Groans were heard across the world when a foot injury forced Rafael dos Anjos to pull out of his UFC 196 bout against Conor McGregor.
McGregor, the featherweight champion, seems constantly stricken by opponents who can’t make it to fight night. But then Nate Diaz was announced as the replacement opponent, and all was right with the world. Dos Anjos is a champion, but Diaz is truly one of the most interesting fights available for McGregor in the UFC, and the interest in UFC 196—after briefly declining from the dos Anjos announcement—shot right back through the roof.
The most interesting part of the Diaz news? The fight would take place at 170 pounds. McGregor, who last fought at 145, would be jumping up two weight classes for a fight against a mercurial and skilled opponent who is well-versed in the art of trash talking.
You want to talk about anticipation? This is anticipation.
So what happens if McGregor goes in the cage and smokes Diaz? What happens next? He has already noted that he wants to fight at UFC 200, which means he’ll be turning around to face an unknown opponent at the biggest event in UFC history. It is a landmark moment that requires a landmark opponent.
Today, I take a look at the three potential options for McGregor’s opponent at UFC 200.
Frankie Edgar
This is the one that receives the most fervent support from hardcore fans. Edgar has been a fan favorite for years, and he has garnered even more support due to the belief that he has been constantly passed over for a featherweight title shot despite being the most deserving candidate. We tend to root for the underdog, and Edgar—despite a Hall of Fame-worthy UFC career—has been considered the smaller underdog for much of his career.
But I’ve got some bad news for Edgar supporters: Unless Edgar moves up to 155 pounds, it is unlikely that he’ll ever get a chance to face McGregor for a championship.
Prior to McGregor’s title fight against Jose Aldo at UFC 194, the word from his camp was that the bout would be the Irishman’s final time fighting at featherweight. Win, lose or draw, he was going to move up and seek his fortunes elsewhere. McGregor is a large featherweight, perhaps even the biggest in the division, and the weight cuts he had to endure to make the featherweight limit were grueling fits of torture. On weigh-in days, he was gaunt and pale, a mere shadow of his usual self.
I don’t know this for sure, but I have a feeling McGregor never fights at featherweight again. Even if he loses an eventual title challenge to dos Anjos, I don’t think he’ll ever defend the featherweight title. The weight cut is just too much, and McGregor is well aware of the damaging effects those drastic cuts can have on his body. McGregor has already begun packing on the pounds, and it is hard to imagine him losing that weight for a return to defend his championship.
Edgar is certainly deserving of a title shot, and he is getting a bit of a raw deal here. But if he’s intent on waiting for a shot at McGregor, he’ll be waiting awhile. It’s much more likely that Edgar faces Aldo or Max Holloway for a vacant featherweight title. It won’t be as satisfying as getting his chance to beat McGregor, but it’s a title fight all the same.
Rafael dos Anjos
This was the fight we all wanted to see, and we were well on our way until a broken foot forced the lightweight champion to pull out of the fight. Now, dos Anjos must sit on the sidelines while he heals.
It makes sense to book the dos Anjos/McGregor fight as soon as dos Anjos is ready, perhaps even at UFC 200. It has been booked once already, after all, and we all want to see how McGregor would fare against the sublime skills the lightweight champion has developed over the past few years.
But UFC 196 could force this bout to the backburner. If McGregor goes in the Octagon next Saturday and demolishes Diaz, there will be plenty of people (myself included) who would rather see him go after the welterweight title instead of lightweight. I do want to see McGregor and dos Anjos at some point, and I think we will. But a crushing win over Diaz might change my priorities around, because the idea of McGregor going after Robbie Lawler is a tantalizing one.
Robbie Lawler
If McGregor can beat Diaz, and do so in convincing fashion, this is the fight I want for UFC 200.
I prefer it over a dos Anjos fight for many reasons. One, this is the featherweight champion going up not just one division, but two, to challenge for the championship. Two, Lawler is much bigger than McGregor and will present all kinds of stylistic problems. And three, both McGregor and Lawler are known as exciting strikers who push forward in search of a knockout.
That blend of styles is the main reason I want the fight. Neither man backs down, and both of them have shown heart and endurance when faced with problematic situations. They’re both accurate and powerful strikers. And Lawler, with his size and power, represents a kind of challenge that McGregor just won’t face against any featherweight or lightweight.
McGregor wants to be known as the greatest fighter of all time. If he were to go in the Octagon and beat Lawler for the welterweight championship, it would be nearly impossible to deny that he’s either the greatest of all time, or at least one of them. It would be a high-stakes fight with all sorts of intriguing and thrilling possibilities.
McGregor would likely be the underdog, and he would have to overcome a lot of obstacles to win the fight. We’d get a true and definitive measure of him as a fighter and as a human being.
The truth is that there are no “bad” fights for McGregor, because he is an event unto himself, and we’ll watch no matter who is standing across the cage from him on fight night.
But we’re talking about UFC 200 here, a historic event and momentous occasion. It is a night and a fight card that calls for extraordinary matchmaking, for a main event that stands alone above even the best fights in the history of the sport.
Lawler vs. McGregor is that fight, and it is the fight I believe we’ll see. McGregor has to beat Diaz first, and that is no easy task. But if he’s able to do so, a welterweight title challenge is the way to go.
Jeremy Botter covers mixed martial arts for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter.
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