Alonso the fight is as good as sealed:
We didn’t receive an official 100 percent confirmation from the UFC, but that’s something we’re waiting on. From our part, it’s already signed. It’s important to make it clear that this was a request from McGregor. Rafael is really happy to “welcome” him in a brutal way to the lightweight division.
Dos Anjos’ suitability at lightweight is a heavy influence on the odds, especially when one considers he was even able to defeat Diaz in December 2014 in a 160-pound catchweight fight.
Some considered McGregor the underdog for his shockingly short bout with Aldo last month, but he showed how well he can cope with such pressure. According to the latest odds, he’ll have to do it once more against Dos Anjos.
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